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Banks Of The Eurozone Will NotTitle:
Will Greece Leave or Not?
We have heard conflicting information about Greece over the last 24 hours: first we heard that Greece was making plans to leave the Eurozone from former Prime Minister Papademos, which was denied. Then this morning reports from a German newspaper suggested that the ECB had set up a task force (tucked away in a bunker) working on the potential fallout from a Greek exit. It's likely that we will get these conflicting headlines between now and the end of the EU summit, which starts this evening at 1800 BST.
The markets' seemed to like the idea of an Avengers - style ECB working to combat the negative effects if Athens goes to the wall, and the euro bounced from its lowest level since 2010 earlier. But the real test will be the outcome of today's summit. So what should we expect and, ...
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Waiting for the EU Summit
Trading in the London Session was choppy with the market unwilling to take any clear direction as we lead up to tomorrow's informal EU summit. The market toyed with the idea of Eurobonds (they like that idea and risk assets may rally tomorrow on any signs they are on the horizon.) Then they focused on the prospect of a showdown between Germany and France, Europe's de facto leaders, which caused a mild sell off. Right now the chances of the latter happening are more likely especially since Merkel is unlikely to be re-elected next year if she agrees to Eurobonds (read Germany guaranteeing the bulk of Europe's debt), which would never fly with German voters.
Although the EU President said that everything is on the table for discussion tomorrow, he also said that no concrete measures will be ...
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The Endgame of the Greek Crisis
Forex News and Events:
It has taken two-and-a-half years, and nearly USD 300bn of IMF/EU funds for markets to finally weigh in a more probable than not exit of the debt-laden country. Greece’s EMU exit is imminent for the second time in the last six months. Surprisingly though, the trigger for the recent gloomy expectations for Greece was not exclusively of an economic nature but also politics. During May 6 elections, the Greeks expressed their unwillingness to abide by the agreed-upon austerity measures. It wouldn’t have been a very dangerous position had Greece been solvent, but regardless of EU officials’ reassurance of continued help for Greece throughout the process, the country would run out of funds for the next installments due end of June and early July. In addition to markets ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 22/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· CPI (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
· BOE Inflation Letter (GB, Tentative)
· Existing Home Sales (U.S., 15 :00 GMT)
The U.S. labor market is set to strengthen this year, a survey published by the National Association for Business Economics said Monday. The survey of 54 economists said non-farm payroll increases will average 188,000 per month this year, up from the prior projection of 170,000. The jobless rate is expected to fall to 8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2012.
Japan’s foreign investments and assets grew to the second-highest level on record as companies used the high yen to make acquisitions abroad, a trend that may help them cope with stagnant demand at home. Investments abroad grew 3.3 percent to 582 trillion yen ($7. ...
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Is Facebook Weighing on the Euro or is the Euro Weighing on Facebook?
It has been a lacklustre day post the G8 meeting at the weekend (yawn), the drop in Mark Zuckerberg's net worth seems to be more of a talking point than the continuing Eurozone crisis. But, the Eurozone banking index gives it all away. Bankia, Santander and the usual Spanish suspects all turned lower as we headed into London's lunchtime, which dragged the overall European banking sector down to its lowest level since November 2011. Within a matter of hours EURUSD followed suit and is making fresh lows of the day at 1.2730 (at the time of writing).
Official EU disappointment
Although a temporary bottom may be in place at 1.2624 in EURUSD, the G8 summit highlighted a couple of things that remain negative for the single currency: 1, how divided the Eurozone (and the world) is about how to ...
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US Dollar Index Starts Week Stronger
US dollar index is starting out another week stronger, thanks in large part to difficulties plaguing the eurozone. While the Facebook IPO last week distracted Forex traders and investors from the crisis in the eurozone for a short period of time, focus is back on Europe, and what’s happening (or not happening).
Concerns about the eurozone continue to make the US dollar attractive as a safe haven. Even as concerns about Greece’s exit from the eurozone grow, the US dollar remains backed by the world’s most stable taxpayer base. On top of that, there is an expectation that other central banks — especially the ECB and the BOE — are more likely to ease monetary policies before the Federal Reserve does.
That said, there is still a chance that the Fed, led by Ben Bernanke, will engage in ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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Asian Market Update : 21/05/2012
Equities and risky FX bounce after G8 commitment to Greece and China hints of easing
Economic Data
(JP) JAPAN MAR ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: -0.3% V -0.1%E (3rd consecutive decline)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR NET MIGRATION: -850 V 230 PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.7% V 5.3% PRIOR
(TH) THAILAND Q1 GDP Q/Q: 11.0% V 10.0%E; Y/Y: +0.3% V -0.5%E
(UK) UK MAY RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICE M/M: 0.0% V 2.9% PRIOR (4-month low); Y/Y: 2.0% V 3.4% PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.7%
S&P/ASX +0.3%
Kospi +0.9%
Shanghai Composite +0.2%
Hang Seng -0.1%
Jun S&P Futures +0.5% at 1,297
June gold +0.4% at $1,599/oz
June Crude +0.5% at $91.90
Overview/Top Headlines
Asian equity markets, commodities, and risk-on FX opened the new week ...
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Asia Session: Wen Steals The Spotlight From The G8 Summit
The dollar and the yen were lower across the board as Chinese Premier Wen spurred hopes of more growth stimulating measures from Beijing. At the same time, equity markets were lifted by the risk-on sentiment, but gains were limited by lingering fears about a possible Greek exit from the euro.
Furthermore, the G8 summit over the weekend failed to provide any guidance for investors, with those in attendance simply repeating well used comments about keeping the Eurozone intact and ensuring Greece doesn’t fall off a cliff. It now appears the countries in attendance are renewing calls for the larger and healthier Eurozone nations, like Germany, to assist their struggling neighbour countries, which comes at a time when debt markets appear to be questioning the health of Italy and Spain. Yet, ...
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