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Guessing game begins over next Treasury chief
(Reuters) - Wanted for the Treasury Department: a new boss who can fix trillion-dollar-plus budget deficits, overhaul the tax system and spur a reluctant Europe into fixing its debt crisis.
It's a tall order, especially when the new Treasury chief also must deal with a fractious Congress - and all for a salary lower than that paid to many junior Wall Street bankers.
Economists, investors and veterans of past administrations are appraising potential successors to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, either in a new Obama administration, if President Barack Obama is re-elected, or under Mitt Romney.
Geithner has made it clear that he is leaving the post he has held since January 2009 even if Obama, a Democrat, beats Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, in the November ...
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Federal Reserve officials at odds on jobs view
(Reuters) - The economy will likely grow at a moderate pace, inflation will stay low, and unemployment will fall, three top U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Thursday said in remarks prepared for delivery to an economic outlook summit.
But their conflicting views on the workings of the labor market suggested they will continue to spar on policy, as the U.S. central bank decides the path of interest rates that have been held near zero for more than three years.
Two of the Fed's more dovish policymakers - San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart - blamed high employment on sluggish demand and far-from-blistering economic growth. If joblessness stems from low growth, the reasoning goes, continued easy monetary policy can help boost employment.
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Buy a House!
A little more than a year ago, a very successful professional investor declared, “If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Since that declaration, house prices have continued drifting lower in most parts of the country. The Case-Shiller index of national home prices is down about 4% year over year. Even so, we’re betting this professional investor was merely early…not wrong. US housing isn’t just cheap; it is the cheapest it has been in more than 40 years. And when one considers the possibility that inflation may rear its head soon, housing looks even cheaper still.
If you think we’re crazy, you’re not alone. The housing market is a complete bust right now. The following ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 04/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
The primary reading of the Euro Zone's composite PMI indicated further contraction of the economic activity in the region. However, the final estimate of the PMI was above the preliminary reading of 48.7. The final PMI in the Euro Zone attained 49.6 in Q1, signaling on the mild contraction as compared to the preceding quarter reading of 47.2.
USD
The greenback advanced against 17-nation currency on Tuesday as Federal Reserve cooled speculations for extra monetary stimulus. The US Dollar added 0.3% versus Euro to USD 1.3199 and slipped 0.2% versus Yen to JPY 82.64. Currently EUR/USD is trading at USD 1.3205 and USD/JPY is trading at JPY 82.68.
GBP
The gauge measuring British construction activity through a number of new orders unexpectedly surged in March, ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 29/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Thousands of people in Spain are going participate in the general strike against the new reform. The reform stipulates reduction of the maximum severance payment to 33 days' remuneration from 45 days currently provided. The measure is aimed at combating with unemployment and saving billions of Euros for the country. However, labour unions claim the legislation will ease firing for the companies.
USD
US unemployment claims increased sharply last week to 359K despite positive sentiment on the market and analyst consensus forecast of 351K. The latest reading indicates a sharp increase of this indicator, as the previous week's reading stood at 348K.
GBP
The average house price in the UK declined by 1% this month while taken annualized rate home prices ...
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Insight: Wall Street, Fed face off over physical commodities
Wall Street's biggest banks are locked in an increasingly frantic struggle with the Federal Reserve over the right to retain the jewels of their commodity trading empires: warehouses, storage tanks and other hard assets worth billions of dollars.
While the battle over proprietary trading and new derivatives regulations has taken place largely in public view since the 2008 financial crisis, the fight by JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to retain or expand their prized physical commodity operations - most acquired in only the past six years - has remained hidden.
The debate is nearing an inflection point: Within 18 months, the Fed will likely either allow banks more freedom to invest in the physical commodity world than ever; or force them to sell off the assets that many ...
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Banks tally up Greek debt insurance payouts
A restructuring of Greece's colossal debt is widely expected to trigger insurance payouts and investment banks and hedge funds are working out who will be the winners and losers.
If the restructuring goes ahead as planned under the terms of Greece's second international bailout, it could involve Athens forcing some bondholders to accept a much lower value.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - financial instruments purchased to insure buyers against default - could offer some solace to those banks, fund managers and institutional investors that would see the value of their bonds dramatically cut.
While there is a growing expectation that the CDS will be triggered, question marks over the pay-out process could mean costly surprises for those who must pay up and for those who might be disappointed ...
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Analysis: Smaller caps seen doing better this earnings season
(Reuters) - Perhaps familiarity does breed contempt. The biggest U.S. companies have often failed to meet forecasts this earnings season, while their smaller counterparts have delivered.
"Big-cap" companies have been hit with a number of high-profile earnings disappointments, including most recently, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ.N) and Dell (DELL.O). The percent of companies exceeding expectations is the lowest since the end of 2008 and profit margins are deteriorating.
"Small-caps", meanwhile, are beating estimates at a rate comparable to recent quarters, and profit margins are on the rise. It's a sign that U.S. economic recovery continues to gain momentum as domestic rather than export growth helps the smaller names. Companies in the technology and industrial sectors have a bigger ...
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CME Group ups stake in Dubai commodities bourse
Dubai, Feb 21 - CME Group Inc (CME.O), the biggest U.S. futures exchange operator, doubled its stake in Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) betting on the bourse's prospects for establishing a new crude oil futures benchmark for the Middle East and Asia.
The CME and Oman Investment Fund, the Gulf state's sovereign wealth fund, both injected an undisclosed amount into a recapitalization of the DME, which trades the Oman oil futures contract.
CME's stake in DME will rise to 50 percent from 25 percent, while Oman Investment Fund's holding goes to 29 percent from 25 percent, the companies said on Tuesday.
The DME is pushing the Oman contract as a benchmark for markets east of Egypt's Suez canal, arguing that much of the world's crude comes from the region and should be priced in the Middle East. ...
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