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The Weekly Bottom Line : 13/04/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
A narrowing trade deficit and larger than expected inventory accumulation in February suggests Q1 growth will be closer to 2.5-3.0% than our previous forecast for 1.7%.
That being said, this does not change our underlying outlook. The higher print on GDP reflects an inventory swing and improved trade balance due to weak imports. In contrast, domestic demand still appears set to post a shallow 2% gain.
In order for the U.S. economy to generate sustained growth at the 3% level, we will need to see a much healthier job market that is capable of generating widespread growth in real incomes.
Canada
In two survey releases, the Bank of Canada detailed that businesses are more upbeat about their sales' prospects and ...
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Stocks extend rally in wake of ECB; yen slips
(Reuters) - European and Asian stocks climbed on Friday as appetite for risky assets continued to improve following the European Central Bank's huge cash injection, while the yen hit a nine-month low versus the dollar and Japanese importers sold yen.
The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was up 0.2 percent in early trade, led by a rally in banking shares such as Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA).
"The ECB's action does appear to have made a significant difference and people are more relaxed now. The fact that Italian bond yields have been on a decline in recent days is certainly a helpful factor," said Keith Bowman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The ECB's half a trillion euros in cheap, 3-year loans added to the banking system this week has ...
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Oil gains on China data, Iran tension
Firm Chinese economic data and brewing tension between Iran and the West pushed oil above $112 a barrel on Wednesday, putting it on track for its highest close in three weeks.
Brent crude was up $1.39 at $112.37 by 1415 GMT, heading for its highest close since Jan 11. U.S. crude was up 53 cents at $99.01.
"The market is confined to a range between $110.50 and $112.50 basis for front month Brent but the cold weather in north west Europe and continuing tension over Iran makes it likely that any break will be to the upside," said Christopher Bellew at Jefferies Bache.
China's official Purchasing Managers' Index showed the manufacturing sector in the world's largest energy consumer expanded modestly in January, with the index reading inching up to 50.5 from 50.3 in December, above a ...
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Oil slips, IMF optimism fades, demand outlook weak
Oil retreated on Wednesday as optimism spurred by talk the IMF may do more to help resolve the European debt crisis proved shortlived, with a gloomy demand outlook pressuring prices.
Front-month Brent crude was down 40 cents at $111.13 a barrel by 1432 GMT, after touching an intraday peak of
$112.20. U.S. oil gained 46 cents $101.17 a barrel.
Brent futures hovered in backwardation, just above parity, as prompt oil was priced comparably to forward futures, illustrating weaker demand at the front of the curve.
"The market is soft, the Brent curve is flirting with contango and the distillate market is being crushed, with heating oil margins in the United States collapsing," said Seth Kleinman, analyst at Citigroup.
"We've lost a lot demand from warm temperatures."
Oil was supported by ...
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Exclusive: High EU gas prices at odds with big supply surplus
(Reuters) - The European Union's natural gas network is likely be oversupplied by over 10 percent of last year's entire consumption, infuriating customers howling with pain from price hikes.
Europe's oversupply, according to Reuters research and analysts' data, calls into doubt last summer's decision by many utilities to raise their retail gas prices for 2012.
Many gas providers launched long-term, typically two year, fixed price deals that would hold off further increases, but would also not reduce rates should wholesale energy prices drop.
"If excess gas production drives down wholesale costs we would clearly expect this to be reflected in the retail prices customers pay. Suppliers need to play fair by their customers around price changes," Audrey Gallacher, Director of Energy at ...
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Exclusive: High EU gas prices at odds with big supply surplus
(Reuters) - The European Union's natural gas network is likely be oversupplied by over 10 percent of last year's entire consumption, infuriating customers howling with pain from price hikes.
Europe's oversupply, according to Reuters research and analysts' data, calls into doubt last summer's decision by many utilities to raise their retail gas prices for 2012.
Many gas providers launched long-term, typically two year, fixed price deals that would hold off further increases, but would also not reduce rates should wholesale energy prices drop.
"If excess gas production drives down wholesale costs we would clearly expect this to be reflected in the retail prices customers pay. Suppliers need to play fair by their customers around price changes," Audrey Gallacher, Director of Energy at ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 03/10/2011
This was another busy week on the financial markets nourished over the Euro-zone, filled with events concerning the European crisis which strongly influenced sentiment and therefore the market performance. The financial market ended the week with yet another decline and another jump in the levels of tension over a possible Greek default. On a quarter to quarter basis, this quarter was the worst since 2008. Among the worst performance are the German Dax, French CAC and the Hong Kong Hang Seng that all fell around 25%.
German Finance Minister send a clear message to the markets on Saturday; "enough is enough" he said with regards to last week decision to support the EFSF, the ECB and the rest of the world should not expect a penny more into the 211 billion Euros of the recently approved ...
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Oil hovers near 2-year high on cold snap, tighter stocks
(Reuters) - Oil prices climbed toward a two-year high on Thursday as cold weather in the United States boosted demand, slashed stockpiles and contributed to a stronger-than-expected rise in fuel consumption in 2010.
U.S. crude for February rose 25 cents to $90.73 a barrel by 0714 GMT (2:14 a.m. ET), after settling at the highest level since October 2008 on Wednesday. ICE Brent crude traded 14 cents higher at $93.79.
Abnormally cold weather in the United States and Europe have spurred the rally above $90, the latest leg in a more than 40 percent rise from a year low in May.
"Oil has risen as ... inventories have fallen more than expected due to the cold weather in the northern hemisphere," said Serene Lim, an oil analyst at ANZ.
Stockpiles in the world's biggest oil user have fallen by ...
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Oil prices above $90 as crude, gasoline stocks drop
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday to slightly above $90 a barrel, supported by data showing a drop in U.S. oil and gasoline inventories, a winter cold snap in the United States and Europe amid thin trading volumes.
U.S. crude for February climbed 22 cents to $90.04 a barrel by 0750 GMT (2:50 a.m. ET). ICE Brent crude rose 25 cents to $93.45.
American Petroleum Institute data released late on Tuesday in the U.S. showed a large 5.8 million barrel decline in weekly crude stocks, surpassing analyst expectations.
"Big drops in crude oil and gasoline inventories in the API data pushed the oil market to the up. But buying interest around this level, around $90 a barrel, is not so large," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives manager at Japan's Newedge brokerage.
API data also ...
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