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Board Confidence SurveyTitle:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 30/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Once we hit the 6.5 per cent mark , the alarm bells will go off loudly in Brussels and more rhetoric will be coming from the European Central Bank"
- Adrian Miller, a global markets strategist at GMP
The rating agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Spain’s credit rating by two notches to BBB-plus with a negative outlook from A, citing expectations the government finances will deteriorate.
USD
"While the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, the expansion remains modest in pace and subpar from a historical perspective"
- Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than forecast in the first quarter as businesses cut on investment. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.2 per cent ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 26/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Deutsche Bank, the German biggest lender posted a 33% drop in its first quarter profit, citing debt crisis as a negative force that curbed trading. Net income declined to EUR 1.38 billion (USD 1.82 billion) compared to EUR 2.06 billion in the same period last year. Economists questioned by Bloomberg expected the profit to decrease less to EUR 1.56 billion. Deutsche Bank shares have added 16% this year.
USD
Crude oil fluctuated close to a one-week record high as Fed claimed they expect the economic growth to advance, encouraging the speculation that fuel demand will increase. Moreover Iran announced it may stop its nuclear expansion. June crude traded at USD 104.07 a barrel after climbing USD 0.57 yesterday. Brent oil to be delivered in June traded at USD 119 a ...
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Fed Doesn't Help The Dollar
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Small changes after volatile trading
- Core bonds traded volatile due to economic data and bond auctions. The Fed had the final saying. The FOMC statement showed that the Fed was slightly more optimistic on growth and the governors more hawkish in their rate forecasts. However, policy remains unchanged and Bernanke kept the door for more QE open.
- Currencies: Fed doesn't help the dollar
- On Wednesday, trading in most major currency cross rates was confined to recent ranges. EUR/USD is holding near the recent highs. The Fed kept a soft tone and this was a slightly negative for the dollar. Sterling lost temporary ground as Q1 GDP data showed that the UK has slipped back into recession. However, the EUR/GBP 0.8222 resistance did its job. ...
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European Market Update : 24/04/2012
(EU) ECB: €562M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €311M prior; €767.8B parked in deposit facility v €775.7B prior
(CH) Swiss Mar Trade Balance (CHF): 1.7B v 3.0Be; Real Exports M/M:-2.5% v +1.0%e; Real Imports M/M: 4.6% v -12.2% prior
(FI) Finland Mar PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.8%e
(FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.2%e
(CH) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.22 v 0.90 prior
(FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: 88 v 87e; Business Survey Overall Demand: +4 v -8 prior
(ES) Spain Feb Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -49.6 v -34.0% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -47.1 v -41.3% prior
(CZ) Czech Apr Business Confidence: +7.5 v +9.6 prior; Consumer Confidence: -29.3 v -29.5 prior; Composite: +0.2 v +1.7 prior
(HU) Hungary Feb Retail Trade Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.2%e
(ZA) South ...
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EUR/USD Showed Only Limited Losses Even As Risky Assets Were Sold
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: the only way was up
- Political tensions in the Netherlands and France in combination with weak PMI data set the tone for a risk off environment in which especially German bonds profited. The Bund set a new contract high and the German 10-yr yield set a minor record low (1.63%). The Dutch spread added 18 bps (78 bps) and is well underway to a the all time high (86 bps).
- Currencies: EUR/USD showed only limited losses even as risky assets were sold
- On Monday, EUR/USD ceded ground as negative political and economic headlines from Europe weighed on global market sentiment. However, investors were also cautious on the dollar ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. Sterling was again an outperformer as EUR/GBP reached a new correction low.
...
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European Market Update : 23/04/2012
Political uncertainty in Europe weights upon risk appetite; Major European PMI data disappoints
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €311M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €335M prior; €775.7B parked in deposit facility v €746.5B prior
(FR) France Apr Business Confidence: 95 v 96e; Production Outlook: -14 v -15 prior; Own-Company Production Outlook: -4 v +8 prior
(FR) France Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 47.3 v 47.4e; PMI Services: 46.4 v 50.1e
(CH) Swiss M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.6 v 6.4% prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 Real Estate Index Family Homes: 410.4 v 404.6 prior
(NL) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence: -3.3 v -2.6 prior
(DE) Germany Apr Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.3 v 49.0e; PMI Services: 52.6 v 52.3e
(EU) Euro Zone Apr Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.0 v 48.1e; PMI Services: 47.9 v 49.3e; ...
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Asian Market Update : 23/04/2012
China HSBC flash PMI recovers but still in contraction; Weak Aussie PPI points to rate cut; Dutch govt collapses
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA APR HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.1 V 48.3 PRIOR (6th month of contraction)
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Q/Q: -0.3% V +0.5%E (first decline since Q4 of 2009); Y/Y: 1.4% V 2.2%E (lowest since Q2 of 2010)
(SG) SINGAPORE MAR CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 4.7%E
(JP) JAPAN MAR NATIONWIDE SUPERMARKET SALES Y/Y: -2.4% V +0.3% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN FEB FINAL LEADING INDEX: 96.3 V 96.6 PRELIM; COINCIDENT INDEX: 95.0 V 93.7 PRELIM
(HU) HUNGARY APR ECONOMIC SENTIMENT: -19.3 V -19.0 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: -9.0 V -8.1 PRIOR; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -48.8 V -49.9 PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 -0.1%
S&P/ASX -0.2%
Kospi -1.2%
...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 20/04/2012
U.S. Review
Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend
This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend.
Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note.
Early Spring Brings Payback Period
The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...
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Again rating fears
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Risk appetite suffered overnight after the Wall Street Journal reminded investors that Moody’s has the ratings of 114 European banks on review for a possible downgrade. We note that this review was announced in mid-February and that the article contained little new information. Elsewhere, China‘s weekend decision to widen the USDCNY trading band from ?0.5% to ?1%, effective today, had very little effect on G10 currencies.
Rather, the key message is that greater CNY volatility will be tolerated – one of the many anticipated steps towards the PBoC’s long-term goal of full regime liberalisation. The move could benefit G10 commodity bloc currencies at the margin to the extent it signals confidence in China‘s economy, but China‘s broader macro ...
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