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But Ultimately The EuroTitle:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
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Gold slips in line with euro ahead of EU meeting
(Reuters) - Gold fell towards $1,550 an ounce in Europe, pressured by concerns that a European Union meeting later on Wednesday would fail to significantly ease worries over the euro zone debt crisis which lifted the dollar to a 21-month high against the euro.
The dollar, along with German bond futures, benefited from a flight from riskier assets, including stocks and commodities such as copper and oil.
Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,555.50 an ounce at 0930 GMT while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down $20.60 an ounce at $1,556.00.
"Gold is acting more as a risky asset, and everything is tumbling this morning ahead of this informal finance ministers meeting, where nothing good is really expected," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.
"It is not inconceivable that ...
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EUR/USD Rebound On Profit Taking
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: limited profit taking on core bond markets
- Global core bond markets fell prey to some profit taking in a thin, dull trading session. However, given the strength of equities, bond losses were very limited and occurred at the onset of trading. Today, the eco calendar remains thin and the profit taking might go some further in the run-up to tomorrow's informal EU Summit.
- Currencies EUR/USD rebound on profit taking
- The correction in EUR/USD was prolonged, but the euro gains were modest and mostly technical in nature. The UK inflation report is the eye-catcher of the day as it may influence sterling. However, overall trading might again be thin ahead of tomorrow's euro Summit.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second ...
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Greek Chaos Continues But Solution Ultimately Found
- While waiting for the Greek election on 17 June we are likely to see continued high uncertainty and continued high stress in the markets. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Amid this uncertainty, Greek citizens are likely to withdraw more money from their banks and this could escalate into a real bank run.
- A major game of chicken has started between the EU on the one hand and Greek politicians on the other.
- The EU is likely to stand firm on its demands for Greece to deliver austerity and give only a few concessions. The rethoric from the left coalition party Syriza is likely to continue to be fiercely against the EU as it is aiming to become the biggest party and get 50 bonus mandates for this.
- We look at three different post-election scenarios. ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Oil up on positive German data
Brent crude oil edged up on Tuesday on as the euro zone narrowly avoided recession and as better-than-forecast German first-quarter GDP data raised hopes that Germany would steer the way through the European debt crisis.
The euro zone economy stagnated with zero growth, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday, going against expectations of a recession.
The results were more positive than forecast, boosting riskier assets, and counterbalancing Greek political woes and a strengthening dollar. However, analysts believe the downward trend will ultimately prevail.
Brent crude rose by 53 cents to $112.10 a barrel by 1454 GMT and erasing the previous session's losses, when prices slid to $110.04, the lowest intraday price since January 25.
U.S. crude fell 3 cents to $94.75 a ...
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Euro near 3-1/2 month low vs dollar as Greece wrangles
The euro hovered near a 3-1/2-month low on Friday as Greek political parties made efforts to form a coalition government, and looked fragile as risk sentiment struggled on weak Chinese data and JPMorgan's shock trading losses.
The common currency was steady at $1.2936 after earlier hitting a trough of $1.2905, its lowest level since January 23. Investors were heavily focused on Greece, where inconclusive election results on Sunday threw the country into political disarray and raised the risk of it exiting the euro zone.
The euro climbed to a session high of $1.2956 as Greek conservative leader Antonis Samaras said there were still hopes a government could be formed, but came further pressure when the leader of the moderate Democratic Left said the country was heading for a repeat poll.
...
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Job-creating foreign investment in U.S. lags
(Reuters) - Foreign investment in the United States is ebbing and beefing it up is critical for economic growth as each job at a foreign company's U.S. unit supports three others, the Organization for International Investment said on Thursday.
A complex U.S. tax code and increasing global competition are curbing business development here by foreign companies. That trend is worrisome because foreign firms generally pay salaries to U.S. workers that exceed the industry average. This type of foreign investment, in turn, drives up employment and consumer spending.
"The global investment pie around the world has been getting larger, but our slice of that pie has been getting smaller as well as the share of GDP that foreign investment in the U.S. represents," Nancy McLernon, president and ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The grim unemployment figures for March will likely encourage talk about a long overdue ‘growth pact’ for the euro zone"
- Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group
Euro area unemployment rose to the highest level since 1997 in March and manufacturing contracted in April, adding to signs the economy is still far from out of the woods.
USD
"Employment growth is slowing"
- David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector fell to 119,000 in April from a revised 201,000 in March, the ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
GBP
" points to clear, decent construction expansion in April"
- Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. construction sector expanded slower in April, compared ...
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