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EUR/USD Continues to Tumble
The euro continued to tumble vs. its main currency rivals yesterday, as traders remained cautious about investing in riskier assets due to political uncertainty in the euro-zone. The EUR/USD fell to a fresh three-month low during the afternoon session at 1.2929. Turning to today, traders should be prepared for market volatility, as significant indicators from the UK and US are scheduled to be released. Attention should be given to the UK MPC Rate Statement, followed by the US Trade Balance figure and a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Should any of the news lead to additional pessimism in the global economic recovery, riskier currencies like the euro may fall further.
Economic News
USD - Safe Haven Dollar Extends Gains amid Euro-Zone Worries
A lack of news events yesterday helped the ...
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Euro Extends Its Trip South As Speculation On Greek Exit Is Growing
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Core bonds higher at first, but gave back gains in US session
- Fears about Greece and Spain continued to boost core bonds, but a rumours, later confirmed, that the EFSF would today disburse a tranche of the Greek bail-out loan triggered some correction and erased part of the German bond gains and almost all of the US ones. Today, the BoE decision on QE may affect overall bond markets.
- Currencies: euro extends its trip South as speculation on Greek exit is growing
- On Wednesday, trading on global markets was still dominated by negative headlines on Europe. This weighed on the euro. After all, the decline of EUR/USD developed in an orderly way even as several EMU policymakers pondered the option of a Greek exit. Today, the BoE holds ...
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Brent rises on Greece bailout payment, technicals
Brent crude futures climbed back into positive territory in late trading on Wednesday, snapping five days of losses after approval of a bailout payment to Greece eased worries about euro zone debt.
Oversold conditions in recent days after an extended drop in prices sent crude futures down as much as 8.6 percent since May 2 also attracted bargain hunters, analysts said.
Trading was choppy all day with oil finding balancing news of a North Sea oilfield shutdown, a U.S. refinery snag and a drop in U.S. refined product inventories against concerns about a potential Greek debt deal.
The stock market pared losses and Brent crude turned positive after euro zone governments agreed to authorize a payment of 5.2 billion euros from the region's bailout fund, despite opposition from some member ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 07/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The U.S. labor-market report will further erode investor confidence"
- Markus Allenspach, head of bond research at Julius Baer Group Ltd.
European stocks extended weekly losses, after a report showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in April. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased 1.76 per cent to 253.00. Germany’s DAX Index tumbled 1.99 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index contracted 1.90 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index lost 1.93 per cent to 5,655.06.
USD
"We’re still very much on the recovery path, but we’ve got a huge amount of ground to make up in the labor market"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector in April, tumbled to 115,000 from 154,000 the ...
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Markets to digest election weekend; Risk aversion picks up
Forex Morning Briefing : Markets to digest election weekend; Risk aversion picks up
What’s new:
Asia: Risk on the retreat following the French election result. AUD, NZD falling, JPY rising.
Europe: EUR/USD falls to 3-months low after Hollande won the election, triggering concerns for the future of the Euro zone.
United States: Falling unemployment rate despite a drop in Nonfarm payrolls and risk aversion has kept the US dollar bid.
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2955 1.3033 -0.56 %
USD/CHF 0.9215 0.9272 -0.54 %
GBP/USD 1.6115 1.6155 -0.04 %
USD/JPY 79.65 79.98 0.01 %
EUR/CHF 1.2009 1.20148 0.01 %
EUR/JPY 103.24 104.05 0.59 %
Dow Jones 13022.34 13205 -1.27 %
Nasdaq ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 07/05/2012
Fundamental News
The new Euro-zone politics will dominate markets throughout this week, as anti-austerity political parties take hold in Europe. The confirmation of Hollande’s victory in France marks the end of the Merkel-Sarkozy dominance at the political heart of Europe. Investors are acutely aware of the new leader's distain for austerity measures and some elements of the EU's new fiscal treaty. Mr Hollande has vowed not to ratify the new EU treaty unless new growth promoting measures are added, which is going to significantly draw-out the process of fiscal integration, if not stop it altogether. While in Athens, both mainstream political parties saw a dramatic collapse in support with anti-austerity groups seizing the opportunity to bolster their support. The head of the Syriza party, ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64.
USD
Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%.
GBP
Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 ...
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NFP Fever Heats Up
The markets have managed to shrug off some fairly dismal services sector PMI data from the Eurozone, as the US non-farm payrolls data comes into focus. Arguably the most important economic data release of the month, the markets expect 160k but our prop model suggests a slightly weaker reading of 136k. Labour market data in April was fairly mixed but the overall bias was to the downside with the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims rising more than20k over the month.
Payrolls reports have the power to set the tone for how markets, and the dollar in particular, trade for the rest of the month. The weaker March NFP report stopped the rally in USDJPY in its tracks, for example. So what can we expect from today's report? Essentially the magic number is 200k – this is the amount of ...
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