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Bear Market In DecemberTitle:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played"
- Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse
Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March.
USD
"What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar"
- Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA
Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...
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Gold jumps 2.6 percent after slump; dead-cat bounce?
Gold rallied more than 2.6 percent on Thursday, its largest one-day gain since late January, as technical buy signals and new signs of a sluggish U.S. economy more than offset deepening despair over the euro zone.
After flirting with a bear market on Wednesday, down more than 20 percent from its September record, bullion rallied early after Philadelphia Federal Reserve data showed a contraction in factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region that rekindled some hope the Fed would plough more money into the system to stimulate the economy, traders said.
Technical buying also fueled gains after gold had nearly hit a key December low, trading just shy of key technical long-term support at the 100-week moving average of $1,515 per oz.
But with the euro and U.S. stocks in decline and ...
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Gold pares losses after bear market test, Greece focus
Gold sank to a 2012 low on Wednesday before paring losses in choppy trade, as traders were torn between hope that France and Germany would work together to keep the Euro zone intact and new signs of stress in the Greek banking sector.
Bullion briefly crossed into bear market territory, down 20 percent from its record last September, as intensifying fears a Greek exit from the euro zone would worsen the debt crisis gripped financial markets earlier in the day.
Prices later recouped most of their losses following a meeting between new French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at which they pledged to forge a joint approach for an EU summit next month. That eased concerns of a spat that could worsen the euro zone crisis.
During the U.S. session, gold prices ...
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Oil up on positive German data
Brent crude oil edged up on Tuesday on as the euro zone narrowly avoided recession and as better-than-forecast German first-quarter GDP data raised hopes that Germany would steer the way through the European debt crisis.
The euro zone economy stagnated with zero growth, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday, going against expectations of a recession.
The results were more positive than forecast, boosting riskier assets, and counterbalancing Greek political woes and a strengthening dollar. However, analysts believe the downward trend will ultimately prevail.
Brent crude rose by 53 cents to $112.10 a barrel by 1454 GMT and erasing the previous session's losses, when prices slid to $110.04, the lowest intraday price since January 25.
U.S. crude fell 3 cents to $94.75 a ...
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Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
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Gold falls to 4-1/2 month low on Greece risks
Gold dropped to its lowest since late December as the euro sank against the U.S. dollar on worries that a worsening debt crisis in Greece could spill over into its neighbors and threaten the existence of the single currency.
But lower bullion prices triggered a flurry of activity in the physical market, with purchases from jewelers in top consumer India and also Southeast Asia keeping premiums for gold bars steady at $1.20 to London prices in Singapore.
Although euro zone finance ministers have dismissed talk of Greece leaving the euro zone as "propaganda and nonsense", they urged the debt-ridden country to respect the terms of the bailout program agreed with the EU and the International Monetary Fund.
Gold was down $3.80 an ounce at $1,552.85 by 02:20 a.m. EDT (0620 GMT) after hitting ...
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EUR/USD Hits 4-Month Low
The euro continued to tumble throughout yesterday's trading session as investors grew more concerned regarding the impact of a possible new Greek election next month. The EUR/USD fell close to 70 pips during European trading, reaching as low as 1.2829. Today, traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant market events. At 9:00 GMT, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure may be able to help the euro recover some of its recent losses if it comes in above analyst forecasts. In addition, the US Core CPI, Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures, all scheduled for 12:30 GMT, could lead to market volatility for USD pairs. Should any of the news come in above expectations, the greenback could move up against the JPY.
Economic News
USD - US Retail Sales Data Set to ...
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Brent falls towards $111 on Greece jitters
Brent crude futures fell towards $111 a barrel on Tuesday as Greece's political and economic turmoil deepened and worries that the debt-laden country could leave the euro zone sparked a sell-off in dollar-denominated commodities.
Brent prices slid for a fourth consecutive day, hammered by fears of a slowdown in the global economy with European data due on Tuesday expected to show the region slipping back into a second recession in just three years.
China's decision to loosen monetary policy over the weekend also fed fears that the global economy is suffering as the crisis worsens, causing investors to flee from riskier assets and weighing on copper, gold and the euro.
Brent crude slipped 49 cents to $111.08 a barrel by 0452 GMT after sliding to $110.04 on Monday, its lowest intraday ...
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Oil falls as Greece, China feed economic worry
Oil prices fell on Monday as Greece's inability to form a coalition government and concerns about a slowing Chinese economy fed worries about the outlook for petroleum demand.
Greece's turmoil triggered selling in dollar-denominated copper and gold, sending a benchmark commodities index to a 19-month low, while pressuring the euro to a four-month low against the dollar and weighing on the stock market.
Hedge funds and large speculators made the biggest-ever cuts in their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 8, according to government data released on Friday, adding to this week's bearish sentiment.
Crude futures extended losses that, in the two weeks ending on Friday, left Brent crude down 6.2 percent and U.S. crude off 8.4 percent.
"The situation in ...
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