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BullishTitle:
Risk Aversion Boosts the USD, JPY
USD trading broadly higher (except against the JPY) as the Greek political impasse is raises concerns and increases risk aversion. The IMF remained firm saying that Greece must deliver necessary economic reforms and that it is not acceptable for the country to seek laxer loan terms. German officials are speaking out as well calling the latest developments very worrying' and saying that Greeks must decide whether or not they want to stay in the euro. It is another light day for economic data in the US with weekly mortgage applications rising by +1.7% and March wholesale inventories due out at 1000ET. UST yields continues their descent across the curve with the 10-year yield falling below the 1.80% level as a result of both increased risk aversion and increased speculation of QE3. The ...
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Technical look at the majors
Currencies on the brick of breaking key multi-week technical levels, while the greenback continues to command. The USDIX has broken a key descending trend line today, after forming a bottom at the main ascending support of the ascending channel. This breach could be the start of something bigger, as the longer term outlook shall point towards an initial rally towards 2012 high at 81.69.
The EUR/USD has penetrated the key support and psychological level at 1.3000-1.2972, currently trading below 1.2935. If the pair manages to hold below this key level for today, a downside move towards 1.2625 lows may be inevitable, while the bearish bias shall remain intact so long as 1.3100 is holding.
The GBP/USD fell sharply today, currently testing the key support and previous high around 1.6060. A ...
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Political Situation in Greece Drives Risky Assets lower
Forex News and Events:
Considering the risk building in Europe, the EUR has held up surprisingly well. However, given the following headlines from Greece, we doubt how much longer the single currency can remain resilient. Conservative leader Samaras stated I tried to form a coalition government with two goals: that the country remain in the euro and bailout policies change to include growth measures, the lack of success after 6 hrs of talks in Athens means he will hand over the mandate back to the president. This also means that the attempt to form a government will now be passed to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, who has vowed to derail the current bailout path. Comments from Tsipras overnight has rattled the markets nerves as the Syriza leader Alex stated that he will annul the ...
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Slow News Day May Lead to Further Euro Losses
The euro remained relatively unchanged vs. its main rivals throughout the European session yesterday, as political uncertainty in the euro-zone kept the currency near its recent lows. After dropping as low as 1.3000 during early morning trading, the EUR/USD spent most of the day trading around 1.3010. Turning to today, a slow news day may lead to low liquidity in the marketplace. Traders will want to note that a low liquidity environment can often lead to unexpected price shifts for seemingly no reason. Given the euro's recent bearish trend, the possibility for further downward movement for the common currency exists.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Remains Bearish vs. JPY
The US dollar remained below the psychologically significant 80.00 level vs. the Japanese yen throughout yesterday's ...
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Technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair on May 9th, 2012
Commentary of the GBP/USD pair :
The pair GBP/USD has failed to break the resistance at 1.62 yesterday and is currently making a correction.
Indicators are neutral.
The pair is still moving above a medium term bullish slant (black line).
We continue to advise long positions as far as 1.61 is support.
The breakout of 1.62 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 1.63.
In case of return below 1.61, a sell signal will be given.
See the previous analysis of the GBP/USD pair of May 8th, 2012
GBP/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair on May 9th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CAD pair :
The pair USD/CAD took up yesterday its bullish movement, making a return above 0.9965 (which comfort our bullish feeling).
Currently, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.0020.
All indicators are bullish.
We continue to advise long positions as far as 0.9932 is support.
A return above 0.9965 will comfort our bullish feeling.
The breakout of 1.0020 will give a new buy signal and will open the way towards 1.0050.
In case of return below 0.9932, we will be neutral between this level and 0.99.
The breakout of 0.99 will give a sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CAD pair of May 8th, 2012
USD/CAD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair on May 9th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CHF pair :
The pair USD/CHF made yesterday a pullback on the support at 0.92 and is currently testing the resistance at 0.9258.
The opening gap is still not filled in.
All indicators are bullish.
We continue to advise long positons as far as 0.9180 is support.
The breakout of 0.9258 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 0.93.
In case of return below 0.9180, we will be neutral between this level and 0.9150.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CHF pair of May 8th, 2012
USD/CHF Analysis
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 05/09/2012
EUR USD
One more dip to 1.2994 - 1.2971 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.3036 - 1.3053. After which it can resume its downtrend.
USD CHF
Current rise should end around 0.9260. Objectives of this downmove are 0.9204 or 0.9172. A rise above 0.9284 is again bullish.
GBP USD
One more dip to 1.6141 or 1.6122 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.6179 - 1.6197. After which it can resume its downtrend.
USD JPY
Any possible decline should be supported around 79.70 - 79.52 zone for rally to above 80.26. A clear break of 79.33 will damage this expected rally
USD CAD
Current upmove should be ended around 1.0005 - 1.0032. Any correction consolidation should find support in 0.9956 - 0.9933 zone.
NZD USD
Market should not go lower than 0.7869 - 0.7834. ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 8th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair continues to move on the upper band of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines).
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its long term bullish channel.
Indicators are globaly bearish.
The pair is currently testing the support at 1630 points.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1640 points is resistance.
The breakout of 1630 and 1620 will both give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1600 points.
In case of return above 1640 points, we will wait the breakout of 1650 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 7th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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