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Billion Euro DeficitTitle:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German bunds rose on worries that European leaders will struggle to resolve the euro zone debt crisis during tonight's European summit. David Schnautz of Commerzbank AG in London thinks that Europe is unlikely to solve key topics and will probably disappoint the market. The 5-year bund lost 5 bp to 0.47 percent at 10:49 GMT after tumbling to 0.461 percent, the lowest since 1990, when Bloomberg began gathering data.
USD
Crude oil futures declined in Asian session on Wednesday as Iran is ready to invite nuclear inspectors, the move that may ease oil import sanctions. Light, sweet crude oil futures for July delivery traded at 91.27 US Dollars per barrel, retreating by 0.63% from the last session's high of 91.72 US Dollars per barrel.
GBP
Today the minutes of the ...
Title:
YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 05/16/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
Claimant Count Change (GB, 09:30 GMT)
Core CPI (YoY) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
German 10-Year Bund Auction (GER, 10:30 GMT)
BoE Gov King Speaks + BoE Inflation Report (GB, 10:30 GMT)
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) + Building Permits + Housing Starts (U.S., 13:30 GMT)
Industrial Production (MoM) (U.S., 14:15 GMT)
ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 15:00 GMT)
FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
The Department of Labor revealed that consumer prices in U.S were flat in April compared to the previous month. While the Commerce Department said that U.S retail sales edged up by 0.1 percent in April following a revised 0.7 percent increase in March and the business inventories rose by 0.3 percent in March following a 0.6 percent increase ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”"
- Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro
Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
USD
"There’s a lot of slack in the economy"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday.
GBP
"March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...
Title:
YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 15/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· French GDP (QoQ) (FRA, 6:30 GMT)
· German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 7:00 GMT)
· French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (FRA, 7:45 GMT)
· Trade Balance (GB, 9:30 GMT)
· ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· German ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER, 10:00 GMT)
· GDP (QoQ) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· Core CPI (YoY) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· Retail Sales (MoM) U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (U.S., 14:00 GMT)
Foreign direct investment in China fell for a sixth month in April, as faltering global growth and renewed turmoil in financial markets dented company spending in Asia’s biggest economy. Inbound investment ...
Title:
Another mixed week for the superpower…
Ahead of the U.S elections we watch another mixed week be drown regarding the current economical conjuncture of the world`s leading economy with a worsened and widened trade deficit along with better labor and confidence data, yet the recovery is on a slow gradual pace and accordingly a full efficient healing is still far from being witnessed.
In fact throughout the week we watched mixed sentiments getting spread as on one hand the superpower`s trade gap widened more than forecasted on higher imports and on the other hand the country`s jobless claims cheerfully and unexpectedly declined faintly to confirm once again that the labor conditions are improving gradually but remain far from a full recovery and that the gap between imports and exports continue on being immense.
Actually the U.S ...
Title:
Asia ends a week of critical data that signals possible move on policies
Last week saw the release of important Asian data that should be taken in consideration, especially amid the global tension over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis that hindered many economies. Australia, China and Japan released critical data that might be influential on policy decisions in the coming period.
The first two days of the week were focused on the Australian economy the start was with business conditions and confidence that slowed in April, as well as retail sales that rebounded and recorded a rise in March easing some of the tension. Seasonally adjusted sales increased 0.9% from previous of 0.2%. At the same time the retail sales excluding inflation recorded 1.8% rise from previous of 0.4% in first quarter.
Moreover, Australia recorded a widened trade balance in March, the ...
Title:
Euro near 3-1/2-month low vs dollar on Greek uncertainty
The euro slid to a 3-1/2-month low in volatile trade on Friday as political uncertainty in Greece and hefty losses disclosed by U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase spurred risk aversion.
The euro has dropped against the dollar in eight of 10 sessions for a cumulative 2.4 percent decline, hit by the turmoil in Greece. Inconclusive election results last Sunday threw the country into political disarray and raised the risk that it could exit the euro zone and the European Union.
Greek Socialist party leader Evangelos Venizelos on Friday said he was unable to form a government, sending the country hurtling toward a new vote.
"If the same thing happens in the second round and you do not get a government in Greece, we think that will weigh on the euro," said Tom Higgins, global macro strategist at ...
Title:
Oil dips as China data outweighs upbeat U.S. consumers
Oil fell on Friday and posted a second straight weekly loss as pressure from weak industrial growth in China countered news that U.S. consumer confidence hit a four-year high.
Brent crude's 6.2 percent slide in the past two weeks was the biggest two-week percentage loss since December 16. U.S. crude fell 8.4 percent the past two weeks, its largest since September 30.
Crude prices felt early pressure from data showing China's industrial production in April grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years.
The report followed disappointing trade numbers released on Thursday, indicating China's economy is showing vulnerability to a global slowdown.
Oil pared losses later on news that U.S. consumer sentiment rose early this month to its highest in more than four years, according to the ...
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