Continues To Grip The Country

Brent crude oil slumped more than 2 percent on Thursday, touching the lowest price since December, as investors avoided risky assets due to mounting fears that turmoil in Greece could spread to other stressed euro zone economies. U.S. crude was down by less than Brent, which reduced Brent's premium against U.S. crude to below $15, from above $19 the previous session, as owners of the U.S. Seaway pipeline announced just after midday that its reversal was completed as expected. The initial flow of crude that will head for the main U.S. refining center in Houston was to occur by the weekend, a development aimed at easing the supply glut of U.S. crude at the delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Easing that glut should narrow the premium that Brent has enjoyed over U.S. crude. But market focus ...

Dutch Fears Trump French Elections If you looked at the headlines from the weekend you may have thought that risk was poised to rally today. The first round of the French Presidential election was a tighter race than expected. Socialist Hollande won 27.1% of the vote while Sarkozy was not that far behind with 26.7%. The French left, which has called for ECB rate cuts and a re-negotiation of the EU's Fiscal Pact, did less well than expected, which should have calmed markets this morning. However, weak economic data out of the currency bloc combined with fears about the Dutch triple A credit rating has caused risk aversion to grip the markets at the start of this week. Dutch budget wrangling hurts risk sentiment The Netherlands has overtaken France as the largest political risk this week ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "There is at least still sufficient demand for goods ‘made in Germany’ to keep the industrial engine running in 2012" - Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group German factory orders increased more than expected in December as demand from overseas helped the euro zone’s largest economy to weather the debt crisis. Orders rose 1.7 per cent, after declining 4.9 per cent in November, said the Economy Ministry on Monday. USD "You wonder when people are going to look beyond Greece to the real issue, which is Italy" - Jeffrey Sica, president and CIO of Sica Wealth Management U.S. stocks declined on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak, after the meeting of euro zone ministers was postponed because of Greek reluctance to commit to reforms. GBP "If the UK ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Mixed Economic Data Points to Moderate Growth Retail sales came in slightly higher than expected in June as higher sales at automobile dealers offset reduced spending at gasoline stations. With household budgets stretched thin, discretionary spending in most major categories remained weak. Inflation measures over the past week indicated that the pace of inflation is slowing; however, core inflation measures are still picking up. The trade deficit widened in May as crude oil imports jumped on both higher prices and volumes while exports were pulled down by weak industrial supplies demand. Mixed Economic Data Points to Moderate Growth It was a mixed week for economic data, with inflation concerns subsiding somewhat and the ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Coming to Grips With Core Issues Now that the era of stimulus is coming to an end, decision makers must come to grips with the economy that we have—not the one some commentators dream up. First, the housing sector continues to work through its issues, which means sustained subpar housing starts for several years in several metropolitan areas. Second, the pattern of fiscal deficits (top graph) remains higher than in earlier economic recoveries. Forty years of promises for entitlements now face the reality of limited revenue growth at the federal and state level. The time of smoke and mirrors has passed. Playing With the Hand You Are Dealt Economic growth is just not as fast as many had hoped or had forecasted—so let’s deal ...

(Reuters) - Industrialized countries would consider a coordinated release of oil from stocks to meet any supply disruption stemming from the political turmoil in the Middle East, the IEA's chief economist said on Tuesday. Rising oil prices are already in the danger zone that threatens global economic growth and fuel demand and could rise further if turmoil continues in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol said U.S. crude futures hit a 2- year high on Tuesday as violence in Libya led one oil company there to shut in 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of the country's 1.6 million bpd output. Investors fear further disruption both in Libya and beyond as protests grip the Middle East and North Africa. "If they think there is a need to do so, they may well decide to ...

(Reuters) - Brent crude rose more than $2 a barrel on Monday after a report that workers at an oilfield in OPEC-member Libya were on strike as violent unrest gripped the country. Concern of oil supply disruption has buoyed prices as protests spread across the oil-producing Middle East and North Africa. A strike had stopped output at Libya's Nafoora oilfield, Al Jazeera reported. Brent crude for April delivery rose $1.73 to $104.25 a barrel by 0803 GMT, after surging to as much $104.60, a 2-1/2 year high. On Friday, Brent settled at $102.52, its fourth-straight weekly rise. U.S. crude for March delivery rose $1.40 to $87.60 a barrel. Libya exports around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), and on Sunday a tribal leader in the country threatened to cut the flow within 24 hours if a ...

(Reuters) - Investments tied to Egypt rebounded in less volatile trading on Friday as a tumultuous week ended without a resolution to the civil unrest gripping the country. Egypt's stock market, which has been closed since January 27, is expected to reopen Monday and could have an impact on the prices of exchange-traded funds tied to the country. Some managers expect substantial gyrations in shares. The Van Eck Market Vectors Egypt Index exchange-traded fund (EGPT.P) rose 0.4 percent. The fund is one of the few instruments available to trade the Egyptian market. The market is down 12 percent over the past three weeks. Van Eck on Monday suspended new share creation in the fund, with the Egyptian market remaining closed. ETFs create new shares in response to demand through additional ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review A Little News to Be Thankful For * Retail sales posted a huge 1.2 percent increase in October, fueled in large part by a suspicious 5.0 percent jump in motor vehicle sales. * Inflation data remain mixed, with rising energy and industrial commodity prices pushing the headline numbers higher but weak domestic demand containing most measures of core inflation. * Housing remains stuck in slow-growth mode, with starts plunging 11.7 percent in October and weekly mortgage applications for home purchases declining 5.0 percent. Who's the Turkey? As Thanksgiving approaches we are faced with a dilemma as to who will be the turkey this year? Will it be Ben Bernanke, who has remained steadfast in his plans for implementing a second ...