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Days The Pair Has TradedTitle:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/09/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks dropped for a second day, to the lowest level in almost four months, as investors awaited a resolution to the political impasse in Greece and as Spanish credit risk surged. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1.1 percent to 247.75 at 2:15 p.m. in London, the lowest since Jan. 13, as the euro weakened for an eighth day. The Stoxx 600 has tumbled 9 percent from this year’s high on March 16, trimming this year’s advance to 1.3 percent.
USD
U.S. stock futures retreated, indicating the Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop for a sixth straight day, as Greece’s political impasse intensified concern about a worsening of the European sovereign-debt crisis.
GBP
U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year last month as poor weather ...
Title:
Contending With Greece And Spain
Risk assets continue to get sold today and the back-drop remains fragile. The leader of the radical left Syrizia party in Greece has two days to try to form a government, thus expect anti-austerity/ anti bailout rhetoric to continue to come out of Athens today. It appears that Tsipars – the head of Syrizia - wants to hold new elections to try and win the premiership. This only extends the uncertainty about Greece remaining in the Eurozone, which spooked risk assets yesterday.
Spanish banks
That isn't the only thing that investors need to contend with. The Spanish bond market is pricing in the risk of the government needing to bail out its banking sector, hence why its bond yields are flying higher this morning. The 10-year yield has risen nearly 25 basis points so far today and is back ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 09/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis damps demand for German products in Europe but Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa should generally be able to compensate declining sales."
- Gerd Hassel, an economist at BHF Bank AG
German industrial production unexpectedly soared in March, adding to signs the euro zone’s largest economy is weathering debt crisis. Production jumped 2.8 per cent from February, when it declined 0.2 per cent, said the Economy Ministry on Tuesday.
USD
"People are preparing for a shock that may or may not occur."
- Michael Holland, chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co.
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as Greece’s bailout pledge came into question.
GBP
"The health of the housing market is a reverberation of consumer confidence and credit ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 08/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
" show that despite the crisis in the euro area, Germany is growing and benefiting from a revival in international trade."
- Klaus Baader, senior economist at Societe Generale SA
German factory orders rose by more than forecast in March, a sign Europe’s largest economy is weathering the debt crisis.
USD
"From where we sit right now, we think the economy looks fundamentally stronger."
- Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday after Francois Hollande was elected as a French president and Greek voters turned to antibailout parties.
GBP
"… the challenging economic backdrop suggests that a significant acceleration in prices or activity is unlikely in the near term."
- Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/07/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France has elected new president, Francois Hollande who polled about 52% of the votes. Mr Hollande said that he is proud to return hope to people again. He also announced that he would attempt to rework deal regarding sovereign debt in the Euro Zone countries to promote economic expansion.
USD
The smalest payroll increase in last 6 months has not influenced the investors who still do not forecast another wave of recession in the US. Better housing and employment data has encouraged experts to believe that from the fundamental perspective the world's largest economy is on the path to recovery.
GBP
May 7 was a bank holiday in Great Britain.
CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2013 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds ...
Title:
When Will Volatility Pick Up
The Week Ahead
Highlights
When will volatility pick up
Digesting payrolls
Will there be more QE for the UK?
Data Watch
When will volatility pick up?
Volatility in US Treasuries is at its lowest level since 2007, so too is volatility in the FX options market for short-term EURUSD products and the Vix has fallen sharply since peaking in autumn 2011. Yet Europe's sovereign stresses remain as strong as ever, Spain and Italy are struggling to sell their sovereign debt to anyone bar their domestic banking sectors and election risks are enormous as Greece and France go to the polls on Sunday.
So why is volatility so low? The answer lies with central banks and fairly tight FX ranges. When central banks come in and pledge that interest rates will remain extremely low until 2014, ...
Title:
Major Currency Cross Rates Little Changed Ahead Of The Payrolls
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income ECB can't move global bonds
- Global core bonds ended the session unchanged, as initial disappointment that the ECB wasn't more dovish dissipated fast. Today's payrolls are key and might decide whether the 6-week rally is over or has one more leg.
Currencies: Major currency cross rates little changed ahead of the payrolls
- EUR/USD gained temporarily during the ECB press conference as Draghi was less dovish than some in the market had expected. However, the move was technically insignificant as sentiment on risk remained fragile. Today, the payrolls are the key factor for (currency) trading. Investors might stay cautions on the euro to avoid this weekend's political event risk.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities dropped for a ...
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