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JPY Underperforms Amid Downgrade, Ahead of BoJ
USD stronger today against most of the majors amid higher global equities and higher U.S. treasury yields. A ratings downgrade in Japan, dampened EU Summit expectations and low growth projections in Europe, and slowing inflation in the UK are benefitting the USD. The dollar index rebounded from the 81.00 figure but remains below the double top around the 81.75 level and the dollar is currently strongest against the JPY as UST yields advance. On the data front, the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected to soften to 11 from 14) and April existing home sales (forecast to increase 2.9% m/m to 4.61M) are set for release at the top of the hour.
EUR is weaker against most of the G10 currencies amid growth concerns and low expectations of the upcoming EU Summit. The OECD released update ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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USD is Preferred Haven
USD is Preferred Haven
USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures.
EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...
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The Bank of England's Next Move
The Week Ahead
■The Bank of England's next move
■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone?
■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing
■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric
The Bank of England's next move
The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report.
The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...
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Research Note: ECB Preview
On Thursday 3rd May at 1245 BST/ 0745 ET the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce interest rates. It is widely expected to remain on hold at a record low 1%, for the fifth consecutive month. Of more importance to the market will be ECB President Draghi's press conference at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET as we will likely find out the Bank's view on weakening economic growth and sovereign strains in Spain. Draghi may also shed more light on the 'growth compact' that he suggested at a speech to the European Parliament last week.
We don't believe the Bank will announce any new 'special' measures to try and ease the problems in the Eurozone periphery. President Draghi did not hint in his speech last week that the Bank would re-start its Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which purchases domestic ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The grim unemployment figures for March will likely encourage talk about a long overdue ‘growth pact’ for the euro zone"
- Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group
Euro area unemployment rose to the highest level since 1997 in March and manufacturing contracted in April, adding to signs the economy is still far from out of the woods.
USD
"Employment growth is slowing"
- David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector fell to 119,000 in April from a revised 201,000 in March, the ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
GBP
" points to clear, decent construction expansion in April"
- Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. construction sector expanded slower in April, compared ...
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Awful EMU PMI Data Hit The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: German yields set record lows
- Depressing April PMI's and unemployment data in the EMU set the tone for a risk off session. Core bonds surged higher and the German Bund future reached a new record high. In the US session, US equities rebounded and triggered profit taking in US treasuries. German bonds stayed near the highs however.
- Currencies: Awful EMU PMI data hit the euro
- The focus in currency trading shifted from the US to Europe. On Tuesday, EUR/USD declined due to dollar strength in the wake of the ISM release. On Wednesday, an awful set of EMU data triggered a next selling wave. EUR/GBP continues to set new lows, too. We doubt that the Draghi press conference will be able to change the course of events
The Sunrise ...
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EUR/USD Ignored The S&P Downgrade Of Spain
Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012
- Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17)
- Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday).
- Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain.
- On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...
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