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Banking Sector In EuropeTitle:
Economic Data Analysis
Economic Data Analysis
A Tale of Two Summits
Market volatility linked to rising uncertainty over Euro area crisis response.
Sunday's summit to be supplemented with second on Wednesday. No sign of agreement and significant risks of postsummit market disappointment.
Euro area PMI's to show weakening in real activity, further declines threaten recession.
US Q3 GDP to post strongest outturn in a year. Consumption dominant driver.
Movements in equity, f/x and bond markets appear to have given up all pretence of looking beyond the immediate outlook for the Euro area crisis. This has resulted in significant volatility as Euro area officials have exhibited their characteristic market insensitivity ahead of Sunday's summit with manifold rumours of what may (or more often, may not) ...
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Europe Ahead: Eyes are focused on the finance chiefs and confidence figures from Germany
Another session starts today and Europe remains the main focus in the market, as we are getting closer to the October 23 summit this weekend, yet markets are still volatile and the situation is still jittery amid mixed comments and fundamentals from lawmakers and nations, awaiting the results of the finance ministers’ meeting today.
European finance chiefs are to meet in Brussels to set the guidelines to be discussed by leaders during the coming summit; however, leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility and finding an appropriate plan to overcome the debt crisis are the main subjects in the summit.
Yesterday, the European Commission President, Jose Barroso provided a positive outlook in regards to the leader’s meeting, where the President said that European leaders will be ...
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Analysis: Summit complexity tempting funds to stand back
(Reuters) - The sheer complexity of Sunday's critical European Union summit is warning many investors against the durability of knee jerk market reactions and, bewildered by countless "make or break" headlines, many funds are tempted to think beyond the event.
The complexity of the summit's potential fixes for the euro zone's sovereign debt and banking seizure has been debated in the finest of details across news agencies, newspapers and the web on a minute-by-minute basis for the past several weeks.
And for some commentators the outcome is now binary. A solution that ticks all the boxes would deliver a surge of relief to markets, banking and global economic confidence at large. Failure would spell disaster, the end of the euro in its current form, double-dip world recession or even ...
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Currencies are fluctuating heavily amid mixed sentiment
Currencies markets are very volatile and fluctuating heavily amid the mixed sentiment seen in the market, as we can see the euro rebounded after reaching the lowest today, affected by comments from the European Union and the International Monetary funds regarding Greece obtaining the next tranche of 2010’s bailout package as soon as possible.
More comments were made today, where the European Commission President, Jose Barroso said that the European leaders will be able to reach an agreement this weekend to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility in attempts to fight the debt crisis and prevent it from expanding into larger economies within the zone, which supported a wave of optimism to replace the general pessimism seen earlier.
The European Financial Stability Facility is ...
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Focus on banks
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
Although Eurozone officials have repeatedly warned over the last 72 hours that the weekend is unlikely to deliver a cure-all for the sovereign crisis, there is a heightened sense of urgency after emergency talks yesterday between French President Sarkozy, German Chancellor Merkel and the heads of the IMF and ECB. In particular, the Financial Times reported that the size of the European bank recapitalization plan is likely to be only EUR70-90 bn or less, and that banks would be given up to 9 months to raise the capital. We note that this would likely disappoint market expectations, being too small in scale and too slow in delivery. France is of particular interest in this respect due to its higher banking risks, and multiple news reports ...
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Risk aversion sends assets down broadly pre-EU Summit
European stock index futures fell on Thursday, as riskier assets across the board slumped with investors growing wary about taking risks ahead of a key European leaders' summit on Sunday.
The euro dipped as European policymakers struggled to reach consensus on the region's sovereign debt crisis, and concerns about the global economy hit industrial metals such as copper and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.
The European stock index futures was down 1.3 percent, while futures for Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 were also down more than 1 percent and financial spreadbetters called the FTSE 100 .FTSE to open as much as 1.2 percent lower. .EU .L
On Thursday, risk aversion prompted investors to trim cross-yen pairs, pushing the Aussie down 0.7 percent against the ...
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The Fed's Beige Book Affirms The U.S Economy Have Maintained Growth
The Fed's Beige Book Affirms The U.S Economy Have Maintained Growth, But With More Doubts Over The Outlook
The Federal Reserve System released the Beige Book today to show economic conditions around twelve Federal Districts and overall economic activity continued to expand in September, despite that many Districts saw modest or slight growth besides for weaker or less clear outlooks for business conditions.
The Beige Book underscored that economy maintained growth in the past period, but still the outlook remains full of doubts, the thing that reignited fears of slipping into a another economic recession, and flashed back the importance of having several policy tools in hands if the economic growth falters significantly.
The report showed that manufacturing activities maintained ...
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World socks and euro advance on EU rescue hopes
(Reuters) - European stocks and the euro rose on Wednesday on optimism that policymakers will take major steps at a summit this weekend to tackle the festering debt crisis, offsetting the market impact of a cut in Spain's sovereign credit rating.
German Bund futures were lower as safe-haven government bonds were sold off on a report in Britain's Guardian newspaper that France and Germany had agreed on a deal to increase the euro zone bailout fund's firepower fivefold.
The reported agreement was later denied by two senior European Union officials.
Nevertheless, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was up 1 percent while world stocks as measured by the MSCI index .MIWD00000PUS were up 0.85 percent.
"It's interesting that despite the denial the market still wants to go ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 19/10/2011
EUR/USD
The sentiment remained downbeat and the fear is still dominant after the German comments and Moody’s warning to France which further weakened the euro and sent the EUR/USD to the downside.
On Tuesday investors remained wary over the outlook with the weaker than expected Chinese growth triggering fears over the outlook alongside the slump in European confidence.
We can still expect more volatility for the pair and downside pressure on the euro ahead of the summit next Sunday, especially after Moody’s warned France that it is at risk from increasing its support to bailouts and debt laden nations and said it might change its stable outlook on the French “Aaa” rating to negative, a signal that France might be pressured in the coming period whether in making moves or in extending its ...
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