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Bearish Channel And Also On The ResistanceTitle:
Fitch Fires Another Round
Forex News and Events:
Fitch downgraded Japan by two notches yesterday afternoon from AA to A+ with outlook negative. The agency justified the credit rating cuts by saying that the Japanese government isn’t reactive enough in tackling its “high and rising public debt ratios”. The move came in a few hours after the OECD urged Japan to prioritize the implementation of a fiscal consolidation plan, as debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 200 percent, and budget deficits are forecast at 10 percent of GDP for the current year. PM Yoshihiko Noda has staked his political career on a law to increase sales tax to 10% with the goal of offsetting rising social security costs mainly due to the fast ageing of the population. But the opposition that controls the upper house is refusing to negotiate and is ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The rally is mostly technically driven after we became quite oversold last week."
- Raimund Saxinger, a fund manager at Trust Investment GmbH
European stocks rose by the most in a month on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.91 per cent to 244.76. Germany’s DAX Index edged higher 1.65 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index added 1.88 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.86 per cent to 5,403.28
USD
"People are becoming more confident about job prospects and about taking on mortgages."
- Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities Inc.
U.S. existing home sales rose in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million from 4.47 million in March, said the National Association of Realtors.
GBP
"These figures give the Monetary Policy Committee ...
Title:
The Endgame of the Greek Crisis
Forex News and Events:
It has taken two-and-a-half years, and nearly USD 300bn of IMF/EU funds for markets to finally weigh in a more probable than not exit of the debt-laden country. Greece’s EMU exit is imminent for the second time in the last six months. Surprisingly though, the trigger for the recent gloomy expectations for Greece was not exclusively of an economic nature but also politics. During May 6 elections, the Greeks expressed their unwillingness to abide by the agreed-upon austerity measures. It wouldn’t have been a very dangerous position had Greece been solvent, but regardless of EU officials’ reassurance of continued help for Greece throughout the process, the country would run out of funds for the next installments due end of June and early July. In addition to markets ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 22/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Inevitably there is going to be an element of bargain hunting as investors look to top up their holdings on the basis of slightly lower prices"
- Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers
European stocks edged higher on Monday on China’s pledge to boost growth.
USD
"Equity prices have gotten oversold"
- Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC
U.S. equity market edged higher on Monday on China stimulus hopes and after German and French officials said they would cooperate to keep Greece in the monetary union.
GBP
"Obviously, as the euro depreciates, the U.K. gets slightly more expensive"
- Miles Shipside, Rightmove commercial director
U.K. national house prices stagnated in March, announced the ...
Title:
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair on May 21th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/JPY pair :
The pair USD/JPY has continued its bearish movement last friday and the breakout of 79.26 gave us a new sell signal.
The pair is currently testing a pullback on this level and is also testing the upper band of its bearish channel (black lines).
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still taking support on its bearish slant (purple line).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 79.86 is resistance.
The breakout of 79 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 78.50 and 78.
In case of return above 79.86, we will be neutral between this level and 80.08.
See the previous analysis of the USD/JPY pair of May 18th, 2012
USD/JPY Analysis
Title:
Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 18th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The gold has continued its rebound and is currently testing a pullback on the resistance at 1577 points and also on the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
Indicators are globaly bearish.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1577 points is resistance.
A return below 1550 points will comfort our bearish feeling.
The breakout of 1520 will both a new sell signal and open the way towards 1500 points.
In case of return above 1577 points, we will wait the breakout of 1600 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 17th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
Title:
Holiday in Europe Keeps Trading Subdued
Forex News and Events:
While the news flow emanating from Europe has slowed, proving a temporary respite from risky assets, the pressure on Greek banks is growing. After market chatter and media reports, the ECB confirmed that some Greek banks had turned to the Bank of Greece for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) pending recapitalization. The recapitalization that was to be finalized 'soon', and in theory would allow troubled Greek banks to return to normal ECB funding channels. However, with the other story that massive deposits are being withdrawn from Greek banks (€700bn ins May 6th election) circulating, the erosion of core capital means the prospects of these institution quickly returning to ECB seem unlikely. The recent ECB 3 year LTRO operation was an attempt to build a firewall ...
Title:
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 17th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has rebounded yesterday on the support at 0.99 and also on the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
The pair got back into its falling wedge.
Indicators are globaly bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0050 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.98.
In case of return above 1.0050, we will wait the breakout of 1.0125 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 16th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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