Cyclical Areas Of The Market

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/03/2012 U.S. Review A Better Tone to the Data but Growth Remains Sluggish The economic data clearly have a better feel to them but there is no evidence of a sudden break out to the upside. Fourth quarter real GDP was revised up to a 3.0 percent annual rate and inflation was also revised slightly higher. Personal income came in slightly below expectations but upward revisions to previously published data put the saving rate at 4.6 percent in January, well above the earlier reported level of 4.0 percent. Manufacturing data were mixed, with orders down but purchasing managers' surveys remaining strong. Lots of Good News but Still Only Modest Growth We received a full complement of economic reports this week, providing new intel ...

Economic Data Analysis Groundhog Week? Greek negotiations drag to the wire, no room for further slippage this week. More QE this year? BoE Inflation Report awaited for guidance. A loosening in Chinese monetary policy could be as soon as this week. EU finance ministers rejection of Greece's latest £3.3bn austerity package puts the spectre of Greek default firmly back in the spotlight. All eyes wil l be on the results of Sunday's Parliamentary vote, which Greek Finance Minister Venizelos is pitching as a referendum on Euro membership itself. Assuming Greece can salvage a deal, the Euro Group could sign off on this at a meeting on Wednesday allowing the Greek PSI deal to be agreed on Thursday. Though this misses the supposed 13 February ‘deadline', officials are hopeful that a ...

(Reuters) - European shares hit a new six-month high on Wednesday, with cyclical stocks extending a strong run as investors became more confident that economic growth would boost company earnings, and eclipse concerns about Greece. At 1154 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was up 0.4 percent at 1,076.55 points, having earlier gone as high as 1,079.97, a level not seen since early August. The index is up more than 26 percent from the 2011 low it hit in September. Recent data, such as U.S. jobs creation figures, has helped make investors more optimistic. "A lot of the economic data has been trending better, such as from the United States and China and parts of Europe. You want your portfolio to be well represented in more cyclical areas of the market," said ...

(Reuters) - European shares rose on Tuesday, hitting a five-month high and surging past a technical resistance level, led by carmakers and miners after higher-than-expected Chinese GDP data showed demand prospects were improving for companies in these sectors. Fourth-quarter Chinese GDP eased fears of a hard landing for the country and boosted investor risk appetite towards companies which have business in China such as autos and miners. Cyclical carmakers were the top performers after the Chinese data, with the STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts index .SXAP jumping 3.5 percent. The auto sector has gained 6.6 percent in the past two days as the positive economic data as well as bullish broker comment has given support to the sector. "Companies in the auto sector are likely to ...

U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday after a hefty year-end rally and the S&P 500 erased gains for the year on renewed concerns about the euro zone's financial health. The selloff followed the euro's slide to an 11-month low against the U.S. dollar as regional debt worries prompted a wave of selling, with thin trading exacerbating volatility. "It seems like the weakness in euro, breaking that $1.30 level, really made investors push that 'sell' button," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "But it's somewhat of an exaggerated move, considering that there isn't much volume, and this could end in a one-day selloff." A recent rally on Wall Street had been supported by a series of positive U.S. economic data that ...

(Reuters) - U.S. farmland prices in the third quarter saw their biggest surge in over three decades in an accelerating agricultural boom that has so far defied fears of a bubble about to burst. Prices hit record highs in the U.S. Plains, where wheat and cattle dominate production, and jumped 25 percent in the Midwest Corn Belt where bumper grain crops and recovering livestock markets put more money in farmers' wallets and enticed investors to bid up for the fertile ground, according to two Federal Reserve bank surveys issued on Tuesday. "It is amazing," said Carl Sousek, who has farmed for 30 years in east-central Nebraska. "I've been in this business long enough, I remember working a night shift just to get by, to be able to buy Christmas gifts for the kids. These are good times." ...

The Weekly Bottom Line: 01/10/2011 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States Germany ratified the terms of the second Greek bailout package on Thursday. That may have bought Europe more time, but the reality is Greece will need to default. A redefinition of the euro area would be ugly for everyone, most of all Greece. Given the social and economic consequences of such an outcome, it is likely that European politicians would opt for some sort of fiscal transfer union among the zone's member states. Whatever the outcome in Europe, the U.S. won't be immune from the fallout. But the country will have a better chance of holding onto market confidence if it continues working towards a credible plan for medium-term deficit reduction while avoiding a premature tightening of the public ...

The global economy is more sluggish than first thought, government bonds offer no real return, gold is super expensive and stock markets sell off at the slightest setback. What is an investor to do? The answer, to borrow a phrase from Watergate, is to follow the money -- find out who has the cash and go there. This, for many investors, means top-notch corporate credit and shares in solid companies not subject to cyclical swings. For some, it also means those emerging markets with either big surpluses or higher interest-rate expectations. That's for the short-term. Longer-term, investors still favor a broad range of equities to outperform bonds. Buffeted on all sides -- from weak stocks to low-yielding bonds -- many investors are looking to ride out the storm by investing in investment ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Weak Jobs, a One-off or a Trend? This week's employment report is a challenge to our view that the economy is leaving the spring slowdown behind and moving into a period of trend-like growth of 3 percent with moderate job growth as well. Yet, the longer-term problems of a generation of overpromising and underfunding challenges both public and private decision makers. Federal and state policymakers have consistently failed to adequately fund entitlement spending. Meanwhile, households have underfunded their retirement ambitions. The adjustments in both areas are still ahead of us. Weak Jobs, a One-off or a Trend? This week's employment report challenges our view that the economy is leaving the spring slowdown behind and moving ...