Below Parity Over The Rest

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played" - Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March. USD "What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar" - Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013" - Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday. USD "Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens" - Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55. GBP Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...

Central Banks' to the Rescue? The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control). The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone" However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”" - Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday. USD "There’s a lot of slack in the economy" - Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday. GBP "March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Investors battered European stocks, dumped the bonds of Spain and Italy, and bid the euro down against the dollar Monday after the collapse of weekend coalition talks in Greece edged that country closer to an exit from the euro zone. USD Retail sales in the U.S. rose in April at the slowest pace of the year, showing unseasonably mild weather and pre-Easter shopping may have pulled consumers to stores the prior month. GBP Governor Mervyn King looks set to leave the door open to more support for the struggling economy when he presents the Bank of England's new economic outlook on Wednesday, which is likely to show a tricky mix of lower growth and higher inflation ahead. CHF Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday on concern Greece will exit the Eurozone. ...

Forex News and Events: The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...

USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes USD is mostly softer as sentiment stabilizes and amid slightly weaker US economic data. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 1k to 367k (cons. 368k) from an upwardly revised 368k (prior 365k). The 4-week moving average in initial claims fell for the first time in 5 weeks with a drop of -5.3k indicating marginal improvement in labor. The March trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of -$51.8B (cons. -50.0B, prior -45.4B) as imports jumped 5.2% – the largest increase in over a year. European bourses are currently trading in positive territory, US stock futures are suggesting upside at the open, and UST yields are higher across the curve indicating a better risk environment today. The dollar index is lower and testing the 80.00 figure as ...

It's one step forward and two steps back for risk at the moment. On the one hand we heard yesterday that Greece was 'more than likely' to receive its next aid tranche in order to cover a bond redemption due later this month, yet the political deadlock from Sunday's election is now entering its fourth day. The chances are that Greece will have to go back to the polls next month (at the cost of about EU 18mn) and the financial markets are concerned that the electorate will choose an anti-austerity party as its first choice. The choice is up to the Greeks However, Greece may not like austerity, but it also wants to remain in the Eurozone. EU officials, particularly in Germany, have broken the taboo that no one can leave the Eurozone and started to publically announce that Greece has to ...

The new Euro-zone politics will dominate the first part of the week and, in all probability, the week as a whole. The Euro-zone is heading for catastrophe if policies are unchanged and electorates are relentless in demanding change as governments are ousted across Europe. Increased political risk will result in a weaker Euro. Any shift in strategy will, initially at least, mean a weaker Euro. The critical EUR/USD 1.30 support zone could provide a stern test for bears, but the Euro is likely to break lower and threaten 2012 lows. Confirmation of Hollande’s victory in France marks the end of the Merkel-Sarkozy dominance at the political heart of Europe. In reality, Germany was dominating the agenda, certainly in the key crisis period at the end of 2011, but the illusion of a key alliance ...