Chairman Maintained A Cautious

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review First-Quarter GDP Growth Slows The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, somewhat slower than the consensus had expected. Consumption remained the primary driver of growth as business spending slowed and the government sector continued to scale back spending. In our U.S. review section this week, we discuss the GDP report in the context of the big miss in durables and consider what it means for business spending going forward. We also look at a very small change in the Fed statement this week that reflects an improving view on the troubled housing sector. Business Spending Poised for a Slowdown? Durable goods orders for March were ugly. The 4.2 percent drop was the largest decline since the U.S. ...

The Week Ahead Highlights FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus More QE for the UK Spain and other sovereign concerns RBA to hold for now Market Moves FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus The past week has seen a multitude of Fed speakers express their views on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Voting members Bernanke, Lacker, Lockhart, Duke, and Dudley all delivered speeches as well as non-voters Plosser, Fisher, and Rosengren. The main focus was on Chairman Bernanke who reiterated his concern that the economic recovery is "slower than we would have hoped" and that "the job market remains far from normal". The Fed Chairman noted the benefits of continued accommodation and kept open the option for further easing. Markets will look to the release ...

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday renewed a pledge to prevent Europe's financial crisis from damaging the U.S. economy in testimony before Congress that mirrored remarks he made last week. "We are in frequent contact with European authorities, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely and take every available step to protect the U.S. financial system and the economy," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Senate Budget Committee. The Fed chairman maintained a cautious tone on the U.S. outlook and did not refer to surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data released on Friday. "We still have a long way to go before the labor market can be said to be operating normally," he said, employing language identical to remarks delivered on Thursday ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR Euro Zone's investor confidence for this month improved more than expected but remained in the negative territory for the sixth month in line. Sentix index added 2.9 points to minus 21.1 this month from minus 24 in December, reported Sentix market research group. Experts predicted the index to gain 0.5 points to minus 23.5. USD US employers managed to exceed expectations in creating new jobs adding more than 200,000 new jobs in December. The unemployment rate declined to 8.5%, hitting three-year low while the salaries and working hours jumped. Better than expected results follow increase in manufacturing activities and improved consumer confidence thus signaling on economic recovery of the US. GBP The U.K. government will host a series of conferences and ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review The Economy Still Faces Core Issues While it was a fairly light week for economic data, speeches by President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dominated headlines. The president outlined a plan that calls for payroll tax cuts and spending initiatives. Although the proposal could boost growth somewhat, we do not believe it fully addresses the core issues of weak consumer demand and structural unemployment. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech offered no new surprises, which puts greater weight on the two-day FOMC meeting scheduled in September. The Economy Continues to Grow at Stall Speed While it was a fairly light week for economic data, speeches by President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dominated ...

Markets gained a temporary sense of optimism as FX risk-correlated trades recover from yesterday’s sell off and equity markets rally in Asia. Yesterday we saw a sharp reversal - especially in the EURUSD as leveraged players cut their long positions after the pair lost momentum and seemed to run into resistance. EU officials are on the wires talking up the bank stress test due to be released this Friday. As we’ve already stated this week, we suspected that EU officials would throw a few sick banks under the bus in an effort to create the illusion of rigor. Greek, Spanish and now French officials have all been vocal affirming that the vast majority of their banks will pass the test. French Economic Minister Christine Lagarde stated she was "confident" about the results of the stress test ...

The Week Ahead Highlights * Risk rally stalls, more downside likely * EU bank stress test results are keenly awaited * UK Inflation debate may be fuelled * Bank of Canada Rate hike expected * Key data and events to watch next week Risk rally stalls, more downside likely Risk assets (stocks, commodities, JPY-crosses) started out the past week on solid gains, but ultimately failed to overcome key resistance levels. In stocks, the fact that 20 out of 23 US earnings reports beat expectations and shares could not advance should be alarming. In reality, though, it should also have been expected--as the outlook for the US recovery continued to slide, the future outlook for stocks was undermined (and earnings are mostly backward looking indicators anyway). The market is ...