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Capital Markets SaTitle:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German bunds rose on worries that European leaders will struggle to resolve the euro zone debt crisis during tonight's European summit. David Schnautz of Commerzbank AG in London thinks that Europe is unlikely to solve key topics and will probably disappoint the market. The 5-year bund lost 5 bp to 0.47 percent at 10:49 GMT after tumbling to 0.461 percent, the lowest since 1990, when Bloomberg began gathering data.
USD
Crude oil futures declined in Asian session on Wednesday as Iran is ready to invite nuclear inspectors, the move that may ease oil import sanctions. Light, sweet crude oil futures for July delivery traded at 91.27 US Dollars per barrel, retreating by 0.63% from the last session's high of 91.72 US Dollars per barrel.
GBP
Today the minutes of the ...
Title:
Will Greece Leave or Not?
We have heard conflicting information about Greece over the last 24 hours: first we heard that Greece was making plans to leave the Eurozone from former Prime Minister Papademos, which was denied. Then this morning reports from a German newspaper suggested that the ECB had set up a task force (tucked away in a bunker) working on the potential fallout from a Greek exit. It's likely that we will get these conflicting headlines between now and the end of the EU summit, which starts this evening at 1800 BST.
The markets' seemed to like the idea of an Avengers - style ECB working to combat the negative effects if Athens goes to the wall, and the euro bounced from its lowest level since 2010 earlier. But the real test will be the outcome of today's summit. So what should we expect and, ...
Title:
Gazprom reviews Shtokman line-up
(Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said it is reconsidering the composition of the consortium to develop the Shtokman offshore gas with a decision expected next month, further heightening uncertainty over the project's future.
"The project is being reviewed at the moment. A decision on members and the scheme is expected in June," Vitaly Markelov, Gazprom's deputy CEO, told a briefing on Wednesday.
Gazprom sources said that there could be a departure from Shtokman, where the Russian gas giant has partnered with Statoil (STL.OL) of Norway and Total (TOTF.PA) of France.
Total owns 25 percent, Statoil 24 percent and Gazprom the remainder of Shtokman, one of the world's largest gas fields with reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters located 550 kilometers (340 miles) offshore in the ...
Title:
Euro Rebound Short-Lived
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Profit taking continued, but now concluded?
- The profit taking on global core bond markets continued in the run-up to tonight's informal EU-Summit. Spanish and Italian spreads decreased significantly but yields remain at elevated levels. Today, the eco calendar is again thin and trading will again be driven by sentiment.
- Currencies: Euro rebound short-lived On
- Tuesday, the euro came again under pressure even as the global context was not that negative. Sentiment on risk was constructive and intra-EMU spreads narrowed, but all this didn't prevent investors to use any upticks in the single currency to further reduce exposure. The key 1.2642/24 support is again coming within reach.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of ...
Title:
Euro hits 21-month low versus dollar before EU summit
(Reuters) - The euro hit a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday ahead of an EU meeting later, with investors doubtful that leaders would come up with measures to stem the euro zone debt crisis.
An informal EU summit is expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but was not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany remains strongly opposed to joint euro bonds.
The euro fell to $1.2615, dropping below the 2012 low of $1.2624 set in January to mark its lowest since August 2010.
Fears that Greece may have to leave the euro grew after Dow Jones earlier quoted former prime minister Lucas Papademos as saying Greece had no choice but to stick with a painful austerity program or face a damaging exit from the euro zone.
However, ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The rally is mostly technically driven after we became quite oversold last week."
- Raimund Saxinger, a fund manager at Trust Investment GmbH
European stocks rose by the most in a month on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.91 per cent to 244.76. Germany’s DAX Index edged higher 1.65 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index added 1.88 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.86 per cent to 5,403.28
USD
"People are becoming more confident about job prospects and about taking on mortgages."
- Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities Inc.
U.S. existing home sales rose in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million from 4.47 million in March, said the National Association of Realtors.
GBP
"These figures give the Monetary Policy Committee ...
Title:
Investors driven by rumors as they wait for concrete solutions
MORNING BRIEFING: Investors driven by rumors as they wait for concrete solutions
What’s new:
Equity: Asian and US equities down on fears of a Greek euro exit
JPY: Fitch downgrade Japan’s long term rating to “A+” with a negative outlook
Forex: USD/JPY lower after BoJ stated it would keep its interest rate unchanged and made no changes to its QE.
Forex: EUR/USD was sold-off in the US session after some rumors of a Greece’s contingency plan
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2645 1.2689 -0.03 %
USD/CHF 0.9466 0.9498 -0.02 %
GBP/USD 1.5743 1.5772 -0.01 %
USD/JPY 79.45 80.08 0.50 %
EUR/CHF 1.2009 1.20135 0.02 %
EUR/JPY 100.61 101.48 0.54 %
Dow Jones 12447.33 12575.96 -0.01 %
Nasdaq 2524.11 ...
Title:
Cautious markets retreat before EU summit
(Reuters) - Riskier assets retreated broadly on Wednesday as hopes for fresh measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis faded and caution set in ahead of a meeting of European leaders, with sentiment hurt by renewed fears Greece would leave the euro bloc.
European shares also looked likely to slump, with financial spreadbetters predicting major European markets .FTSE .FCHI .GDAXI would open as much as 1.5 percent lower. U.S. stock futures were down 0.5 percent. .EU .L .N
Shares, commodities, commodity-linked currencies and the euro all slid, while safe-haven demand lifted the dollar index .DXY measured against major currencies up to 81.830, its highest since September 2010.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS slumped 2.0 percent. It had risen 1.1 ...
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