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But Still In The Right DirectionTitle:
European Market Update : 23/05/2012
Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works
Economic Data
(GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior
(NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior
(SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e
(EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior
(IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996))
(ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e
(TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior
(UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e
(UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...
Title:
Euro Rebound Short-Lived
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Profit taking continued, but now concluded?
- The profit taking on global core bond markets continued in the run-up to tonight's informal EU-Summit. Spanish and Italian spreads decreased significantly but yields remain at elevated levels. Today, the eco calendar is again thin and trading will again be driven by sentiment.
- Currencies: Euro rebound short-lived On
- Tuesday, the euro came again under pressure even as the global context was not that negative. Sentiment on risk was constructive and intra-EMU spreads narrowed, but all this didn't prevent investors to use any upticks in the single currency to further reduce exposure. The key 1.2642/24 support is again coming within reach.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of ...
Title:
Gold falls as euro stumbles ahead of EU summit
(Reuters) - Gold eased on Tuesday under the weight of a weaker euro, while platinum shrugged off news of fresh disruption to production at South Africa's largest miner of the metal.
The euro remained clear of last week's four-month lows but was stuck in negative territory against the dollar ahead of an informal meeting later this week of European leaders aimed at discussing ways of stemming the debt crisis.
Across the broader markets, European blue-chip shares clung on to their gains, lifted by investors buying back some of the more heavily-sold names, while modest optimism that the summit could offer some interim solution to the crisis put pressure on safe-haven German Bunds.
Spot gold was down 1.0 percent at $1,576/26 an ounce by 6:15 a.m. EDT (1015 GMT). The price is still showing ...
Title:
Euro Succeeds Short Squeeze
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather
- Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode.
- Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze
- On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013"
- Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG
Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday.
USD
"Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens"
- Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital
The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55.
GBP
Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...
Title:
Housing Starts Break 700K for the Third Time Since 2008
Housing Starts Break 700K for the Third Time Since 2008
Housing starts rose to 717K units in April, ahead of market expectations for 685K. Revisions were also positive, bringing the level of housing starts in March to 699K from a previously reported 654K. Housing starts are up 29.9% from their levels a year ago.
The rise in total starts was led by multi-family starts, which rose 3.2% to 225K. Singlefamily starts were up 2.3% to 492K units.
Building permits, on the other hand, fell 7.0% to 715K units. The decline was due to a 20.8% fall in multi-family permits, following a 32.3% increase in March.
Key Implications
Housing starts appear to have reached a new plateau above 700K in the first few months of 2012. While we do not expect a major resurgence in housing construction over the ...
Title:
Euro Sell-Off Accelerates As Greece Will Hold Now Elections
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Fresh elections in Greece further support core bonds
- German bund came off the contract highs at the start of the session on better German Q1 GDP data. The move didn't last long however and the announcement of fresh Greek elections marked an intraday U-turn. This morning, the German Bund future and US Note future once again reach new contract highs.
- Currencies: euro sell-off accelerates as Greece will hold now elections.
- On Tuesday morning it looked temporary that the euro might enjoy some breathing space as the German Q1 growth was much stronger than expected. However, the rebound had no momentum at all. The euro was again hammered as talks on the formation of the Greek government collapsed. Is the euro heading for a free fall? ...
Title:
Pressures intensify on European leaders
Confidence is already in short supply in financial markets and could evaporate further in the coming week if investors judge that Europe's often fractious political leaders aren't mapping out a sustainable path through the current crisis.
Over the past week investors have been rocked by the increased likelihood of Greece leaving the euro, and an admission by one of the world's more highly regarded banks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), of an embarrassing failure in risk management.
Many in the markets are now looking to Europe's political leaders to signal a shift in the German-led austerity drive across Europe which they now see as threatening the fragile recovery underway in the world economy if cuts are not tempered with some efforts to encourage growth.
Credit rating agency Fitch put the ...
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