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Comments On Intervention In The CurrencyTitle:
Asian Market Update : 23/05/2012
Yen gains after BOJ stands pat; World Bank cuts China outlook, April lending looks weak; EUR falls on Papademos "grexit" mention
Economic Data
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0% TO 0.10% (AS EXPECTED); Keeps economic assessment unchanged; Maintains asset purchase fund at ¥70T
(JP) JAPAN APR MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE TOTAL: -¥520B V -¥471BE; ADJUSTED: -¥480B V -¥617BE
(US) NORTH AMERICA SEMI EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY APR SALES BOOK TO BILL RATIO: 1.10 V 1.13 PRIOR (3RD CONSECUTIVE MONTH ABOVE PARITY, 1st decline in 7 months)
(AU) AUSTRALIA APR DEWR INTERNET SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: -0.8% V -0.5% PRIOR (4-month low)
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.4% V 0.0% PRIOR
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX M/M: +0.2% V 0.0% PRIOR
(SG) ...
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Euro falls vs. dollar as EU summit hopes dim
(Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar on Tuesday after two days of gains as investors pared back expectations that an informal meeting of European leaders would yield much progress in tackling the region's debt crisis.
However, given the market's stretched bearish positioning and oversold signals on the technical charts, the euro could see a short-term squeeze higher ahead of the European summit.
While there have been hopes in some quarters that Wednesday's summit may lead to agreement on measures to boost growth, investors were not confident of a breakthrough given apparent differences in opinion between Germany and France.
French President Francois Hollande is expected to push for a joint euro zone bond, a measure backed by Italy, Spain and the European Commission.
However ...
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European Market Update : 22/05/2012
Fitch cuts Japan's sovereign rating two notches
Economic Data
(JP) Japan Apr Supermarket Sales Y/Y: --1.9% v -2.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.4% v 8.4%e
(DK) Denmark May Consumer Confidence Indicator: 0.4 v 0.6 prior
(ZA) South Africa Mar Leading Indicator: 134.5 v 134.4 prior
(NL) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence: -38 v -32 prior
(NO) Norway Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 0.9%e; GDP Mainland Norway Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.9%e
(UK) Mar ONS UK House Prices Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.0% prior
(UK) Apr Public Finances (PSNCR): -£23.2B v -£6.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -£18.8B v -£22.8Be; PSNB ex Interventions: -£16.5B v -£20.0Be
(UK) Apr CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e
(UK) Apr RPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e; Core RPI- Ex Mortgages Y/Y: 3.5% ...
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Euro bounces off 4-month low, but remains under pressure
(Reuters) - The euro extended its rebound from last week's four-month low on Monday but investors remained concerned over financial turmoil in Greece and Spain, drawing little comfort from a broad G8 pledge to take steps to fight the euro zone's debt crisis.
The common currency rose on short-covering after speculators piled up a record amount of bets against it, according to data from a U.S. financial watchdog released late last week.
"We are entering a consolidation phase with regard to the euro. It will not be known for a while whether Greece will stay in the euro or not with a Greek election a few weeks away," said Minori Uchida, chief analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
"The market may show some minor reaction to Greek opinion polls... but it is hard to sell the euro in ...
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The Bank of England's Next Move
The Week Ahead
■The Bank of England's next move
■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone?
■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing
■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric
The Bank of England's next move
The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report.
The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...
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Again rating fears
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Risk appetite suffered overnight after the Wall Street Journal reminded investors that Moody’s has the ratings of 114 European banks on review for a possible downgrade. We note that this review was announced in mid-February and that the article contained little new information. Elsewhere, China‘s weekend decision to widen the USDCNY trading band from ?0.5% to ?1%, effective today, had very little effect on G10 currencies.
Rather, the key message is that greater CNY volatility will be tolerated – one of the many anticipated steps towards the PBoC’s long-term goal of full regime liberalisation. The move could benefit G10 commodity bloc currencies at the margin to the extent it signals confidence in China‘s economy, but China‘s broader macro ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 29/03/2012
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"With concerns about global growth now weighing on sentiment, the single currency seems to behave like a proper funding currency should do—it rallies against risk-correlated currencies. We suspect that this should remain the case in the near term"
- Citigroup (based on Reuters)
The pair is attempting to advance further and it is likely to test the 7-month high at 1.3457.
EUR/JPY
"Over the short term, there appears to be little to jolt markets out of their stupor and if anything, is likely to continue to drift higher according to our short-term quantitative models"
- Credit Agricole (based on MarketWatch)
A fierce resistance lies ahead of EUR/JPY at 111.57 (intervention high). If EUR/USD fails to advance higher, it will commence a slide back towards ...
Title:
Waiting for Bernanke
Forex News and Events:
In remarks prepared for a congressional hearing today, Fed Chairman Bernanke offered little new information of policy direction. He reiterated that the Fed's current path was correct and cautioned about reversing policies that the Fed believes are supporting the US economy. While these comments were nothing revealing, they do suggest that likelihood of QE3 has lessened (already priced in USD and yields) but further repeals of current strategy is dubious. It indicates that perhaps the market has gotten slightly ahead of itself in pulling in rate expectations. Hence today’s USD selling and US yields softening (capping USDJPY). Bernanke also mentioned the European crisis saying that certain critical developments had minimized the risk. He singled out bailout support ...
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SNB Reiterates Commitment to EURCHF "Floor"
Forex News and Events:
There weren't any real developments which supported risk accumulation however, markets were well bid all day. Global stock markets had rose particularly on the back of the US bank stress test which gave the US banking sector a boost, but the optimism spilt over other sectors rather than across the ocean. US treasuries continued their upward trajectory giving broad support to the USD. But the big story in FX remains the JPY. USDJPY climbed to 83.32 from 82.87 post meeting. The JPY was not helped by comments from Yasushi Kinoshita that ‘Japans fiscal situation is worse than Greece" which still linger in our minds. With both the BoJ and Fed delivering their expectations for policy path, it seems that interest rate divergence will support USD. The accompanying ...
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