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European Market Update : 03/05/2012
Markets focus to see whether the ECB paves the way for further easing
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 27th: $523.3B v $519.5B prior
(IN) India Apr Markit Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.3 prior
(UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.3%e
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.1 prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 0.95 v 0.80 prior
(HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: €691.2M v €690.1M prelim
(TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 7.9% prior
(TR) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.1 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.2% prior
(BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: 0.5% v 0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Services: 53.3 v 54.1e
(HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 17.3% v 14.0%e; Retail Sales ...
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Research Note: ECB Preview
On Thursday 3rd May at 1245 BST/ 0745 ET the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce interest rates. It is widely expected to remain on hold at a record low 1%, for the fifth consecutive month. Of more importance to the market will be ECB President Draghi's press conference at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET as we will likely find out the Bank's view on weakening economic growth and sovereign strains in Spain. Draghi may also shed more light on the 'growth compact' that he suggested at a speech to the European Parliament last week.
We don't believe the Bank will announce any new 'special' measures to try and ease the problems in the Eurozone periphery. President Draghi did not hint in his speech last week that the Bank would re-start its Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which purchases domestic ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The grim unemployment figures for March will likely encourage talk about a long overdue ‘growth pact’ for the euro zone"
- Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group
Euro area unemployment rose to the highest level since 1997 in March and manufacturing contracted in April, adding to signs the economy is still far from out of the woods.
USD
"Employment growth is slowing"
- David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector fell to 119,000 in April from a revised 201,000 in March, the ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
GBP
" points to clear, decent construction expansion in April"
- Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. construction sector expanded slower in April, compared ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 3rd, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair XAU/USD continues to move on the upper band of its bearish channel as support (purple lines).
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its long term bullish channel and is currently validating a return below 1650 points.
Indicators are mitigated.
We are neutral between 1640 and 1650 points.
We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position:
- Long above 1650 points. The breakout of 1660/1670/1680 will all give a new buy signal
- Short below 1640 points. The breakout of 1630/1620 will give a new sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 2nd, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 02/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German jobless rate unexpectedly climbed first time in last six months as debt turmoil curbed economic growth. The number of unemployed people increased by 19 000, reaching 2.87 million, compared to an expected drop by 10 000 people. The adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8%.
USD
Mitt Romney announced that Yuan's 23% appreciation versus U.S. Dollar in last five years is not enough and branded world's second largest economy as currency manipulator. Romney promised in his campaigns to put more pressure on China as he claimed Obama hasn't done enough to boost stronger Yuan. Economists questioned by Bloomberg expected Yuan to climb versus greenback to CHY 6.15 by the end of 2012.
GBP
FTSE 100 index traded lower on Wednesday as record high unemployment level and ...
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Euro Loses Ground on Recession Fears
Euro is losing ground today as recession fears once again come into focus. Disappointing economic data in the eurozone, as well as a growing gap between Germany and the peripherals, are weighing on the euro. Additionally, it’s not helping risk appetite that the data coming out of the United States has turned out to be disappointing as well.
In the eurozone, the news continues to worsen. The unemployment rate in the 17-nation currency region is up to 10.9%. However, it is a matter of concern to many that there is a growing gap between the employment rate in Germany (6.8%), and the unemployment rate in eurozone peripheral countries, like Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Indeed, in Spain, the unemployment rate is at 24.1%. This huge disparity only highlights the imbalances, and underscores ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 01/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We fear things are likely to get worse before they get better"
- Martin van Vliet, a senior euro-region economist at ING Bank
Spain sank into recession in the first quarter of 2012. The economy contracted 0.3 per cent, after shrinking by the same amount in the previous quarter, Madrid-based National Statistics Institute data showed on Monday.
USD
"What was encouraging was that the income numbers improved. Our expectation is that job growth does increase gradually"
- Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
U.S. consumer spending was boosted by higher than expected incomes, said the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Monday. Household purchases increased 0.3 per cent. Incomes gained 0.4 per cent, the most in three months.
GBP
"This is year three of a ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 01/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today's highlight;
- Interest Rate Decision. (AUD, 5:30, GMT)
- RBA Rate Statement. (AUD, 5:30, GMT)
- ISM Manufacturing Index. (USD, 15:00, GMT)
- Unemployment Rate. (NZD, 23:45, GMT)
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3233 having retraced Friday’s gains, at the close of the European session down 0.2%, but still trading above 1.32. European bond yields are generally stable and EUR volatility is trading near its lows at 8.4. News flow has generally been negative, with Spain entering a recession (GDP came in at ‐0.3% in Q1), S&P downgrading 11 banks and the March central bank data revealing a lack of foreign demand for Spanish debt.
As expected, S&P has downgraded 11 Spanish banks and put a further 6 on watch; while taking the opposite tact, Moody’s has announced that ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 30/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Unemployment in Spain approached a new record of 5.64 million in March while the jobless rate topped 24.4%, reported the national statistics office. Analysts expect the Spain's officials to confirm that the country is falling into recession. Meanwhile, retail sales in the country declined by 3.7% in March on an annual basis.
USD
US consumer spending surged in March, adding to the previous gains as incomes increased. Household purchases that account about 70% of the US economy surged by 0.3%, following a 0.9% increase in February. Experts projected consumer spending to rise by 0.4%. Meanwhile, incomes eased up 0.4%, indicating the largest increase in the last three months.
GBP
UK home value accelerated in April, the second straight month, Hometrack Ltd said on ...
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