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Currently Testing The SupportTitle:
JPY Advances ahead of Bank of Japan
USD remains soft after Bernanke indicated that the door was open for more stimulus if necessary at yesterday's press conference. Markets seemed to focus on this despite the upward revisions to the growth outlook and downward estimates of the unemployment rate this year. Weekly initial jobless claims today came in higher than consensus with a print of 388k from the prior 389k which was revised higher from 386k. The 4-week moving average in initial claims rose by over 6k for the third straight week - not an encouraging sign for the labor market. With employment struggling to gain traction and mixed interpretations of yesterday's FOMC meeting, markets are likely to focus on data surprises and price action will be impacted by QE3 speculation as it is still on the table.
UST yields are lower ...
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Dollar Weaker ahead of FOMC
Dollar Weaker ahead of FOMC
USD softer against all of its major counterparts except for the British pound. Sentiment is improving today as global equities are broadly higher and yield spreads in Europe continue to ease. US Treasury yields are up with the 10-year yields approaching the pivotal 2.00% and the dollar index is lower as it remains below its daily cloud and Kijun line. Due out shortly at 0830ET are March durable goods orders which are expected to decline by -1.7% from the prior +2.2% on the headline print.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its 2-day meeting today and with no change expected on policy, the focus will be on the bank’s updated projections and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference. With recent commentary from some of the more hawkish Fed officials ( ...
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Technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair on April 25th, 2012
Commentary of the GBP/USD pair :
The pair GBP/USD is currently testing the resistance at 1.6150
All indicators are bullish.
The pair is still moving above its long term bullish slant (black line).
We continue to advise long positions as far as 1.6050 is support.
The breakout of 1.6150 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 1.62.
In case of return below 1.6050, we will wait the breakout of 1.5950 to advise short positions.
See the previous analysis of the GBP/USD pair of April 24th, 2012
GBP/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair on April 25th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CHF pair :
The pair USD/CHF is currently testing the support at 0.91.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still moving below its bearish slant (purple line).
We now advise to trade only short positions as far as 0.9173 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.91 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.9050.
In case of return above 0.9173, we will wait the breakout of 0.92 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CHF pair of April 24th, 2012
USD/CHF Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair on April 25th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/JPY pair :
The pair USD/JPY made yesterday a false breakout of the support at 81.06 and is currently testing a pullback on 81.50.
Indicators are globaly bullish.
The pair got out again of its bearish channel (black lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 81.50 is resistance.
The breakout of 81.06 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 80.37
In case of return above 81.50, we will wait the breakout of 81.81 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the USD/JPY pair of April 24th, 2012
USD/JPY Analysis
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Rally looks fragile, needs some support
Higher-yielders recovered briefly some of yesterdays losses, risky assets look fragile ahead of the main releases from the U.S; in the form of consumer confidence and new home sales. Confidence among consumers is expected to show a slight setback while new home sales expected to signal further recovery within the housing sector.
In general, the risk-off theme continues to dominate the scenes , while markets eagerly waiting tomorrow's FOMC meeting outcome for a clue that will outline the next short term direction.
The EUR/USD rebounded slightly currently trading just below the 50-days SMA; meanwhile a bearish technical pattern could be in the process of completion, where we expect the bearish sentiment to dampen further upside for the pair. Anyhow, 1.3210-1.3220 is the main resistance ...
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One unpleasant day
The week started with a flow of negative charges starting from downbeat data from China, elections in France showed anti-fiscal pact Mr. Hollande win the first round, followed by a deeper contraction in Euro’s manufacturing and services sectors. Markets were unpleasant; where risky assets took a harsh hit, looked powerless awaiting a helping hand, which may find in the awaited FED meeting Wednesday.
With the lack of economic releases this afternoon, the negative sentiment is expected to continue dominating the scene. The EUR/USD pair fell sharply after completing a test of the 50-days SMA, where the overall ranging stance remains intact so far. The pair has formed a possible bearish pattern, thus we look for a retest of the major psychological support at 1.3000, which is the main barrier ...
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USD, JPY Gain Amid Political Uncertainty, Soft PMI's
USD is higher after rising political uncertainty in Europe and disappointing PMI's sent risk sharply lower. European equities are broadly and significantly lower with most of the major indices down well over -2%, Asian markets finished in the red, and U.S. stock futures are currently down about -1%. The dollar index is rebounding after last week's decline and is approaching the base of the daily cloud and Tenkan line which converge around the 79.65 level. The buck is stronger against all of the G10 currencies with the expection of the yen which is also being support on risk aversion flows. There are no economic data releases of note out of the US today.
EUR weaker amid increasing political uncertainty, specifically in Netherlands and France. The failure of Dutch austerity talks suggest ...
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Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
If you looked at the headlines from the weekend you may have thought that risk was poised to rally today. The first round of the French Presidential election was a tighter race than expected. Socialist Hollande won 27.1% of the vote while Sarkozy was not that far behind with 26.7%. The French left, which has called for ECB rate cuts and a re-negotiation of the EU's Fiscal Pact, did less well than expected, which should have calmed markets this morning. However, weak economic data out of the currency bloc combined with fears about the Dutch triple A credit rating has caused risk aversion to grip the markets at the start of this week.
Dutch budget wrangling hurts risk sentiment
The Netherlands has overtaken France as the largest political risk this week ...
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