Concerned About The Increased Likelihood

China markets look for new easing measures; Signals continue that Japan will implement additional easing measures Economic Data (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 EXPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -7.0% V -3.0%E; IMPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -1.2% V -0.1%E (first decline in 5 quarters) North America Semi Equipment Industry Mar Sales book to bill ratio: 1.13 v 1.01 prior (2nd consecutive month above parity) (JP) JAPAN FEB TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 0.0% V 0.7%E (KR) South Korea Feb Conference Board Leading Economic Index: +2.8% v +0.3% prior (JP) Bank of Japan loan officers' survey: Corporate loan demand in Jan-Mar rose to +6 from -2 in prior quarter Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT) Nikkei225 -0.4% S&P/ASX -0.1% Kospi -1.2% Taiwan Taiex -1.1% Singapore Straits Times -0.2% Shanghai Composite +0.6% Hang Seng -0.2% S& ...

Brent crude extended gains above $113 on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy created jobs at the fastest pace in nine months in January, spurring hopes this could stimulate demand at the world's top consumer. A warning by Iran's supreme leader of retaliation over an oil embargo "at the right time" also supported oil prices. By 1440 GMT, front-month Brent crude was up $1.63 at $113.70 a barrel, gaining for a fourth consecutive day. U.S. crude rose by 64 cents to $97.00 a barrel, reversing five straight sessions of losses. U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped by 243,000 versus expectations for a gain of only 150,000 in January. U.S. unemployment rate also dropped to a near three-year low of 8.3 percent, indicating last quarter's growth carried into early 2012. "The jobs number came much ...

Brent crude rose above $112 on Friday as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the Iran would retaliate over an oil embargo "at the right time". Khamenei said Tehran would not yield to international pressure to abandon its nuclear program. "Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course ... In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we have our own threats to impose at the right time," Khamenei told worshippers in a speech broadcast live on state television. By 4:46 a.m. ET, front-month Brent crude was 33 cents up at $112.40 a barrel, gaining for a fourth consecutive day. U.S. crude rose by 50 cents to $96.86 a barrel, reversing five straight sessions of losses. "This newsflow should continue to build a Brent premium, and could ...

Brent crude held above $112 on Friday as reports that Israel could strike Iran in the spring heightened already simmering tensions in the region. The market was held back by caution ahead of key U.S. jobs data, which with dragging talks on Greek debt saw Asian shares and the euro weaken. Front-month Brent crude rose 26 cents to $112.33 a barrel by 2:19 a.m. ET, gaining for a fourth consecutive day. U.S. crude increased 6 cents to $96.42 a barrel, reversing five straight sessions of losses. "The oil market is getting driven on a headline by headline basis coming out of the Middle East," Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress, said in a report. "Otherwise across financial markets the focus is on today's employment numbers. Everybody is waiting to see if data out of the United ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR "Germany's manufacturing and export-driven economy finished the year strongly - piling on another 22,000 jobs in December" - Anthony Cheung, market analyst at RANsquaw Unemployment in Europe’s largest economy decreased by 22 thousand people in December to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.8 per cent, the lowest since 1991, said the Federal Statistical Office of Germany on Tuesday. USD "It’s good to know that purchasing managers are feeling a bit better about the economic backdrop" - Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated in December, bolstered by growth in orders and production. GBP "Some sectors within manufacturing are still growing relatively strongly" - Lee Hopley, chief economist of ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Germany's manufacturing and export-driven economy finished the year strongly - piling on another 22,000 jobs in December" - Anthony Cheung, market analyst at RANsquaw Unemployment in Europe’s largest economy decreased by 22 thousand people in December to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.8 per cent, the lowest since 1991, said the Federal Statistical Office of Germany on Tuesday. USD "It’s good to know that purchasing managers are feeling a bit better about the economic backdrop" - Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated in December, bolstered by growth in orders and production. GBP "Some sectors within manufacturing are still growing relatively strongly" - Lee Hopley, chief economist of EEF U.K. ...

The Week Ahead Highlights Crunch time in US debt negotiations QE3 - not so fast Europe's stress test results with a caveat CHF and JPY strength prompts jaw-boning Divergent economic performance in Oceania Key data and events to watch next week Crunch time in US debt negotiations US congressional leaders and the White House appear far from reaching any sort of comprehensive ‘grand bargain' to cut the US deficit and raise the government's debt ceiling. Talks are ongoing, but the rhetoric on both sides seems to be deteriorating, suggesting that compromise may be falling out of reach. Time is tight and a deal needs to be reached by the end of next week to allow for legislative passage before the drop dead date of Aug. 2. At this point, we see three main potential ...

(Reuters) - Stocks rose on Friday as optimism about upcoming company earnings encouraged foreign buyers back into Asian markets, and the dollar retreated as investors sold the low yielding currency in favor of riskier assets. The euro steadied despite a political crisis in Portugal that prompted a downgrade from ratings agency S&P and added to concerns over Europe's sovereign debt crisis. "The market is treating many of these downgrades as rearguard actions which are already well discounted and the dollar is under pressure broadly," said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citi in Singapore. "This will continue to support the euro even if we do see some marginal negative news on the sovereign debt crisis." Financial bookmakers forecast major European share markets to open up 0.7-0.8 ...

As Chris told you in Friday’s essay “G-7 Coordinates Intervention to Push the Yen Lower”, the big story was the G7 stepping into the currency market and selling yen on a coordinated basis. As you would expect, it was the worst performing currency of the day by ending up with a loss of about 2.25%. The yen (JPY) fell all the way to 81.99 on Friday morning, but barely climbed back into the 80 handle by the time I left for the weekend on Friday afternoon. All of the excitement in the currency market really took place in the Asian and European trading sessions, so it was actually a fairly quiet day for US traders. In fact, most currencies ended the day higher in US trading, including the yen. I saw a report from UBS that basically told investors they should forget about yen strength, which ...