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Data Releases From KeyTitle:
EUR/USD Rebound On Profit Taking
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: limited profit taking on core bond markets
- Global core bond markets fell prey to some profit taking in a thin, dull trading session. However, given the strength of equities, bond losses were very limited and occurred at the onset of trading. Today, the eco calendar remains thin and the profit taking might go some further in the run-up to tomorrow's informal EU Summit.
- Currencies EUR/USD rebound on profit taking
- The correction in EUR/USD was prolonged, but the euro gains were modest and mostly technical in nature. The UK inflation report is the eye-catcher of the day as it may influence sterling. However, overall trading might again be thin ahead of tomorrow's euro Summit.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second ...
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Greek Chaos Continues But Solution Ultimately Found
- While waiting for the Greek election on 17 June we are likely to see continued high uncertainty and continued high stress in the markets. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Amid this uncertainty, Greek citizens are likely to withdraw more money from their banks and this could escalate into a real bank run.
- A major game of chicken has started between the EU on the one hand and Greek politicians on the other.
- The EU is likely to stand firm on its demands for Greece to deliver austerity and give only a few concessions. The rethoric from the left coalition party Syriza is likely to continue to be fiercely against the EU as it is aiming to become the biggest party and get 50 bonus mandates for this.
- We look at three different post-election scenarios. ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Widespread discussion of a Greek exit continued, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades and periphery sovereign debt yields moved higher.
- Financial markets have responded to these global worries with increased risk aversion. The S&P is poised to end the week 3% lower, and 10-year treasuries are yielding just 1.7%.
- U.S. economic data has proved somewhat more encouraging, but growth is still struggling to breakout beyond a moderate pace. This has kept the possibility of additional monetary stimulus alive even if the threshold remains quite high.
Canada
- Recent economic indicators are showing a resurgence of strength in the Canadian economy. Strong ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 05/16/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
Claimant Count Change (GB, 09:30 GMT)
Core CPI (YoY) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
German 10-Year Bund Auction (GER, 10:30 GMT)
BoE Gov King Speaks + BoE Inflation Report (GB, 10:30 GMT)
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) + Building Permits + Housing Starts (U.S., 13:30 GMT)
Industrial Production (MoM) (U.S., 14:15 GMT)
ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 15:00 GMT)
FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
The Department of Labor revealed that consumer prices in U.S were flat in April compared to the previous month. While the Commerce Department said that U.S retail sales edged up by 0.1 percent in April following a revised 0.7 percent increase in March and the business inventories rose by 0.3 percent in March following a 0.6 percent increase ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 08/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
" show that despite the crisis in the euro area, Germany is growing and benefiting from a revival in international trade."
- Klaus Baader, senior economist at Societe Generale SA
German factory orders rose by more than forecast in March, a sign Europe’s largest economy is weathering the debt crisis.
USD
"From where we sit right now, we think the economy looks fundamentally stronger."
- Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday after Francois Hollande was elected as a French president and Greek voters turned to antibailout parties.
GBP
"… the challenging economic backdrop suggests that a significant acceleration in prices or activity is unlikely in the near term."
- Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s ...
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Euro drops on anti-austerity votes but off lows
The euro dropped broadly on Monday after elections in Greece and France cast doubt on politicians' commitment to austerity plans aimed at tackling the euro zone debt crisis.
Renewed fears about the stability of the euro zone made the common currency pierce the key psychological level of $1.30 on its way to hitting a three-month low against the dollar in the overnight session.
Technical support helped pare losses during New York trade, though the single currency looked likely to remain under pressure in days ahead.
The biggest blow to the common currency was the Greek election, in which the two main parties that support the nation's international bailout failed to secure a parliamentary majority. This threw into question the future of the program and potentially the country's membership ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/07/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France has elected new president, Francois Hollande who polled about 52% of the votes. Mr Hollande said that he is proud to return hope to people again. He also announced that he would attempt to rework deal regarding sovereign debt in the Euro Zone countries to promote economic expansion.
USD
The smalest payroll increase in last 6 months has not influenced the investors who still do not forecast another wave of recession in the US. Better housing and employment data has encouraged experts to believe that from the fundamental perspective the world's largest economy is on the path to recovery.
GBP
May 7 was a bank holiday in Great Britain.
CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2013 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 07/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The U.S. labor-market report will further erode investor confidence"
- Markus Allenspach, head of bond research at Julius Baer Group Ltd.
European stocks extended weekly losses, after a report showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in April. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased 1.76 per cent to 253.00. Germany’s DAX Index tumbled 1.99 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index contracted 1.90 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index lost 1.93 per cent to 5,655.06.
USD
"We’re still very much on the recovery path, but we’ve got a huge amount of ground to make up in the labor market"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector in April, tumbled to 115,000 from 154,000 the ...
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New European Politics, New Euro Low
The new Euro-zone politics will dominate the first part of the week and, in all probability, the week as a whole. The Euro-zone is heading for catastrophe if policies are unchanged and electorates are relentless in demanding change as governments are ousted across Europe. Increased political risk will result in a weaker Euro. Any shift in strategy will, initially at least, mean a weaker Euro. The critical EUR/USD 1.30 support zone could provide a stern test for bears, but the Euro is likely to break lower and threaten 2012 lows.
Confirmation of Hollande’s victory in France marks the end of the Merkel-Sarkozy dominance at the political heart of Europe. In reality, Germany was dominating the agenda, certainly in the key crisis period at the end of 2011, but the illusion of a key alliance ...
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