December's Activity Is The Lowest

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 17/02/2012 U.S. Review A Few Disappointments Enter The January Data The tone of U.S. economic releases softened a bit this week, though there is no sign that growth in Q1 is about to hit a brick wall. Advance retail sales for January came in at about half the growth rate the consensus had expected- up 0.4 percent, signaling a U.S. consumer that continues to watch their budgets. U.S. industrial production did not grow at all in January though the manufacturing sector is stronger than the industrial production headline might suggest, since most of the weakness came from utilities and the warmer-than-average weather in January. Is U.S. Weather Skewing the January Data? The latest economic data out of the United States was a bit of a let ...

(Reuters) - Gold prices bounced back into positive territory on Tuesday, paring earlier losses in line with a rallying euro after a Greek official said the government is drafting an agreement on a second bailout. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,723.89 an ounce at 1502 GMT (10:02 a.m. EST), having earlier fallen as low as $1,709.29 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery were up $1.70 at $1,726.60. A Greek government official said Greece's government is preparing the text of an agreement on a 130 billion euro bailout that will be put to political leaders for approval, suggesting Athens had largely wrapped up talks with lenders on the rescue. A conclusion to the discussions would likely to support gold, although it has struggled to maintain upward momentum as the ...

(Reuters) - Gold prices eased towards $1,710 an ounce on Tuesday in line with a softening euro as traders awaited a breakthrough on talks over a second bailout deal for Greece, with its leaders fighting to avoid a chaotic debt default. Spot gold eased 0.4 percent to $1,712.79 an ounce at 1210 GMT (7:10 a.m. EST), while U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down $10.20 at $1,714.70. While a retreat in stock markets and the euro kept gold under pressure on Tuesday, the precious metal still is up 10 percent so far this year after December's sharp drop, supported by a Federal Reserve pledge to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy. The euro eased 0.2 percent versus the dollar. For Greece, failure to secure the 130 billion euro ($170 billion) rescue would mean it faces a messy debt ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Royal Dutch Shell announced it plans to invest more to boost production. The company reported it would invest 30 billion US Dollars into the new gas and oil projects in 2012 as compared to 24 billion US Dollars invested in 2011. The move came after the company announced the annual rise in net income by 50% to 28 billion US Dollars in 2011. USD US employment surged more than predicted in January while the unemployment level dropped to the lowest reading in last three years, confirming the US labour market is recovering and raising doubts about Fed's pledge to maintain interest rates down by the end of 2014. The number of payrolls increased by 243 000 and the jobless rate decreased to 8.3% in January. Economists earlier predicted the unemployment level ...

(Reuters) - Home sales hit an 11-month high in December and the number of properties on the market was the fewest in nearly seven years, pointing to a nascent recovery in the housing sector. The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales increased 5 percent to an annual rate of 4.61 million units, with all four of the nation's regions recording gains. Sales of both multifamily and single-family homes rose. "It seems that the housing sector may be slowly picking itself up off of the mat," said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut. The fairly upbeat data and reports that debt-stricken Greece was close to a deal with its private-sector creditors pushed U.S. Treasury debt prices lower. Stocks on Wall Street were mixed, while the dollar was ...

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States The story for the U.S. economy in 2012 is one of increased momentum facing off against strengthening headwinds. This narrative has placed economic forecasters into two camps: pessimists and optimists. As 2011 came to a close, the economic data appeared to line up in the optimistic's camp. However, over the last week, some of the bloom has come off this rosy view. Data on retail sales, net exports and jobless claims paint a less sanguine picture of the state of the economy. In Europe, negotiations between Greek officials and private bondholders over haircuts on Greek debt have stalled and several countries in core Europe have received credit rating downgrades. Canada Canadian real GDP is expected to advance by 2% annualized in the ...

Economic Data Analysis Hurdels Remain as LTROs Ease Euro Tension Euro area developments have been positive so far, but Greek PSI deal looms in week ahead. Wider globe more upbeat. January's US business surveys and Chinese GDP due. Some UK positives this week including retail sales, but short-lived with Q4 contraction likely. A soft Italian debt sale ended an otherwise solid week for Euro area sovereign issuance. ECB President Draghi tentatively pointed to the positive impact of the ECB's 3-year cash injection. How much this is supporting bond purchases remains unclear and our Strategy team has shown how bond payments (coupons and redemptions) will outpace issuance in January. Either way today's auction undid some of the more positive tone in Euro area markets, reversing euro ...

Economic Data Analysis Reality Trumps Shop in Euro Saga Markets disappointed with European package and surveys suggest recession. UK growth outlook dependent on Euro area, weakness to be highlighted in domestic indicators. US Federal Reserve to keep policy unchanged on signs of improving outlook. At the time of writing, the details on the EU Summit are scarce, but the direction of a broad ‘fiscal compact' seems to be clearly emerging. Yet markets are underwhelmed by what appears to be a reaffirmation of the Stability and Growth Pact principles. They also remain disappointed following ECB President Draghi's press conference yesterday, where he appeared to go out of his way to close off the possibility of using the ECB's balance sheet to help prevent contagion across the Euro ...

Economic Data Analysis Fears of US Slowdown Overdone The ISM and nonfarm payroll reports for May will provide an important steer for markets this week. We expect above-consensus outturns to help redress some of the recent concerns about the US growth outlook. Euro area peripheral tensions remain acute, but we believe are overdone. With Germany opposed to a debt 'reprofiling' in Greece, an easing in tensions may soon clear the path for a recovery in risk sentiment. Forward looking indicators dominate the UK calendar with the latest PMIs and Lloyds Business Barometer watched for their implications for Q2/Q3 GDP. US non-farm payrolls (May): The recent patch of soft US activity data has raised the significance of Friday's report, as payroll employment is an important coincident ...