Cad Is Set To Underperform

They are the few, the brave, the unloved, and among big investors, their number shrinks by the month. They are the last of the bond bulls, the investors who believe long-term U.S. government bonds will extend a historic run that has already pushed interest rates to multi-decade lows. Recent surveys show broad disdain for Treasuries among market cognoscenti. A cross-section of star money managers and investors, including Warren Buffett, BlackRock's Larry Fink and even bond expert Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles, have urged investors to switch to stocks, arguing yields have nowhere to go but up. Yet the average retail investor keeps sending money to bond funds. And in the past few weeks, things have been moving in the bond bulls' favor. Fear of a Greek exit from the euro zone and JPMorgan ...

USD trading broadly higher (except against the JPY) as the Greek political impasse is raises concerns and increases risk aversion. The IMF remained firm saying that Greece must deliver necessary economic reforms and that it is not acceptable for the country to seek laxer loan terms. German officials are speaking out as well calling the latest developments ‘very worrying' and saying that Greeks must decide whether or not they want to stay in the euro. It is another light day for economic data in the US with weekly mortgage applications rising by +1.7% and March wholesale inventories due out at 1000ET. UST yields continues their descent across the curve with the 10-year yield falling below the 1.80% level as a result of both increased risk aversion and increased speculation of QE3. The ...

USD is trading firmly against the majors (except the JPY) with the Dollar Index advancing to approach the pivotal 80.00 level. With little economic data due out today, the market's focus remains on political developments in Europe and the elevated uncertainty is seeing traders shift away from risky assets and into safe havens. US Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year yield currently around 1.84% and US equities are lower with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently down by -0.60% and -0.68% respectively. The dollar is strongest against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) amid growth concerns and significant technical declines in commodities. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading below a long term trendline support which began at the lows in Oct. 2008 and crude oil is currently below its 200- ...

(Reuters) - European shares snapped a four-day rally and the single currency was under pressure on Monday as signs of a deepening euro zone recession raised suggestion that the region's governments could soften their approach to tackling budget deficits. U.S. shares were also set for a weaker start on the renewed euro zone concerns but investors were also focused on the weaker-than-expected reading on domestic economic growth. .N In the euro area trading was light ahead of May Day holidays on Tuesday, elections in France and Greece at the weekend and a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday where policymakers will have to consider the region's worsening economic health. "Market stresses have re-emerged in the euro area on concerns that deficit reduction targets may be sabotaged by a ...

Dollar Weaker ahead of FOMC USD softer against all of its major counterparts except for the British pound. Sentiment is improving today as global equities are broadly higher and yield spreads in Europe continue to ease. US Treasury yields are up with the 10-year yields approaching the pivotal 2.00% and the dollar index is lower as it remains below its daily cloud and Kijun line. Due out shortly at 0830ET are March durable goods orders which are expected to decline by -1.7% from the prior +2.2% on the headline print. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its 2-day meeting today and with no change expected on policy, the focus will be on the bank’s updated projections and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference. With recent commentary from some of the more hawkish Fed officials ( ...

Dollar Softer after EU Auctions, US Data USD lower across the board except against the AUD after European government debt auctions and moderately higher equities. European markets are trading positively while in the U.S., the DJIA and S&P 500 are currently up about +0.46% and +0.16% respectively. UST yields are broadly higher and the dollar index is lower after being rejected from the daily Kijun line which comes in around 79.40/45. The S&P/Case Shiller HPI fell by -3.49% y/y to 134.20 which was below expectations. Released moments ago was a slew of US data which showed April consumer confidence falling to 69.2 from the pior 69.5 (cons. 69.7), the Richmond Fed manufacturing index rising by more than forecast to 14 from the prior 7 (cons. 6), Feb. house price index rising by +0.3% (cons. + ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The outlook for the industrial sector is bleak" - Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group Euro-area industrial production unexpectedly rose in February, even as the region’s economy continued to slide into a recession. Production increased 0.5 per cent from January, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Thursday. USD "Import prices were certainly a problem for businesses in the last three months, but we’ve seen those pressures ease" - Jacob Oubina, a senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits rose to 380 thousand in the week ended April 7 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday. GBP "Concern persists that U.K. exports will be limited in the near ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR The jobless rate in Spain advanced by 0.8% or 38,769 in March reaching 4.75 million, government officials said on Tuesday. Annual unemployment level added 9.6% in March. In February Spain's jobless rate of 23.6% was the top level in the European Union. Spain currently works on massive reforms in its labour market. Economists expected the unemployment my surge even more before it will begin to decline. USD US manufacturing PMI expanded more than expected last month, indicating growth for the 32th month in line. The PMI measured by the Institute for Supply Management jumped by 1.0 point attaining 53.4 last month as compared to a February figure of 52.4. Experts had predicted the manufacturing PMI in the US to expand by 0.6 points to 53.0. GBP UK manufacturing ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We expect it to go higher, to reach 11 percent by the end of the year" - Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist at JP Morgan Euro zone unemployment rose to the highest since 1998, a sign the economy has slipped into recession. Unemployment increased to 10.8 per cent, said the European statistical agency on Monday. USD "We are seeing a broadening in the improvement across the economy" - Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities U.S. manufacturing growth accelerated in March, the latest evidence the economy is gaining momentum. GBP "UK manufacturing has made a brighter than expected start to 2012" - Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit The U.K. manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace for 10 months in March, Markit data showed on Monday. ...