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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
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Dollar bounces back on U.S. manufacturing surprise
(Reuters) - The dollar bounced back on Wednesday from 2-1/2-month lows against the Japanese yen after upbeat U.S. manufacturing data soothed fears the economy was slowing, though gains were minimal ahead of the next set of figures including payrolls.
The Institute of Supply Management report showed the strongest rate of U.S. factory growth in 10 months, a surprise after a string of disappointing data and countering speculation the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of bond buying to bolster the economy.
"After the surprisingly strong ISM number, the next job data will be more important than usual. If it is strong, it could cement expectation of strong recovery at least in the United States," said Mitsuru Saito, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.
The payroll data is due ...
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Aussie felled by RBA cut, U.S. dollar heavy
(Reuters) - The Australian dollar fell sharply on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed rates by a deeper-than-expected 50 basis points while soft data nudged the U.S. dollar to a fresh two-month low versus the yen.
A sharp fall in business activity in the U.S. Midwest combined with data on Monday showing Spain was in recession dented investor appetite for risk and supported the safe-haven yen, which also rose against the broadly weaker Aussie dollar.
Markets had been expecting a 25 basis point rate cut from the Australian central bank (RBA) and the surprise drove the Australian dollar down more than 1 percent to $1.0312 and to a three-month low near 82 yen.
The Aussie traded near a five-month low against sterling, which rose above A$1.5700 despite a weaker than expected ...
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Euro slammed by poor data, European political risks
The euro slid against the dollar on Monday after two days of gains, rattled by poor euro zone data and concerns that the region's debt crisis could spread to other healthier European nations after Dutch officials failed to agree on budget cuts.
Analysts said sentiment toward the common currency was bearish, with most investors looking to sell it on any rally before debt auctions this week in Italy and the Netherlands.
After the breakdown in budget negotiations, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he tendered his cabinet's resignation to the Dutch queen, adding that she will consider it and had asked for the government in the meantime to keep doing whatever was in the country's interest.
The budget impasse in the Netherlands could threaten its triple-A rating and weighed on the euro.
A ...
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Euro Hits 1-Week High vs. USD
The euro rose to a one-week high against the US dollar during yesterday's trading session, as positive international fundamental data led to an increase in risk taking. Analysts are warning that overall market sentiment is still bearish toward the euro, and any gains made by the currency may be short lived. Today, traders will want to pay attention to data out of the US, including the Core CPI and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures. With both indicators forecasted to come in above last month's, the greenback could see gains to close out the week.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Continues to Fall vs. Riskier Currencies
The US dollar extended its recent bearish trend during yesterday's trading session, as positive data out of Australia and China led to an increase in risk taking. The EUR/ ...
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Euro, Aussie fall after China growth data disappoints
(Reuters) - The euro and the Australian dollar eased on Friday after Chinese growth data disappointed traders already positioning for a strong showing, but other Chinese data came mostly in line with expectations, limiting the downside.
The currency markets showed no immediate reaction to news that North Korea's much hyped long-range rocket apparently crashed into the sea a few minutes after launch on Friday.
China's annual economic growth slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter, falling short of economists' forecast of 8.3 percent and well below an improbably high 9 percent expectation that swirled in markets and boosted risk assets on Thursday.
This saw the euro slip to $1.3176 from a one-week high of $1.3213 on Thursday, keeping the ...
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EUR Stages Slight Recovery, US Data Set for Today
The euro saw mild upward movement during yesterday's trading session, as gains in stocks drove investors toward riskier assets. That being said, analysts are warning that debt worries in Spain and Portugal still have the potential to negatively impact the common currency in the coming days. Today, a batch of US fundamental data is forecasted to generate market volatility. Traders will want to pay attention to this week's Unemployment Claims as well as the Trade Balance and PPI figures, all scheduled for 12:30 GMT. Positive news may help the USD recoup some of its recent losses.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Extends Losses vs. Riskier Currencies
The US dollar extended losses against its riskier currency rivals during yesterday's session, including the euro and British pound. The EUR/USD was ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 23/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Housing Indicators Pulled Back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week, the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. While housing indicators painted somewhat of a mixed picture, with nearly all housing market indicators unexpectedly declining on the month, we continue to see real improvement. That said, much of the pullback was due to the mild winter, which likely exacerbated the seasonal adjustment process.
Housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent to a 698,000-unit pace in February. January starts, however, were upwardly revised to a 706,000-unit pace, the highest level since October 2008.
Housing Indicators Pulled back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. ...
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Euro and pound drop after downbeat reports
The euro and the pound slipped against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen after the release of worse than expected euro-area manufacturing and services figures in addition to U.K. retail sales report.
Euro area manufacturing contracted again in March, according to PMI indicator, as the advanced reading came in at 47.7 from 49.0 in February, lower than estimates of 49.5. Services sector also saw a contraction of 48.7 compared with 48.8 last month and median estimates of 49.2. Accordingly, PMI composite index showed a contraction of 48.7 from a prior of 49.3, below projections of 49.6.
Other data from the euro area released today showed that industrial new orders dropped 3.3% in January compared with a revised of -0.4%.
Although debt woes eased after the approval of Greece’s second ...
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