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Currency Ending LowerTitle:
Euro well bid, Aussie well offerd
The Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets with a 50bps rate cut this morning, the bank cut interet rate from 4.25% to 3.75% while markets were expecting an imminent cut of 25bps. Australia’s slowing economy and headache coming overseas from Europe in addition to the slowdown in its major trade partner China were the main reasons behind the aggressive move. Thus, we have seen the Australian and Newzealand dollar under pressure today.
While most European markets were off for Labor day, the euro was well bid as the common currency bottomed at the support area and the 50-days SMA around 1.3220, to resume the bullish bias retesting areas near 1.3300 again, however 1.3300 seen the next important pivot for the pair over the short term. Above 1.3300 the door could be open towards March high ...
Title:
European Market Update : 01/05/2012
UK PMI Manufacturing comes in below expectations but holds above the 50 level
Economic Data
(AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts Cash Target by 50bps to 3.75%; more than expected
(PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e
(JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 92.0% v 78.2% prior
(IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$13.9B v -$13.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.7% v + 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.3% v 20.7% prior
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.5 prior
(AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 99.5 v 99.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -4.2% v 2.1% prior
(DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.5 v 51.5e (lowest since Dec 2011)
(DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 61.8 v 53.0 prior (12-month ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 01/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We fear things are likely to get worse before they get better"
- Martin van Vliet, a senior euro-region economist at ING Bank
Spain sank into recession in the first quarter of 2012. The economy contracted 0.3 per cent, after shrinking by the same amount in the previous quarter, Madrid-based National Statistics Institute data showed on Monday.
USD
"What was encouraging was that the income numbers improved. Our expectation is that job growth does increase gradually"
- Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
U.S. consumer spending was boosted by higher than expected incomes, said the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Monday. Household purchases increased 0.3 per cent. Incomes gained 0.4 per cent, the most in three months.
GBP
"This is year three of a ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/01/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
The US stock markets opened the trading week on the negative territory after strong rally last week. Personal spending was 0.3%, against expectations for 0.4%, and personal income was 0.4% against expectations for 0.3%. Today's main data is the ISM manufacturing PMI. Pay attention to the fact that many European banks are closed today due to holiday, which might cause a narrow range in the forex markets.
USD/CHF
The USD did not make a significant change against the major currencies yesterday, in spite the declines in Wall Street. As stated, many banks are closed today in Europe and this might give the USD the opportunity to rise against the European currencies, such as the Swiss Franc. The pair reached the lower boundary of the triangle, which we have been following for ...
Title:
Euro posts worst month vs dollar since December
(Reuters) - The euro dropped against the dollar on Monday and notched its worst monthly performance since December, weighed down by news of Spain slipping back into recession and signs of weaker economic momentum in the United States.
Investors were also wary of buying euros before weekend elections in France and Greece and a European Central Bank meeting this week that could further knock down sentiment.
"Risk aversion was today's theme, with the economic outlook for the euro zone looking bleak," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
"In the U.S., overall deterioration in economic data has left the door squarely open for the Fed to add more stimulus."
Data on U.S. spending and business activity in the Midwest reinforced that view that the U.S. ...
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Gold posts small monthly loss in April
(Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Monday on a better technical outlook after last week's gains, but the precious metal finished slightly lower for the month of April in a narrow trading range.
Bullion dropped about 0.3 percent in April, posting a third straight monthly decline for the first time since 2000. A strong run of U.S. economic data have hit hopes for more monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, denting investment appetite for the precious metal.
In early trading on Monday, bullion tumbled 1 percent in heavy volume. Then it gradually turned higher. Analysts cited technical buying as the metal held above key support last week.
"Gold posted a bullish outside week last week, adding further fuel to our belief that a base is being formed for the next rally higher," Tom Fitzpatrick, ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 30/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Unemployment in Spain approached a new record of 5.64 million in March while the jobless rate topped 24.4%, reported the national statistics office. Analysts expect the Spain's officials to confirm that the country is falling into recession. Meanwhile, retail sales in the country declined by 3.7% in March on an annual basis.
USD
US consumer spending surged in March, adding to the previous gains as incomes increased. Household purchases that account about 70% of the US economy surged by 0.3%, following a 0.9% increase in February. Experts projected consumer spending to rise by 0.4%. Meanwhile, incomes eased up 0.4%, indicating the largest increase in the last three months.
GBP
UK home value accelerated in April, the second straight month, Hometrack Ltd said on ...
Title:
Euro slips vs dollar as European stress persists
(Reuters) - The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday and was on track for its worst month since December, pressured by nagging euro zone stresses as German retail sales were softer than expected and Spain slipped into recession.
Investors were also wary of buying euros before weekend elections in France and Greece and a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later in the week that could knock sentiment in the single currency.
"There is clear risk aversion in the market," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX research at GFT in Jersey City, New Jersey, citing data showing Spain's slide into recession and the weaker-than-expected German data. "In short, the news from Europe continues to point to further structural stress in the system."
The euro failed to gain traction versus the ...
Title:
EUR/USD Ignored The S&P Downgrade Of Spain
Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012
- Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17)
- Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday).
- Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain.
- On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...
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