Cycle In Unemployment The More Pressure

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played" - Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March. USD "What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar" - Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...

The focus shifts from Greece and the political tension to the United Kingdom today, where the royal economy will provide markets will data regarding the performance of the labor sector amid the current economic situation and the spending cuts adopted by the British government, which attempts to trim the huge deficit the nation handles. The performance of the labor sector is not expected to improve in April, where the claimant count rate, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the royal economy, could have expanded in the month to 5.0% from the previous of 4.9%, as additional five thousand Britons could have applied for benefits in the related month. Other bearish signs will be provided by the ILO unemployment report, where the joblessness in the United ...

The European Commission supported volatility to extend in the market amid the current deteriorating sentiment in the market, where the Commission revised growth forecast lower for the euro-area region adding concerns the current austerity-linked solution is weighing sharply on growth, forcing more pressures on lawmakers to find another way around to hammer that debt crisis as well as boosting growth, but without adopting further austerity. The critical economic situation in Europe is worsening and getting more complicated, where lawmakers cannot find a way to fight the debt crisis without affecting growth aspects, where the sharp austerity adopted across Europe has brought a technical recession confirmed in most of the nations in the euro zone, fueling the debt crisis to expand further ...

U.S. Review Modest Growth on a Broadening Base - The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter. - Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations. - Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent. Modest Growth on a Broadening Base This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...

EUR - Preview: If ECB Provides No Silver Bullets, EUR Likely to Extend Decline Release: ECB Interest Rate Decision Consensus Forecast: 1.0% Previous: 1.0% Date/Time: 05/03/12 7:45AM EDT (11:45 GMT) Release: ECB President Draghi Press Conference Date/Time: 05/03/12 8:30AM EDT (12:30 GMT) Can ECB Offer Any Help to Euro-Zone Economy Seeing a Deepening Recession? The European Central Bank decision comes amid increasing signs that the recession seen in the economic bloc is deepening. Data from Italy showed unemployment rate at its highest in the euro era, Germany unexpectedly added more unemployed, and the overall euro area saw its unemployment rate rise to 10.9%. The final version of the manufacturing PMI showed weakness across the board and has increased concerns that austerity measures ...

The sentiment deteriorated last week in European markets after the flow of downbeat fundamentals and events, which weighed sharply on the European common currency; however, the euro was able to extend the gains recorded a week earlier as growth data from the world's largest economy missed estimates, sending the U.S. dollar south and vice versa the euro and sterling pound to the upside. The downbeat growth data saved the week for the common currency, where the euro after hitting a low of 1.3156 on Friday rebounded sharply to the upside, despite the several bearish factors affecting the currency, where Spain was downgraded on Friday as well on downbeat growth projections, yet this reason was insufficient to grab the euro south as markets were focused on the U.S. GDP figures. However, we ...

The Week Ahead Highlights US employment data in focus Bank of Japan underwhelms RBA likely to cut The SNB talks tough on the Swissie Is the UK economy really that weak? The Eurozone's growth pact US employment data in focus Earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its 2-day policy meeting. The bank kept policy on hold and upgraded the economic assessment, however comments from Ben Bernanke - which did not provide any new insight in our view - kept Treasury yields low, equity markets supported, and the dollar soft with QE3 speculation back into focus. Fed projections showed upwards revision to real GDP growth with forecasts of 2.4%-2.9% for 2012 up from the prior 2.2%-2.7% estimate and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 7.8%-8% ...

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States Economic data out of the U.S. gave mixed signals of the state of the economy. While retail sales started the week with a strong 0.8% increase, industrial production stalled and housing starts and existing home sales both fell. A feeling of déjà vu has gripped economy watchers remembering back to last year's spring slowdown. While we expect growth to slow from relatively strong first quarter growth, we continue to expect real GDP growth of around 2.0%. The recent decline in gasoline prices contributes to our relative optimism. The U.S. economy is healing, but the shock from the financial crisis is still reverberating and will keep a lid on growth rates. The biggest risk to economic growth remains fiscal drag in 2013. Canada The Bank ...

Market Drivers - Currencies Today's Comment The Riksbank maintained its interest rate and hence it surprised quite a few investors who had expected some easing. Our macroeconomists expect that Sweden has seen the lows for the interest rate in this interest-rate cycle. Jyske Bank expects that the Riksbank will initiate a rising interest-rate cycle as of the H2 2013. After the interest-rate announcement, EURSEK fell by four figures and, furthermore, it put NOKSEK under pressure; this latter cross rate was the one that saw the strongest reaction (fell by about 1%). We expect that from now on NOKSEK will continue the uptrend after this brief correction phase. Surprisingly, the minutes from the Bank of England showed a change in the distribution of the votes of the central bank members. The ...