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EcbTitle:
EU Data Deteriorates
The euro remained under pressure against most of the majors after disappointing economic data and as the EU summit concluded without giving markets any indication of significant progress. European leaders debated the topic of eurobonds and whether or not it would contribute to growth. Germany remaining firmly opposed to the joint bonds saying that it would give countries with already large deficits incentive to continue to spend.
Economic data out of Europe added to the deterioration in sentiment as German, French, and Eurozone May PMI figures printed below expectations. Manufacturing PMI's in Germany, France, and the EZ fell to 44.4 (cons. 47.0), 45.0 (cons. 46.8), and 45.0 (cons. 46.0) respectively. The below 50 readings indicated ongoing contractions in manufacturing. Furthermore, ...
Title:
PMI Deterioration Could Trigger ECB Cut
PMI Deterioration Could Trigger ECB Cut
- We believe deteriorating PMIs could trigger a move from the ECB. We now expect the ECB to lower interest rates at the June meeting. We expect a one-off rate cut of 25bp - leaving the refi rate at 0.75%. Deposit rates are likely to be left unchanged while the marginal lending rate is expected to be lowered 50bp to 1.25%.
- If market sentiment worsens on Greek or Spanish concerns, this could trigger additional non-standard measures such as longer maturity LTROs. This is not our main scenario though as we continue to expect a viable solution in Greece.
- The euro area composite PMI dropped from 46.7 in April to 45.9 in May driven by a drop in manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo also gave in and dropped in May.
Details and outlook
The euro ...
Title:
European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 24/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Manufacturing PMI (FRA, 07:00 GMT)
- German Manufacturing PMI (GER, 08:00 GMT)
- German Ifo Business Climate Index (GER, 09:00 GMT)
- GDP (QoQ) + Business Investment (QoQ) + BBA Mortgage Approvals (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 14:00 GMT)
- Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
Demand for new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in April, indicating residential real estate may contribute to economic growth for the first time in seven years. Purchases rose to a 343,000 annual rate, up 3.3 percent from a revised 332,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported today in ...
Title:
EUR/USD breaches the 1,26 level
MORNING BRIEFING: EUR/USD breaches the 1,26 level
What’s new:
Equity: Asian and US equities remain pressured on Greece and softer Chinese HSBC flash PMI
Eurozone: The EU summit wants Greece to stay but no tangible measures as yet
Forex: EUR/USD below key support at 1.2650; 1.25 is now eyed
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2555 1.2599 0.01 %
USD/CHF 0.9533 0.9566 0.03 %
GBP/USD 1.5668 1.5701 -0.03 %
USD/JPY 79.41 79.57 -0.02 %
EUR/CHF 1.2009 1.20117 0.00 %
EUR/JPY 99.72 100.18 -0.04 %
Dow Jones 12311.56 12508.3 -0.05 %
Nasdaq 2499.3 2553.19 0.31 %
S&P 500 1296.53 1320.71 0. ...
Title:
Asian Market Update : 24/05/2012
EU leaders call on Greece to work harder, June meeting to provide more details on measures; China flash PMI contracts again Thu, 24 May 2012 1:41 AM EST
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA MAY HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 49.3 PRIOR FINAL (7th consecutive contraction)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 355M V 400ME (11-month high); TRADE BALANCE YTD: -541M V -651ME
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND ANNUAL BUDGET RELEASE: AFFIRMS TARGET OF RETURNING BUDGET TO SURPLUS IN 2015
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CBAHIA HOUSE AFFORDABILITY: 61.8 V 58.5 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN BOJ MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: Increasingly Evident Japan Economy Is Shifting To Pickup
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 HOUSEHOLD CREDIT Y/Y: +7.0% V 7.8% PRIOR (lowest level since Sept 2009)
(VN) Vietnam May CPI m/m: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; y/y: 8.3% v 8.9%e
(JP) ...
Title:
EU Summit to no surprise disappoints pushing euro below $1.26 ahead of PMI
The EU informal summit on Wednesday again failed to address the heightened tension across global markets over the outlook for euro stability, no decisions were taken and only disagreement emerged out of the introductory dinner for Hollande to European procrastination and not unity!
Heavy downward pressure is still seen on the euro as it slumped against its major peers and trading just above a two-year low this morning versus the dollar after it slumped to the lowest since July 2010 on Wednesday at $1.2545 as the leaders added nothing new and further pinned the fears of a Greek collapse out of the euro.
Although former Greek Prime Minister said that there are no preparations in place for a Greek euro exit that he is aware of; news reports yesterday proclaimed the opposite based and ...
Title:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Gold resumes its drop before EU summit
Gold resumed its drop before the carefully watched EU summit which is expected to show discrepancy between European leaders amid concerns Greece amid exit the euro bloc.
The main highlight of the day is the informal EU summit that will tackle euro area fiscal problems, where probably the meeting would show disagreement between Germany and France over introducing Eurobonds.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday she will not be shy to reject Hollande`s idea of introducing Eurobonds to continue its rejection to the common bonds idea which is also favored by Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and peripheral countries.
Thus, with the debt crisis intensifying gold is predicted to face more downside pressure after losing its safe-have characteristic for the dollar.
Yesterday, the OECD ...
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