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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 10/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The real concern isn’t about Greece, it’s about the euro and whether it breaks up -- that is key."
- Mark Tinker, a fund manager at AXA Framlington Investment EUR Management
European stocks declined on Wednesday as investors awaited resolution of Greek coalition talks and yields on Spanish 10-year bonds rose above 6 per cent.
USD
"Certainly as a result of the elections in Greece, the odds of a default and an exit from the euro have increased."
- James Dunigan, chief investment officer for PNC Wealth Management
U.S. wholesale inventories rose in March at a slowest pace since November, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday.
GBP
"Consumers, struggling to balance their household budgets, remain reluctant to spend..."
- Stephen Robertson, BRC director ...
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Obama threatens to veto Republican's shield of defense cuts
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama threatened on Wednesday to veto a Republican bill that would partially replace looming automatic budget cuts and protect military spending at the expense of food stamps and other social programs.
The White House said in a statement that the cuts proposed by Republicans would "cost jobs and hurt middle-class and vulnerable Americans - especially seniors, veterans and children."
"The bill's unbalanced provisions fail the test of fairness and shared responsibility," the White House added.
The veto threat escalates one of several new budget battles that have broken out this spring in Washington.
The automatic cuts, about $1.2 trillion over 10 years, were set in motion by last summer's debt-limit deal, after a congressional panel failed to specify further ...
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Technical look at the majors
Currencies on the brick of breaking key multi-week technical levels, while the greenback continues to command. The USDIX has broken a key descending trend line today, after forming a bottom at the main ascending support of the ascending channel. This breach could be the start of something bigger, as the longer term outlook shall point towards an initial rally towards 2012 high at 81.69.
The EUR/USD has penetrated the key support and psychological level at 1.3000-1.2972, currently trading below 1.2935. If the pair manages to hold below this key level for today, a downside move towards 1.2625 lows may be inevitable, while the bearish bias shall remain intact so long as 1.3100 is holding.
The GBP/USD fell sharply today, currently testing the key support and previous high around 1.6060. A ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
Upside rejection at 1.3060 zone and quick reversal under 1.3000 handle, confirms the pair being under heavy pressure. Overnight’s easing touched levels just few ticks ahead our initial target and strong support at 1.2953, with negative sentiment setting scope for fresh bear phase. Break below 1.2953 to expose 1.2900 and 1.2875. Potential corrective attempts should be capped at 1.3040/60 are and only clearance of 1.3100 would provide near-term relief.
Res: 1.3000, 1.3040, 1.3063, 1.3080
Sup: 1.2964, 1.2953, 1.2930, 1.2900
GBP/USD
Near-term attempts to base above recent low and Fibonacci support at 1.6113, remains in play, however, still weak near-term studies, keep the immediate focus at the downside, as daily studies started to point lower. Break below 1.6120/00 support zone ...
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Heavy Euro Selling Pressure As Greece Standoff Continues
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the mood soured overnight in the US session and into Wednesday’s Asian session as rhetoric of the Greece far left politicians suggested the recent bailouts may be torn up and Greece forced to exit the Eurozone. The EUR/USD has broken below 1.3000 once again and Gold is falling heavily as USD and cash become king. Looking ahead, FOMC Member Pianalto.
The Euro (EUR) focus has swung back to the Europe and the Greece elections continuing to have negative effects on the market. The Greece political stalemate is unlikely to end shortly and the uncertainty will likely lead to more selling. Major support is seen at 1.2950 and we are poised to test this level this session. The Sterling (GBP) The GBP/USD was sold down to the 1.6125 on the risk aversion but EUR/GBP selling ...
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PRECIOUS-Gold dips to 4-month low on Greece uncertainty
(Reuters) - Gold dropped to a four-month low on Wednesday, pressured by a weaker euro as investors fretted about the political upheavals in Greece that threaten to sink the country into chaos and endanger the euro zone's efforts to end the debt crisis.
Spot gold lost more than 1 percent to a four-month low of $1,586.74 an ounce, extending a 2-percent slide from the previous session. It stood at $1,588.64 by 00:13 EDT (0413 GMT).
U.S. gold also dropped to a four-month trough, at $1,589.50.
The leftwing leader who was mandated to form a government in Greece has so far failed to do so after Sunday's election, as his opposition to a bailout deal seen crucial for the economy alienated mainstream parties and shook market confidence that the euro zone will pull itself out of the debt crisis.
...
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U.S. sees China pushed to let market forces work
(Reuters) - China will be compelled to let market forces play a larger role in managing its economy as it faces complicated challenges ranging from an aging population to rising wages and prices, a senior U.S. Treasury Department official said on Tuesday.
Lael Brainard, the Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs, told a group of business people, diplomats and academics that China faces "an extraordinarily steep demographic cliff" that will reduce the advantage of a young labor force willing to work cheaply.
"Wages and costs are rising rapidly. There is a self-reinforcing momentum to have market forces determine how capital is allocated, how exchange rates adjust," Brainard said during a discussion about last week's Strategic and Economic Dialogue talks in Beijing.
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 05/09/2012
EUR – USD
One more dip to 1.2994 - 1.2971 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.3036 - 1.3053. After which it can resume its downtrend.
USD – CHF
Current rise should end around 0.9260. Objectives of this downmove are 0.9204 or 0.9172. A rise above 0.9284 is again bullish.
GBP – USD
One more dip to 1.6141 or 1.6122 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.6179 - 1.6197. After which it can resume its downtrend.
USD – JPY
Any possible decline should be supported around 79.70 - 79.52 zone for rally to above 80.26. A clear break of 79.33 will damage this expected rally
USD – CAD
Current upmove should be ended around 1.0005 - 1.0032. Any correction consolidation should find support in 0.9956 - 0.9933 zone.
NZD – USD
Market should not go lower than 0.7869 - 0.7834. ...
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Gold down 2 percent, below $1,600 on euro bailout doubts
Gold fell more than 2 percent toward this year's lows on Tuesday, briefly breaking below $1,600 an ounce as questions over whether Greece will obtain a bailout and the broader euro zone debt crisis triggered a technical sell-off.
Bullion, which has largely failed to rally on economic uncertainties this year, is on track for its biggest one-day drop in more than two months. Analysts said political uncertainty in Greece and a change of French presidents had investors questioning whether Europe would come through with the billions of euros needed to bail out its troubled economies.
"Absent new monetary stimulus, gold doesn't make sense. As people are fearful of the fiat currencies eroding their wealth, that's when gold catches its bid," said Jeffrey Sherman, commodities portfolio manager of ...
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