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Bullish Momentum SeenTitle:
Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
The pair comes under increased pressure after recovery attempt stalled just above 1.2800 and renewed risk-off sentiment pushed the price lower to fully retrace recent 1.2641/1.2823 corrective leg. Negative studies keep our short-term target at 1.2622 in focus, with consolidative/corrective action above 1.2641, seen on overextended hourly studies. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2680/1.2900 zone, while only lift above 1.2730/50 would provide near-term relief.
Res: 1.2780, 1.2800, 1.2811, 1.2823
Sup: 1.2657, 1.2641, 1.2622, 1.2622
GBP/USD
Cable flirts with recent low at 1.5731, as mild corrective attempt didn’t show much of action and gains being capped at 1.5840. Reversal to the lows, along with negative short and longer-term studies and yesterday’s close below 200 day MA, ...
Title:
The Endgame of the Greek Crisis
Forex News and Events:
It has taken two-and-a-half years, and nearly USD 300bn of IMF/EU funds for markets to finally weigh in a more probable than not exit of the debt-laden country. Greece’s EMU exit is imminent for the second time in the last six months. Surprisingly though, the trigger for the recent gloomy expectations for Greece was not exclusively of an economic nature but also politics. During May 6 elections, the Greeks expressed their unwillingness to abide by the agreed-upon austerity measures. It wouldn’t have been a very dangerous position had Greece been solvent, but regardless of EU officials’ reassurance of continued help for Greece throughout the process, the country would run out of funds for the next installments due end of June and early July. In addition to markets ...
Title:
Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
Title:
Markets Hold Ground, Awaiting Central Banks to Move
Taking a general look at markets before the end of this week, we can see that the bearishness started to lose momentum as traders are speculating now what tools Central Banks might provide to revive the slowing pace of recovery, especially the European Central Bank amid the current political instability in Greece, the confirmed recession in Spain and Italy and the deepening debt crisis.
Moreover, investors are still worried and concerned regarding the general trend in markets, where after the Federal Reserve reassured that a slowing recovery in the U.S. might trigger another round of quantitative easing, volatility dominated markets as predicting the coming moves became highly uncertain as Politicians failed to calm markets and the fueled debt crisis, leaving policymakers with a difficult ...
Title:
A mild relief on Merkel, upbeat U.S. data
After the deep selloff markets recover some of earlier losses triggered by fears of “Grexit”, after politicians failed to find a common ground and name a new coalition government. Meanwhile Angela Merkel in an interview with CNBC reiterated following many European politicians “I want Greece to stay in the Euro” giving markets a minor relief, and a reason to rebound in a normal pullback after being oversold.
The EUR/USD decently off lows, the pair has traded the lowest since January today at 1.2680, and currently trading around 1.2750. Meanwhile, U.S. housing sector continues to show recovery, as building permits fell to 715,000 last month, however March permits were revised upward to 769,000. Housing starts rose to 717,000 units, while March reading of 654,000 was revised to 699,000. On ...
Title:
Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
The single currency spirals lower after yesterday’s break below 1.2800 handle and longer-term bull trendline at 1.2770 and today’s loss of the last obstacle at 1.2700, towards 1.2622, January’s yearly low. Negative sentiment keeps the pair under heavy pressure and despite short-term studies being at their extreme levels, the price action continues to increase the pace of descending. Break below 1.2622 to open 1.2586 Aug 2010 low next, with 1.2000/zone expected to come in short-term focus. Initial resistance lies at 1.2720, with more significant barriers at 1.2800/15 and 1.2868.
Res: 1.2700, 1.2720, 1.2800, 1.2815
Sup: 1.2622, 1.2586, 1.2550, 1.2500
GBP/USD
The pair accelerated losses after losing key supports at 1.6050 and 1.6000, with break below 55 day MA at 1.5959, looking ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”"
- Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro
Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
USD
"There’s a lot of slack in the economy"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday.
GBP
"March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...
Title:
Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
Title:
Ongoing Greek Drama
Forex News and Events:
In light of the current political turmoil in Greece, the EUR has gradually slipped to a three-month low at 1.2905 after a period of trading in a highly volatile range. The move coincides with the election on May 6th of anti-austerity Greek fringe parties, instead of the mainstream PASOK or New Democracy Party who helped secure the bailout package much needed to avoid disorderly default. After multiple attempts at forming a coalition government, the task has been handed to Mr Venizelos who reckoned having a slim chance of succeeding where others have failed. After a meeting with Venizelos yesterday evening, Democratic Left Party’s Kouvelis suggested a “formation of an ecumenical government that will respect the people’s mandate”. These statements coincide with weak ...
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