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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013"
- Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG
Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday.
USD
"Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens"
- Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital
The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55.
GBP
Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...
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Gold pares some of the losses, yet remains under pressure
Gold pared some of its losses after falling for three consecutive sessions on Tuesday trading amid political concerns in Greece which is making investor`s wary of buying bullions or risky assets.
On the daily basis, gold is showing a drop where it fell to a low of $1548.33 an ounce yet a rebound on the short-time frames managed to push price up to $1553.97, noting that it opened today`s trades at $1.556.37.
The yellow metal benefited from the better-than-expected German GDP report which showed that the euro area`s biggest economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, beating expectations of 0.1% expansion.
Yet, the main focus will turn to euro area GDP due at 09:00 GMT, where expectations are in favor of 0.3% drop in the first quarter, following the 0.2% contraction in the last quarter of ...
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Euro near 3-1/2-month low vs dollar on Greek uncertainty
The euro slid to a 3-1/2-month low in volatile trade on Friday as political uncertainty in Greece and hefty losses disclosed by U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase spurred risk aversion.
The euro has dropped against the dollar in eight of 10 sessions for a cumulative 2.4 percent decline, hit by the turmoil in Greece. Inconclusive election results last Sunday threw the country into political disarray and raised the risk that it could exit the euro zone and the European Union.
Greek Socialist party leader Evangelos Venizelos on Friday said he was unable to form a government, sending the country hurtling toward a new vote.
"If the same thing happens in the second round and you do not get a government in Greece, we think that will weigh on the euro," said Tom Higgins, global macro strategist at ...
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Crude oil tries not to decline
Crude oil is being so volatile at today’s session after huge losses achieved during the last six sessions, the EFSF played a significant role in easing tensions today after it approved to give Greece a 5.2 billion euro tranche which eased fears over the near-term outlook for the country.
After achieving huge losses, the door is open for crude to rise slightly and any small positive factor would support it and help it in climbing upwards. And we can see this in today’s trading which showing some positivity due to EFSF’s decision.
However, this optimism that seen in Europe is temporary and would be vanished soon if nothing major comes out, as the 5.2 billion euro tranche for Greece would let the country to meet its short commitments, but what it will do for the longer commitment if lenders ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 08/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
" show that despite the crisis in the euro area, Germany is growing and benefiting from a revival in international trade."
- Klaus Baader, senior economist at Societe Generale SA
German factory orders rose by more than forecast in March, a sign Europe’s largest economy is weathering the debt crisis.
USD
"From where we sit right now, we think the economy looks fundamentally stronger."
- Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday after Francois Hollande was elected as a French president and Greek voters turned to antibailout parties.
GBP
"… the challenging economic backdrop suggests that a significant acceleration in prices or activity is unlikely in the near term."
- Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/07/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France has elected new president, Francois Hollande who polled about 52% of the votes. Mr Hollande said that he is proud to return hope to people again. He also announced that he would attempt to rework deal regarding sovereign debt in the Euro Zone countries to promote economic expansion.
USD
The smalest payroll increase in last 6 months has not influenced the investors who still do not forecast another wave of recession in the US. Better housing and employment data has encouraged experts to believe that from the fundamental perspective the world's largest economy is on the path to recovery.
GBP
May 7 was a bank holiday in Great Britain.
CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2013 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds ...
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Gold comes under pressure on French and Greek elections results
Gold came under pressure on Monday`s early trading after the results of French and Greek elections raised worries the euro area would not be able to jolt out of the debt crisis.
The shiny metal rose on Friday after the U.S. jobs report added to speculations the Fed will add to stimulus to bolster recovery, thereby enhancing demand on gold as an inflation hedge.
However, gold showed decline today after the win of the Socialist party candidate in the French Presidential elections, noting his intention to lower austerity and reinforce growth which is against the German-led austerity measures.
Hollande said after his wining in the elections “austerity is not inevitable,” raising concerns that there would be a conflict between the euro area`s second biggest economy and other euro area ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
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