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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
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Majors maintain the pullback against the greenback
Jobless claims came below market expectations at 367,000; 5,000 below consensus and 1,000 below last reading. Meanwhile, the trade deficit continued to widen printing $51.8 billion in March from $46.0 billion February.
Markets maintained the volatile stance, however with a slight upside bias today. The EUR/USD is pushing towards the key previous low and resistance level around 1.2975-1.3000 area, where the resistance is expected to show robustness in the near term, and further downside attempts towards the recent low at 1.2909 seem likely within the upcoming sessions, although a break above 1.3000 could extend the bullish correction towards 1.3075.
The GBP/USD rallied after the BOE decision, officials decided not to give the economy another dose of cash injection despite the ailing ...
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Jobless claims fall, trade gap widens
The number of Americans submitting new applications for jobless benefits edged down last week, easing concerns the labor market was deteriorating after April's weak employment growth.
While the claims data indicated the economy remained on a moderate growth path, a report from the Commerce Department showing a widening in the trade deficit in March suggested economic growth was much slower in the first quarter than initially believed.
New claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 365,000.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims inching up to 369,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a ...
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Fragile euro hovers near multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro stayed close to a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday and was expected to suffer further losses as political deadlock in Greece increased the risk of insolvency and a possible euro exit.
The common currency gained a short-term reprive as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments.
However, it was expected to continue the firm downward path established since Greece's inconclusive elections at the weekend. With another set of elections likely, doubts are growing that Greece will adhere to austerity measures needed to secure further emergency funding.
The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2956, but it stayed not far from $1.29115 hit on Wednesday, its lowest since late January. Analysts were skeptical ...
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Oil eases to around $113 on weak Chinese data
(Reuters) - Oil fell to around $113 per barrel on Thursday as weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data highlighted concerns over energy demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
Downbeat comments by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also weighed on the market. The group's monthly report said oil supply was plentiful and in excess of market requirements.
Brent crude oil futures for June lost 10 cents to $113.10 a barrel by 07.06 a.m. EDT after settling at $113.20 on Wednesday, up 47 cents. U.S. crude fell 40 cents to $96.41 per barrel.
Brent has fallen sharply from highs of around $126 per barrel in April due to worries about political turmoil in Europe and a growing conviction that the market is well supplied.
Analysts remained downbeat about prospects for ...
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Fragile euro teeters near multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro steadied near a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments, tempering the threat of a Greek insolvency and possible euro exit.
However Greece's future in the euro zone remains in question, with another round of elections foreseen and doubts about whether the country will adhere to austerity measures needed to secure further emergency funding.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to release 4.2 billion euros of a scheduled payment. However, impatient governments withheld part of the latest tranche of rescue funds to be paid on Thursday.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields fell ...
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European Market Update : 10/05/2012
Markets eye whether BOE extends its Asset Purchase Program later today; Greece continues to struggle to form new gov't
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.00%, as expected
(ID) Indonesia Central Bank left Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected
(FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -5.7% v -2.2%e
(FR) Bank of France Apr Business Sentiment: 95 v 95e
(FR) France Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.3%e
(FR) France Mar Manufacturing Production M/M:+1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.8%e
(FR) France Mar Central Govt. Balance: -€29.4B v -€24.2B prior
(ES) Spain Mar House transactions Y/Y: -22.7% v -31.8% prior
(CZ) Czech Apr CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e
(CZ) Czech Mar ...
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Fragile euro holds above multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro edged away from a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments, tempering the threat of a Greek insolvency and possible euro exit.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to a scheduled 5.2 billion euro ($6.72 billion) payment. However, impatient governments withheld part of the latest tranche of rescue funds to be paid to Greece on Thursday.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields fell after Spain's government effectively took over Bankia, one of the country's biggest banks, in a bid to restore confidence in Spain's ailing banking system.
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Oil eases further on weak Chinese data
(Reuters) - Oil fell to around $113 per barrel on Thursday, pressured by weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data highlighting concerns over energy demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
Brent crude has fallen sharply from highs around $126 per barrel in April due to worries about political turmoil in Europe and a growing conviction that the market is well-supplied.
And while a five-day negative run ended on Wednesday, analysts remained downbeat about prospects for oil.
Brent crude oil futures for June lost 20 cents to $113.00 a barrel by 0855 GMT, after settling at $113.20 on Wednesday, up 47 cents. U.S. crude slipped 35 cents to $96.46.
"Brent seems to be bottoming out since it has not hit the Monday low again," said Carsten Fritsch, oil analyst at Commerzbank. "The ...
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