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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on May 8th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/USD pair :
The pair EUR/USD found support yesterday on the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
Then, the pair has faked a return above 1.3050 and is currently falling towards 1.30.
All indicators are still bearish.
We continue to advise short positons as far as 1.31 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.30 and 1.2950 will both give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 1.31, we will wait the breakout of 1.3150 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair of May 7th, 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 08/05/2012
Today's Comment
We have seen small movements following yesterday's strong reaction to the elections in Greece and France. We expect that today will be a day of consolidation and volatility will fall. The financial market is playing the waiting game in respect of Greece. The largest party of the country has given up forming a government; now it is up to the second largest party. If it does not succeed, the third largest party will be in turn and then the president. If none of the parties succeed, new elections will be called. If a new election is called, we assess that this will result in a somewhat calmer development in the financial market.
Today industrial production data will be released in Germany and Norway. Our macro-economist expect a small increase for German industry.
Rumour ...
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Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 8th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
0.7921 is acting as support on the pair NZD/USD.
This level is currently tested after a small rebound yesterday.
All indicators stay bearish.
The pair is moving into its former bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8033 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.7921 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.7850.
In case of return above 0.8033, we will be neutral between this level and 0.8079.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 7th, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair on May 8th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/JPY pair :
The pair USD/JPY is currently testing a pullback on the resistance at 80 and also on the upper band of its bearish channel (black lines).
Indicators are still bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 80.50 is resistance.
The breakout of 79.50 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 79.
In case of return above 80.50, we will wait the breakout of 81.06 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the USD/JPY pair of May 7th, 2012
USD/JPY Analysis
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AUD-USD: After recording a 2012 low, eyes on the trade balance today!
After the AUD/USD pair recorded its lowest level in 2012 at 1.0195, today we are waiting for the trade balance data from the Australian economy during the month of March, which is expected to see a trade deficit of A $ 1300 million, compare to the previous reading which showed a deficit of A $ 480 million.
The trade deficit in Australia has started since January with the start of the year, when the economic indicators started to show a sluggish performance affected by the slowdown of the European region, in addition to the attempts from the Chinese government to cool down the growth pressure in China, which considered number one trade partner of Australia.
There are great opportunities to see an expansion of trade deficit in Australia today, and we are trying to take advantage of this ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/07/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France has elected new president, Francois Hollande who polled about 52% of the votes. Mr Hollande said that he is proud to return hope to people again. He also announced that he would attempt to rework deal regarding sovereign debt in the Euro Zone countries to promote economic expansion.
USD
The smalest payroll increase in last 6 months has not influenced the investors who still do not forecast another wave of recession in the US. Better housing and employment data has encouraged experts to believe that from the fundamental perspective the world's largest economy is on the path to recovery.
GBP
May 7 was a bank holiday in Great Britain.
CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2013 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds ...
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USD Mixed amid EU Political Uncertainty
USD is trading mixed against the majors - weaker against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK, NZD) and stronger against most European FX. Uncertainty arising from elections in Europe saw an increase in risk aversion which is seeing UST yields lower. The decline in Treasury yields is also a result of Fed policy expectations as hopes for QE3 are supported following Friday's weak employment report. Despite the option of QE3 being on the table, we maintain the view that it will take a significant deterioration for the Fed to provide more stimulus. While both risk aversion and QE3 hopes depress Treasury yields, they have adverse effects on the USD. Risk aversion is supportive of the buck as investors seek safety in Treasuries and QE3 speculation weakens the dollar as it suggests the Fed ...
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Greek Election Result Worry Traders
Forex News and Events:
A wave of anti-austerity election results has shifted the market’s attention away from the weak US payroll reports and has sent traders in search of safe-havens. France Socialist leader, Francois Hollande defeated President Sarkozy. Frances's new socialist President Hollande has expressed his distaste for the EU fiscal treaty and vowed to hold back France's vote until additional growth measures are included. However, we suspect Hollande will be more realistic with his insistence on changes in the fiscal pact by balancing demands with practical expectations of the bond market. Moving forward, we don’t expect the new president to damage their cost of capital and are already hear advisors tone down Hollande rhetoric. On the other hand the situation in Greece is ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 07/05/2012
Today's Comment
From the point of view of the financial markets, the elections in France and Greece on Sunday had the worst possible outcomes. In France, the winner was Hollande who in his political presentations emphasised that he will ensure new negotiations of the fiscal compact adopted recently by the EU. All other things being equal, this will result in instability in the financial markets and hence lead to a demand for safe-haven currencies and selling of EUR.
In Greece, the preliminary result indicates that the voters have given two major parties that were in power until now a serious beating. The result is that the Greek parliament is so divided that it is difficult to see how it is possible to form a new government. The outcome of the elections over the weekend will contribute ...
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