Case It Loses Market

U.S. Review Modest Growth on a Broadening Base - The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter. - Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations. - Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent. Modest Growth on a Broadening Base This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for their biggest weekly loss in seven, as traders took to the sidelines ahead of key payrolls data later in the day, and as the euro weakened ahead of elections in France and Greece this weekend. The U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 8.30 a.m. EDT, a closely watched barometer of the wider economy, is expected to show the economy added 170,000 jobs in April. If the data beats expectations, it will further erode the case for the Federal Reserve to unleash another round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. That would likely hurt gold, as expectations for a fresh round of QE, which would undermine the dollar and keep real interest rates at rock-bottom levels, have been a major driver of higher gold prices this year. Spot ...

Stocks rose on Tuesday after strong earnings from big manufacturers and AT&T, but the Nasdaq declined on weakness from large-cap tech companies. The results continued the season's strong performance. With 153 S&P 500 components reporting, more than three-fourths have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research. AT&T Inc, 3M Co and United Technologies Corp, all Dow components, advanced after profits topped estimates, extending the trend of this season's robust results. "These results serve as a reminder that while near-term volatility is all but certain, the strength of corporate America remains intact, and valuations remain attractive," said Mark Martiak, senior wealth strategist at Premier/First Allied Securities in New York. AT&T advanced 3.8 percent to $31. ...

U.S. Review Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend. Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note. Early Spring Brings Payback Period The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "It is looking more and more likely that Spain is going to have some form of a bailout" - Lyn Graham-Taylor, Rabobank strategist Spain's cost of borrowing on the international debt markets breached the level of 6 per cent for 10-year bonds on Monday, mounting pressure on the European Central Bank to conduct new round of bond purchases. USD "There is no sign that higher fuel prices have damaged consumer sentiment and spending" - Jeremy Lawson, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas U.S. month on month retail sales rose by more than expected in March, said the Census Bureau on Monday. Total retail sales increased 0.8 per cent the previous month after increasing 1.0 per cent in February. GBP " is not a universal signal of a housing-market recovery" - Miles ...

www.sunbirdfx.com As we estimated few times during the previous week, Wall Street became extreme volatile after the launch of the results season, which makes it harder to analyze the markets with technical analysis. If you wondered why we always opened the daily analysis with a brief of the US stock markets, it is simply because they have a direct impact on the USD and actually on every pair of currencies. That is why the USD changed its direction dramatically during the week; the stocks went up & down according to the important firms' results. On the technical aspect, the S&P 500 broke down the important support at 1370 points but made a bullish correction right after, which made many traders to believe that the correction was temporary. However, the indices fell sharply on Friday and ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Equity markets ended the first quarter well" - Simon Denham, managing director of Capital Spreads The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.12 per cent to 259.07. Germany's DAX Index retreated 0.13 per cent and France's CAC 40 Index gained 0.19 per cent. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.35 per cent to 5,723.67. USD "You’re going to see a slowing in the pace of job growth" - Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Corp. The number of Americans, who have found a job in in March, fell to 120 thousand from 240 thousand the previous month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Unemployment slid to 8.2 per cent, the lowest in three years, from 8.3 per cent. GBP "If I were on the MPC, I'd be more worried about whether inflation is coming back (down) as ...

Forex News and Events: The sense of nervousness and trepidation continues to grow steadily around the situation in Europe. Sentiment has predominately been negative, skewing the analysis of any news information flow. The second LTRO was expected to herald the next phase of the risky asset rally, but instead became the harbinger of European economic moderation. The recent data released from the ECB indicates that euro zone banks have now hoarded the cash in the overnight deposit facility--to the tune of €820bn. Expectations that the fresh capital would trickle down into the broader economy have dried up producing another round of speculation regarding the duration of Europe’s economic contraction. The sudden collapse of the EURUSD and spike in implied vols, indicate the markets ...

Forex News and Events: A slew of news and speculation around the Greece PSI has taken the momentum right out of risky assets. In the European session news that the IIF are anticipating roughly €1 trillion in loses has traders worried. “There are some very important and damaging ramifications that would result from a disorderly default on Greek government debt,” the IIF said in a document obtained by Reuters. “It is difficult to add all these contingent liabilities up with any degree of precision, although it is hard to see how they would not exceed 1 trillion euros.” The document, obtained from a market source, was dated February 18 and marked “IIF Staff Note: Confidential”. Since then there has been a steady erosion in risk appetite. In addition there is heavy market chatter that PSI ...