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Analysis: A divergence of sentiment and reality?
(Reuters) - If there's nothing to fear but fear itself, as President Franklin Roosevelt contended during the Great Depression, then the world economy in 2011 has reached an interesting juncture between sentiment and reality.
The grim facts of the now four-year-old credit crisis and western economic funk are undeniable, even if still some distance from the ravages of the 1930s.
And there are some who argue the unhappy confluence of crippling household and government debt, policy exhaustion, aging populations and resource scarcity spells a long depression-like period of near-zero Western economic growth ahead.
But there is also a danger that all the negativity itself will push the global economy over the edge.
As Klaus Kleinfeld, CEO of the largest U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa Inc, said ...
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The March of (Trade) War?
“I want to go to war with China,” declared a presidential candidate last night on national TV.
Granted, we’re taking this declaration out of context. A little, anyway. “I don’t want to go to a trade war,” said former Sen. Rick Santorum. “I want to beat China. I want to go to war with China and make America the most attractive place in the world to do business.”
Before we begin, we have to say we’ve been dutifully ignoring the “China issue” for months.
Jim Chanos’ dire prediction of a collapse of the red charade amid our own fledgling effort to get a publishing business started in Beijing have put a damper on much of our enthusiasm since spring 2010.
Not to mention the fact that following our trip to China in May of that year, we made a series of stock recommendations for Chinese ...
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Exclusive: Gold to stay strong, top performing funds say
Gold will stay strong due to a lack of alternative havens for investors operating in a slowing global economy, top performing commodity fund managers told Reuters after taking a defensive approach and going into cash during September's gold sell off.
"We consider the current weakness in gold as temporary and also the slump in commodity prices should come to an end soon," said Kurt Hug, an investment adviser for the Antares Precious Metals Fund.
The fund came third in the Lipper Global commodity sector rankings in the third quarter of 2011 by keeping a high percentage of "strategic liquidity" in Swiss francs in anticipation of "a severe, but short-lived commodity shock."
Fund research and analysis organization Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company, covers more than 108,000 funds. The ...
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EUR Drops on Speculation of Interest Rate Cut by the ECB
The EUR dropped ahead of today's ECB meeting as investors speculate the European Central Bank will cut interest rates to encourage growth in the region. The Pound also dropped ahead of today's decision by the Bank of England regarding its interest rate and asset-purchase program.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Gains as Uncertainty about European Economy Grows
The USD has benefited recently as one of the two safe haven currencies as signs of economic downturn in Europe boosted demand for the currency as a refuge.
The EUR fell 102.21 yen; the 17-nation currency weakened 0.2% to $1.3322 after dropping to $1.3146 on Oct. 4, the lowest level since Jan. 13. The JPY was little changed at 76.73 per USD.
Traders today should follow the release of the US Unemployment Claims, heading to tomorrow's ...
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U.S. stocks' massive "melt-up" fans investor fears
In less than one hour on Tuesday, the U.S. stock market surged by 4 percent -- for no apparent reason.
The last hour of trading was the most volatile final hour in two months -- and it occurred at a speed that frightens many, from experienced hedge-fund managers to mom-and-pop investors.
The late-day "melt-up" that pushed the S&P 500 index .SPX out of bear-market territory might be construed as good news. But it brings back echoes of the "flash crash" that saw markets dive by several hundred points in a matter of minutes, and it's a big reason many are staying away from the market.
"Everyone is scared in both ways -- the shorts are scared, the longs are scared, everyone is scared. The high-net-worth investor is very, very scared," said Stephen Solaka, managing partner at Belmont Capital ...
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Euro/dollar rallies from near 9-month low on Bernanke
The euro bounced from a near nine-month low and rallied sharply against the dollar on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank is prepared to act further to help the economy.
The move higher in the euro then fed on itself as investors who had bet against the single currency were forced to buy and cover short positions to prevent more losses.
"We've been selling off over the last 48 hours or so, so we're overdue for a little bit of a bounce," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "The combination of people being short and Bernanke opening the door to QE 3 is helping stabilize sentiment."
The euro rose as high as $1.3301 on trading platform EBS. It last traded at $1.32661, up 0.7 percent on the day.
"The euro has been ...
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Markets Await the Release of Non Farm Data
U.S Non-Farm Data release is set to dominate the trading between the Dollar and its major currency pairs this week. A number of other factors are also likely to impact the forex market today, such as the US Manufacturing PMI and minimum Bid Rate. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following these vital announcements.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Gains on Euro Losses
The dollar saw a very volatile session during last week's trading. The dollar began last week's session with a falling trend against the euro and the British pound. The EUR/USD pair reached as high as the 1.3680 level and the GBP/USD reached as high as the 1.5715 level. Yet eventually both pairs reversed trends, the EUR/USD is now trading near the 1.3320 level, and the GBP/USD near the 1.5500 level.
The ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on September 30th, 2011
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair ADU/USD continues to move into its long term bearish channel (purple line).
The pair is still finding support on 0.97 but failed to break 0.98.
All indicators are bearish.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 0.99 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.97 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.96.
In case of return above 0.99, we will wait the breakout of 1.0 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of September 29th, 2011
AUD/USD Analysis
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Optimism Returns to Markets; Commodities, EUR Rally
Stock markets, commodities and other riskier assets rallied Tuesday on hopes the European officials will soon reach an agreement on measures for handling the Euro-Zone debt crisis.
Economic News
USD - USD Drops as Stock Markets Rally
The US Dollar declined Tuesday as global risk appetite recovered on growing speculation euro-zone will soon take measures to attack the debt crisis. As global stocks rallied Tuesday, safe currencies such as the USD and JPY declined versus their riskier counterparts.
The Dollar also lost some ground after the release of better than expected data from the US. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI showed U.S. home prices rose 0.9% in July and the CB Consumer Confidence also showed a slight increase this month, though came less than expected.
Wednesday, traders should ...
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