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Below It On The Monthly ChartTitle:
Doubts over EU summit send shares, euro lower
(Reuters) - World shares fell and Germany sold two-year bonds paying virtually no interest on Wednesday as investors shunned riskier assets, doubting that any new measures to tackle the euro zone debt crisis would emerge from a European leaders summit.
Concerns the latest EU summit could be a failure sent the euro to a 21-month low, put an end to a rally in European equities, and sent yields on Spanish and Italian bonds higher.
But investors bid strongly at an auction of safe-haven two-year German government bonds resulting in a yield of just 0.07 percent, while the dollar, measured against other major currencies .DXY hit a high not seen since September 2010.
The leaders are expected to discuss boosting growth at their meeting later on Wednesday and the idea of a joint euro zone bond. ...
Title:
Fitch Fires Another Round
Forex News and Events:
Fitch downgraded Japan by two notches yesterday afternoon from AA to A+ with outlook negative. The agency justified the credit rating cuts by saying that the Japanese government isn’t reactive enough in tackling its “high and rising public debt ratios”. The move came in a few hours after the OECD urged Japan to prioritize the implementation of a fiscal consolidation plan, as debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 200 percent, and budget deficits are forecast at 10 percent of GDP for the current year. PM Yoshihiko Noda has staked his political career on a law to increase sales tax to 10% with the goal of offsetting rising social security costs mainly due to the fast ageing of the population. But the opposition that controls the upper house is refusing to negotiate and is ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/15/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Investors battered European stocks, dumped the bonds of Spain and Italy, and bid the euro down against the dollar Monday after the collapse of weekend coalition talks in Greece edged that country closer to an exit from the euro zone.
USD
Retail sales in the U.S. rose in April at the slowest pace of the year, showing unseasonably mild weather and pre-Easter shopping may have pulled consumers to stores the prior month.
GBP
Governor Mervyn King looks set to leave the door open to more support for the struggling economy when he presents the Bank of England's new economic outlook on Wednesday, which is likely to show a tricky mix of lower growth and higher inflation ahead.
CHF
Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday on concern Greece will exit the Eurozone.
...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/14/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Industrial production in the 17 countries that use the euro fell unexpectedly in March, leaving little doubt the region contracted for a second straight quarter in the first three months of the year and returned to recession, data by Eurostat showed Monday.
USD
Stocks fell, commodities declined to their cheapest level this year and the euro weakened to a three- month low on concern that Greece will exit the single European currency and after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost a state election.
GBP
The government, and many economists, say the U.K.'s austerity plan has succeeded in reassuring financial markets that the government is focused on wrestling down the country's debt, which had ballooned to the highest levels since World War II. As a ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
Title:
All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
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