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Bullish Rally And The BreakoutTitle:
Holiday in Europe Keeps Trading Subdued
Forex News and Events:
While the news flow emanating from Europe has slowed, proving a temporary respite from risky assets, the pressure on Greek banks is growing. After market chatter and media reports, the ECB confirmed that some Greek banks had turned to the Bank of Greece for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) pending recapitalization. The recapitalization that was to be finalized 'soon', and in theory would allow troubled Greek banks to return to normal ECB funding channels. However, with the other story that massive deposits are being withdrawn from Greek banks (€700bn ins May 6th election) circulating, the erosion of core capital means the prospects of these institution quickly returning to ECB seem unlikely. The recent ECB 3 year LTRO operation was an attempt to build a firewall ...
Title:
Spotlight on the Sterling
Forex News and Events:
Yesterday’s European session was a breather for the Euro area as German GDP came in much better than expected at 0.5% q-o-q. The strength of Germany’s numbers pulled EU’s GDP higher to 0.0% against a forecast -0.2%, avoiding a technical recession after last quarter’s -0.3% GDP. Nevertheless, both German and Euro zone economic sentiments were lower, underscoring a fading institutional optimism over economic health. GDP for the biggest European economies after Germany were worrisome, with France generating no growth in the first quarter of 2012 while Italy and Spain’s economies contracted by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively over the same period. The situation in Greece is still moving towards a new round of elections with Independent Greeks party leader Kammemos announcing ...
Title:
Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
Title:
China’s growth engine cooling down
Forex News and Events:
As anticipated in Friday’s newsletter, China cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio for the second time this year. Shielded by easing inflation, Chinese authorities relaxed their grip on banks’ cash reserves parked at the PBoC through a 50 basis point cut effective starting May 18. This measure will allow the RRR to drop to 20% for the main national financial institutions and will release an estimated CNY 400bn in capital into the market. The move came after the publication of a weaker-than-expected Chinese Trade balance on Thursday, indicating exports and imports grew by 4.9% and 0.3% y-o-y respectively, a far cry from the 10 and 11 percent goals for the year. The near-zero import growth could be explained by the piling up of metal domestic inventories and might affect ...
Title:
Ongoing Greek Drama
Forex News and Events:
In light of the current political turmoil in Greece, the EUR has gradually slipped to a three-month low at 1.2905 after a period of trading in a highly volatile range. The move coincides with the election on May 6th of anti-austerity Greek fringe parties, instead of the mainstream PASOK or New Democracy Party who helped secure the bailout package much needed to avoid disorderly default. After multiple attempts at forming a coalition government, the task has been handed to Mr Venizelos who reckoned having a slim chance of succeeding where others have failed. After a meeting with Venizelos yesterday evening, Democratic Left Party’s Kouvelis suggested a “formation of an ecumenical government that will respect the people’s mandate”. These statements coincide with weak ...
Title:
All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
Title:
Political Situation in Greece Drives Risky Assets lower
Forex News and Events:
Considering the risk building in Europe, the EUR has held up surprisingly well. However, given the following headlines from Greece, we doubt how much longer the single currency can remain resilient. Conservative leader Samaras stated “I tried to form a coalition government with two goals: that the country remain in the euro and bailout policies change to include growth measures,” the lack of success after 6 hrs of talks in Athens means he will hand over the mandate back to the president. This also means that the attempt to form a government will now be passed to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, who has vowed to derail the current bailout path. Comments from Tsipras overnight has rattled the markets nerves as the Syriza leader Alex stated that he will annul the ...
Title:
Greek Election Result Worry Traders
Forex News and Events:
A wave of anti-austerity election results has shifted the market’s attention away from the weak US payroll reports and has sent traders in search of safe-havens. France Socialist leader, Francois Hollande defeated President Sarkozy. Frances's new socialist President Hollande has expressed his distaste for the EU fiscal treaty and vowed to hold back France's vote until additional growth measures are included. However, we suspect Hollande will be more realistic with his insistence on changes in the fiscal pact by balancing demands with practical expectations of the bond market. Moving forward, we don’t expect the new president to damage their cost of capital and are already hear advisors tone down Hollande rhetoric. On the other hand the situation in Greece is ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Technically, easier monetary policy conditions should be currency negative."
- Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank
The European Central Bank held key rate at 1 per cent on Thursday and told it expects a gradual economic recovery this year.
USD
"Labor market conditions have improved in recent months."
- Federal Open Market Committee
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits tumbled to 365,000 in the week ended April 28 from 392,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"The service sector started the second quarter on a weaker note than in the first quarter, but continued to grow at a reasonable pace."
- Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit
U.K. service sector growth slowed in April, Markit Economics data showed on ...
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