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Channel Until The StrongTitle:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013"
- Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG
Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday.
USD
"Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens"
- Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital
The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55.
GBP
Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...
Title:
USD is Preferred Haven
USD is Preferred Haven
USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures.
EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...
Title:
All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/08/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
Wall Street opened the trading week on mixed territory as Dow closed negative NASDAQ and S&P closed positive. On the beginning of the day it looked like the indices were about to continue the bearish momentum from Friday after sharp declines in Europe and Asia. Eventually, the indices managed to rise and close around Friday's closing levels. The S&P 500 opened the trading session around 1360 points, which is the lower boundary of the channel it is moving through and as we mentioned yesterday, the index might continue stamping between 1360 points and 1400 points for a while.
AUD/USD
The crash of the US futures and the European & Asian markets during yesterday morning caused large gaps in most of the currencies pairs, as the USD strengthened due to these declines. Later, ...
Title:
Greek Election Result Worry Traders
Forex News and Events:
A wave of anti-austerity election results has shifted the market’s attention away from the weak US payroll reports and has sent traders in search of safe-havens. France Socialist leader, Francois Hollande defeated President Sarkozy. Frances's new socialist President Hollande has expressed his distaste for the EU fiscal treaty and vowed to hold back France's vote until additional growth measures are included. However, we suspect Hollande will be more realistic with his insistence on changes in the fiscal pact by balancing demands with practical expectations of the bond market. Moving forward, we don’t expect the new president to damage their cost of capital and are already hear advisors tone down Hollande rhetoric. On the other hand the situation in Greece is ...
Title:
Market Drivers - Currencies : 07/05/2012
Today's Comment
From the point of view of the financial markets, the elections in France and Greece on Sunday had the worst possible outcomes. In France, the winner was Hollande who in his political presentations emphasised that he will ensure new negotiations of the fiscal compact adopted recently by the EU. All other things being equal, this will result in instability in the financial markets and hence lead to a demand for safe-haven currencies and selling of EUR.
In Greece, the preliminary result indicates that the voters have given two major parties that were in power until now a serious beating. The result is that the Greek parliament is so divided that it is difficult to see how it is possible to form a new government. The outcome of the elections over the weekend will contribute ...
Title:
Euro Testing Key Support Levels
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income Weak US payrolls push core bonds higher again
- On Friday, it was weaker US payrolls that helped core bonds eke out more gains, but non-core bonds held up quite well. Spreads even narrowed in the intra-EMU bond markets. We fear that this won't be the case today, as French and Greek election results inject uncertainty into markets.
- Currencies: Euro testing key support levels
- On Friday, trading in the major euro cross rate was rather calm, but the pressure remained to the downside. The US payrolls were unable to change this pattern. This morning, EUR/USD is testing the key 1.2974 support while EUR/GBP is trading south of the 0.8068 level. A sustained break below these levels would raise a red alert for the single currency.
The ...
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