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Benefit Of The Strong YenTitle:
Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played"
- Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse
Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March.
USD
"What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar"
- Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA
Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Mario Draghi, the ECB President, insisted on Greece to stay in the Euro bloc during his public speech on Wednesday regarding the possibility of Greece withdrawal from the Eurozone. Nevertheless, according to him, the ECB will stick to its anti-inflation mandate. The ECB President's comments came after Irish and Belgian central banks reported that Greek exit would not be disastrous for the Eurozone.
USD
Jobless claims in the U.S. didn't live up to the expectations that it will decrease by 5K and remained unchanged, at 370K level, in the week from 6th to 12th of May. Amount of people on rolling unemployment claims increased by around 18K while the number of people on prolonged payments decreased by around 45K. 31 out of 52 states or territory's reported ...
Title:
Strong Germany GDP supports fragile eur
The euro held above a four-month low on Tuesday after German economic growth beat expectations, although gains could prove fleeting as the political stalemate in Greece stokes fears that Athens may renege on bailout pledges and exit the currency bloc.
European powerhouse Germany saw its economy expand in the first quarter at a robust clip of 0.5 percent, shaking off any fears of a recession. But a survey of German analyst and investor sentiment fell sharply in May, while GDP in France flatlined and Italy contracted sharply.
Overall, much of the euro zone was still struggling with a slowdown, putting pressure on the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy to support the economy.
That is likely to see bears take a stronger grip of the euro. Also, concerns about slowing Chinese and ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
Title:
Stocks, euro advance on Europe, jobs data
Global stocks advanced for the first time in seven sessions on Thursday on relatively encouraging U.S. jobs data and improved investor sentiment regarding Europe's festering debt crisis.
U.S. and European equity markets rose after data showed U.S. claims for unemployment benefits edged lower last week, a sign of comfort after April's weak employment growth was perceived as a harbinger of a worsening U.S. labor market.
Investors also used a recent streak of declines to buy beaten-down assets, lifting the euro against the dollar for the first time in nine sessions and snapping a six-day losing streak for the Dow Jones industrial average.
"You are seeing traders and investors come into some of these very oversold sectors and buying on the dips. Then suddenly, the people who are scared ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
Title:
All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
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BOJ signals pause in easing; keeps warning vs. FX
(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan's monetary easing in April took into account risks from Europe's simmering debt woes, board member Sayuri Shirai said, signalling that the central bank prefers to stand pat for now to examine the impact of its action on the economy.
The central bank boosted asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($125 billion) on April 27, its second monetary easing in just over two months, in a move seen aimed at convincing impatient politicians and investors of its resolve to end deflation that has plagued Japan for more than a decade.
But French and Greek elections at the weekend cast fresh doubts on how much progress Europe can make in resolving its debt problems, hurting global stocks and pushing up the yen, Shirai told reporters after meeting with business leaders in Akita, ...
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