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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 23/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Housing Indicators Pulled Back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week, the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. While housing indicators painted somewhat of a mixed picture, with nearly all housing market indicators unexpectedly declining on the month, we continue to see real improvement. That said, much of the pullback was due to the mild winter, which likely exacerbated the seasonal adjustment process.
Housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent to a 698,000-unit pace in February. January starts, however, were upwardly revised to a 706,000-unit pace, the highest level since October 2008.
Housing Indicators Pulled back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 16/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
“March Happiness” Tempered by Late Week Reports
As March Mayhem arrives in the sports world, investors found much to be happy about with many of this week's economic releases. Retail sales improved for the second straight month thanks to a stronger labor market, rising consumer confidence and unseasonably warm weather across much of the country. Regional manufacturing indices also improved, while import and producer price growth slowed. However, Friday's reports tempered the enthusiasm as industrial production was unchanged, rising gas prices led to the biggest increase in consumer prices in 10 months, and consumer sentiment slipped.
Signs of a Consumer Rebound
Following a weak end to 2011, retail sales have bounced back, rising 0.6 ...
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EU raids power bourses on antitrust concerns
(Reuters) - European Commission officials raided the offices of two electricity exchanges on Tuesday following concerns their planned tie up may infringe European competition laws, the companies said.
Paris-based EPEX Spot and Norway's Nordpool Spot, which offer short-term electricity trading platforms for French, German, Austrian, Swiss and Scandinavian power, in September announced plans to create a joint exchange which would cover more than half of Europe's spot electricity trades.
"Yes, our office was searched today. We expect the raids were carried out in relation to our cooperation with Nordpool Spot," a spokesman for EPEX Spot said.
The European Commission said it was concerned the companies may have violated European antitrust rules that prohibit cartels, without giving further ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 17/12/2011
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 17/12/2011
U.S. Review
Mixed Bag of Chips, but Reports Still Suggest Recovery
Retail sales posted a disappointing increase of 0.2 percent in November, but categories typically associated with the holiday season saw solid gains. We believe the holiday sales projections will remain on track.
Industrial production delivered an unexpected decline in November with the pullback concentrated in the manufacturing sector. However, regional surveys for December suggest further positive momentum.
Regarding inflation, we continue to expect prices to moderate over the next year due to restrained domestic demand and slowing global growth.
Economic Recovery Is Still on Pace
The busy week of economic releases continued to show an economy improving ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/11/2011
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/11/2011
U.S. Review
Slow But Steady Progress
Nonfarm employment rose by 80,000 jobs in October and data for the previous two months were revised up. The unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent.
October's ISM surveys remained consistent with modest economic growth. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys ticked down marginally in October, but remain slightly above the key 50.0 break-even level.
Motor vehicle sales turned in another solid performance in October, running at a 13.2 million unit annual rate. Sales of luxury vehicles were particularly strong.
Another Small Step in the Right Direction
Much has been written about the problems economies face in recovering in the aftermath of financial crisis. Research by the ...
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Commodity traders: The trillion dollar club
NEW YORK (Reuters)- For the small club of companies who trade the food, fuels and metals that keep the world running, the last decade has been sensational. Driven by the rise of Brazil, China, India and other fast-growing economies, the global commodities boom has turbocharged profits at the world's biggest trading houses.
They form an exclusive group, whose loosely regulated members are often based in such tax havens as Switzerland. Together, they are worth over a trillion dollars in annual revenue and control more than half the world's freely traded commodities. The top five piled up $629 billion in revenues last year, just below the global top five financial companies and more than the combined sales of leading players in tech or telecoms. Many amass speculative positions worth ...
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The Greatest Trade of All Time
On its way to becoming the world’s greatest superpower, the United States pulled off some truly remarkable trades.
Two notable transactions come to mind and were both outstanding bargains.
The Louisiana Purchase (purchased from the French)
Alaska (purchased from the Russians)
For a mere $15 million, America instantly doubled its size with the 1803 purchase of the Louisiana territory. Sixty-four years later, oil- and mineral-rich Alaska was obtained for a paltry $7.2 million. Even adjusting for inflation, the combined value of these deals in today’s dollars would be very small.
However, these two transactions pale in comparison to the greatest trade of all time, one which remains ongoing. This particular trade has allowed the US to exchange more than $8 trillion worth of paper ...
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Counting the Minutes
Economic Data Analysis
Counting the Minutes
Sterling markets have been whipsawed over the past week by rising speculation of a near-term rise in UK interest rates. Although there was some relief that annual CPI inflation rose to 'just' 4% in January, that relief was quickly dispelled by comments from the BoE Governor in his open letter to the Chancellor. Traders seized on those comments as an implicit acknowledgement that the MPC was getting ready to raise interest rates. Although the Governor appeared to go out of his way to play down this interpretation when he presented last week's Inflation Report, the profile of the Bank's revised inflation forecast suggests the risks of a near-term rate rise have clearly shifted. The strong, albeit weather-distorted, bounce in January retail sales ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: 24/12/2010
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
"Tis the Season to be Jolly…"
* This week's busy schedule of economic reports brought mostly good news. Revisions to third quarter GDP were slightly stronger than originally reported with real GDP growing at a 2.6 percent annualized pace. Recently released data on consumer spending along with trade suggests the economy likely expanded at around a 3.5 to 4.0 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter.
* Sales of both new and existing homes have improved in recent months, but growing from historically depressed levels. The rise in housing demand is not likely the start of a genuine housing recovery, however.
Fourth Quarter Real GDP Outlook - "Fa La La La La…"
This week's busy schedule of economic reports brought mostly good ...
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