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Credit Markets Over The ShortTitle:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
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Euro sinks to 21-month low as Greek exit fears rise
(Reuters) - The euro plunged to a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as investors dumped the currency on growing fears of a Greek euro zone exit and widespread doubts about the outcome of an EU summit later in the day.
EU leaders are expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but are not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany's strong opposition to joint euro bonds.
Investors are doubtful that the leaders will come up with any measures to calm fears that have grown since an inconclusive Greek election earlier this month left the country on the path to bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro zone.
"The whole problem of Greece, of fiscal retrenchment in the euro zone, the lack of growth across the region, and the ...
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Fitch Fires Another Round
Forex News and Events:
Fitch downgraded Japan by two notches yesterday afternoon from AA to A+ with outlook negative. The agency justified the credit rating cuts by saying that the Japanese government isn’t reactive enough in tackling its “high and rising public debt ratios”. The move came in a few hours after the OECD urged Japan to prioritize the implementation of a fiscal consolidation plan, as debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 200 percent, and budget deficits are forecast at 10 percent of GDP for the current year. PM Yoshihiko Noda has staked his political career on a law to increase sales tax to 10% with the goal of offsetting rising social security costs mainly due to the fast ageing of the population. But the opposition that controls the upper house is refusing to negotiate and is ...
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Euro Rebound Short-Lived
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Profit taking continued, but now concluded?
- The profit taking on global core bond markets continued in the run-up to tonight's informal EU-Summit. Spanish and Italian spreads decreased significantly but yields remain at elevated levels. Today, the eco calendar is again thin and trading will again be driven by sentiment.
- Currencies: Euro rebound short-lived On
- Tuesday, the euro came again under pressure even as the global context was not that negative. Sentiment on risk was constructive and intra-EMU spreads narrowed, but all this didn't prevent investors to use any upticks in the single currency to further reduce exposure. The key 1.2642/24 support is again coming within reach.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of ...
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Euro hits 21-month low versus dollar before EU summit
(Reuters) - The euro hit a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday ahead of an EU meeting later, with investors doubtful that leaders would come up with measures to stem the euro zone debt crisis.
An informal EU summit is expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but was not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany remains strongly opposed to joint euro bonds.
The euro fell to $1.2615, dropping below the 2012 low of $1.2624 set in January to mark its lowest since August 2010.
Fears that Greece may have to leave the euro grew after Dow Jones earlier quoted former prime minister Lucas Papademos as saying Greece had no choice but to stick with a painful austerity program or face a damaging exit from the euro zone.
However, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The rally is mostly technically driven after we became quite oversold last week."
- Raimund Saxinger, a fund manager at Trust Investment GmbH
European stocks rose by the most in a month on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.91 per cent to 244.76. Germany’s DAX Index edged higher 1.65 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index added 1.88 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.86 per cent to 5,403.28
USD
"People are becoming more confident about job prospects and about taking on mortgages."
- Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities Inc.
U.S. existing home sales rose in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million from 4.47 million in March, said the National Association of Realtors.
GBP
"These figures give the Monetary Policy Committee ...
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Guessing game begins over next Treasury chief
(Reuters) - Wanted for the Treasury Department: a new boss who can fix trillion-dollar-plus budget deficits, overhaul the tax system and spur a reluctant Europe into fixing its debt crisis.
It's a tall order, especially when the new Treasury chief also must deal with a fractious Congress - and all for a salary lower than that paid to many junior Wall Street bankers.
Economists, investors and veterans of past administrations are appraising potential successors to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, either in a new Obama administration, if President Barack Obama is re-elected, or under Mitt Romney.
Geithner has made it clear that he is leaving the post he has held since January 2009 even if Obama, a Democrat, beats Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, in the November ...
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Forex-Euro slides ahead of summit; yen tumbles
(Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in three days on Tuesday as investors doubted whether an informal meeting of European leaders this week would yield much progress in tackling the region's debt crisis.
The weakness in Europe's common currency suggested an uncertain outlook despite a fall in Spanish and Italian government bond yields, and some analysts said stretched positioning and oversold signals could lead to a short squeeze and a higher euro.
While there have been hopes that Wednesday's summit may lead to agreement on measures to boost euro zone growth, investors were not confident of a breakthrough given apparent differences in opinion between Germany and France.
French President Francois Hollande is expected to push for a joint euro zone bond, a ...
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JPY Underperforms Amid Downgrade, Ahead of BoJ
USD stronger today against most of the majors amid higher global equities and higher U.S. treasury yields. A ratings downgrade in Japan, dampened EU Summit expectations and low growth projections in Europe, and slowing inflation in the UK are benefitting the USD. The dollar index rebounded from the 81.00 figure but remains below the double top around the 81.75 level and the dollar is currently strongest against the JPY as UST yields advance. On the data front, the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected to soften to 11 from 14) and April existing home sales (forecast to increase 2.9% m/m to 4.61M) are set for release at the top of the hour.
EUR is weaker against most of the G10 currencies amid growth concerns and low expectations of the upcoming EU Summit. The OECD released update ...
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