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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German bunds rose on worries that European leaders will struggle to resolve the euro zone debt crisis during tonight's European summit. David Schnautz of Commerzbank AG in London thinks that Europe is unlikely to solve key topics and will probably disappoint the market. The 5-year bund lost 5 bp to 0.47 percent at 10:49 GMT after tumbling to 0.461 percent, the lowest since 1990, when Bloomberg began gathering data.
USD
Crude oil futures declined in Asian session on Wednesday as Iran is ready to invite nuclear inspectors, the move that may ease oil import sanctions. Light, sweet crude oil futures for July delivery traded at 91.27 US Dollars per barrel, retreating by 0.63% from the last session's high of 91.72 US Dollars per barrel.
GBP
Today the minutes of the ...
Title:
Euro Tanks as Greece Exit Considered More Likely
Euro is tanking today, heading lower as speculation about a Greek exit of the eurozone increases. Indeed, some think that there is a real threat for Greek withdrawal — and that such a withdrawal could prompt a domino effect that includes Spain and Italy later. Worries about what’s next for the eurozone are sending the 17-nation currency down across the board.
Recently, former Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos insisted that a Greek withdrawal from the eurozone is a very real threat, even as he tried to encourage Greek citizens to accept painful austerity measures. Concerns that Greece will be unable to remain in the eurozone are on the rise. Worries are triggering fears of a domino effect as well. Once the first country leaves the eurozone, it becomes easier for other countries to bail ...
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Risky trade getting hammered
Higher yielders remained under pressure as uncertainty continues to surround markets. The lack of assurance of an Imperative action on Greece from the euro leaders in their informal summit today makes things further vague for the destiny of the risky trade. While markets lack a conclusive expectation for the outcome of the summit majors look skeptical around key support levels.
During a teleconference earlier today, the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG); which consists of the officials preparing the meetings of finance minister, and form the board of the ESF as well, agreed that euro zone countries must consider and prepare for the consequences of a Greece exit. The move could have further negative impact on the common currency.
While Later today, the finance ministers are expected to unveil ...
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Will Greece Leave or Not?
We have heard conflicting information about Greece over the last 24 hours: first we heard that Greece was making plans to leave the Eurozone from former Prime Minister Papademos, which was denied. Then this morning reports from a German newspaper suggested that the ECB had set up a task force (tucked away in a bunker) working on the potential fallout from a Greek exit. It's likely that we will get these conflicting headlines between now and the end of the EU summit, which starts this evening at 1800 BST.
The markets' seemed to like the idea of an Avengers - style ECB working to combat the negative effects if Athens goes to the wall, and the euro bounced from its lowest level since 2010 earlier. But the real test will be the outcome of today's summit. So what should we expect and, ...
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U.S. Stock Futures Slip on CBO Warning, Greek-Exit Fears
Wall Street may stretch the slide that started at the final hour of trading yesterday, as worries grew that Greece will soon leave the shared currency and the Congressional Budget Office warned the economy would tip back into recession if needed budget measures aren`t taken before year-end.
As of 16:12 a.m. in New York time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring June 12 lost 0.65 percent to 12,395, Standard & Poor`s 500 Index futures fell 0.72 percent, and NASDAQ 100 futures decreased 0.77 percent to 2,515.50.
The CBO yesterday warned the U.S. economy would be pulled back into recession next year if Congress fails to address a so-called "fiscal cliff" - a series of policies set to take effect in January that would take more than $500 billion out of the economy in 2013 alone.
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Gazprom reviews Shtokman line-up
(Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said it is reconsidering the composition of the consortium to develop the Shtokman offshore gas with a decision expected next month, further heightening uncertainty over the project's future.
"The project is being reviewed at the moment. A decision on members and the scheme is expected in June," Vitaly Markelov, Gazprom's deputy CEO, told a briefing on Wednesday.
Gazprom sources said that there could be a departure from Shtokman, where the Russian gas giant has partnered with Statoil (STL.OL) of Norway and Total (TOTF.PA) of France.
Total owns 25 percent, Statoil 24 percent and Gazprom the remainder of Shtokman, one of the world's largest gas fields with reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters located 550 kilometers (340 miles) offshore in the ...
Title:
Fitch Fires Another Round
Forex News and Events:
Fitch downgraded Japan by two notches yesterday afternoon from AA to A+ with outlook negative. The agency justified the credit rating cuts by saying that the Japanese government isn’t reactive enough in tackling its “high and rising public debt ratios”. The move came in a few hours after the OECD urged Japan to prioritize the implementation of a fiscal consolidation plan, as debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 200 percent, and budget deficits are forecast at 10 percent of GDP for the current year. PM Yoshihiko Noda has staked his political career on a law to increase sales tax to 10% with the goal of offsetting rising social security costs mainly due to the fast ageing of the population. But the opposition that controls the upper house is refusing to negotiate and is ...
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European Market Update : 23/05/2012
Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works
Economic Data
(GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior
(NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior
(SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e
(EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior
(IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996))
(ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e
(TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior
(UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e
(UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The rally is mostly technically driven after we became quite oversold last week."
- Raimund Saxinger, a fund manager at Trust Investment GmbH
European stocks rose by the most in a month on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.91 per cent to 244.76. Germany’s DAX Index edged higher 1.65 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index added 1.88 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.86 per cent to 5,403.28
USD
"People are becoming more confident about job prospects and about taking on mortgages."
- Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities Inc.
U.S. existing home sales rose in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million from 4.47 million in March, said the National Association of Realtors.
GBP
"These figures give the Monetary Policy Committee ...
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