Aud/usd Parity The Pair
EUR/USD
The remains in near-term consolidative mode, as 1.2934 proved to be solid support after being retested and holding for now, with brief attempt above 1.3000 barrier, signaling possible corrective action. Improved hourly studies support the notion, however, sustained break above 1.3000 and regain of minimum 1.3050/60 is required to confirm base and trigger fresh recovery. Otherwise, further weakness would be likely scenario, as 4h indicators hold in the negative territory and price action being capped by descending 20 day EMA.
Res: 1.3024, 1.3033, 1.3050, 1.3064
Sup: 1.2965, 1.2934, 1.2900, 1.2861
GBP/USD
Cable bounces off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.5276, following bearish extension below psychological 1.5300 support. Prevailing negative tone on ...
European Market Update
RBA cuts Cash Target Rate by 25bps in a 'surprise' move helps AUD currency test 2-month lows
Notes/Observations
Australia Central Bank (RBA) cuts its Cash Target Rate by 25bps to 2.75%; Not expected and puts rates at a fresh record low level
ECB's Draghi: ECB would be prepared to act again based on incoming data
Portugal hired banks for a 10-year bond via syndication
North Korea threatens to fire on the ongoing joint US-South Korea naval exercises
Japan returned from Golden Week holiday and surged 3% to close over 14K for first time since Jun 2008 (Note: catch up with ECB's rate cut, positive NFP data)
Economic Data
(AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) cuts its Cash Target Rate by 25bps to 2.75%; Not expected and at a fresh record low level
(RU) Russia Apr PMI ...
The pair AUD/USD continues to move over the upper band of its medium term bearish channel (brown line).
The price is back in our neutral zone between 1.02 and 1.0250.
I still advise traders to wait an exit of the range 1.02 / 1.0250 to take positions :
- Only long positions above 1.0250. A break of 1.03 would give a new buy signal for an extension of the rebound towards 1.0350.
- Only short positions below 1.02. A break of 1.0150 would give a new sell signal for an extension of the downtrend towards 1.01.
Attention to the support at 1.0125 (last low before the bounce of the price).
AUD/USD 1h chart
AUD/USD 4h chart
The Week Ahead
Highlights
- Has the EU summit been a damp squib?
- Is global growth reaching a bottom?
- US data and FOMC in focus
- Bank of Canada may not be as hawkish
- Australia and New Zealand CPI to support easing bias
Has the EU summit been a damp squib?
At the time of writing the EU summit was coming to an end in Brussels and there had been no showpiece event like an aid request for Spain. The chief outcome has been an agreement with Europe's leaders that the ECB will eventually be the single body responsible for all banking supervision in the Eurozone. There is no concrete time table to bring in this uber-banking regulator and there was no commitment to finalise either the date of implementation or exactly what the supervision will entail. For example, will large ...
ECB considering rate ceilings, China housing prices continue to climb in majority of cities
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA JUN NEW HOME PRICES M/M: FELL IN 21 OF 70 CITIES V 43 PRIOR; Y/Y: FELL IN 57 OF 70 CITIES V 54 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN JUN FINAL LEADING INDEX: 93.2 V 92.6 PRELIM; COINCIDENT INDEX: 94.1 V 93.8 PRELIM
(TH) THAILAND Q2 GDP Q/Q: 3.3% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 3.1%E
(UK) UK AUG RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -2.4% V -1.7% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline and biggest decline in 8-months); Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.3% PRIOR
(DE) German Finance Ministry monthly report: Economy to grow at a slower pace due to weaker demand in euro area
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUL PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 53.1 V 53.9 PRIOR (7-month low)
(AU) Australia July merchandise imports A$21.4B v A$21.7B prior; Imports of capital ...
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD just validated a return above 1.01, offering a buy signal.
Indicators are globaly bullish.
We continue to advise long positions as far as 1.0050 is support.
The breakout of 1.0150 will give a new buy signal and will open the way towards 1.02.
In case of return below 1.0050, we will wait the breakout of 1.0 to advise short positions.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of June 27th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD continues without any strengh its rebound after have found support on 1.0 last monday.
The pair is currently moving around 1.0050.
Indicators are mitigated.
We are neutral between 1.00 and 1.01.
We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position:
- Long above 1.01. The breakout of 1.02 will give a new buy signal
- Short below 1.00. The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of June 26th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has faked yesterday a breakout of the support at 1.0 and is currently rebounding towards 1.0050.
Indicators are mitigated.
We are neutral between 1.00 and 1.01.
We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position:
- Long above 1.01. The breakout of 1.02 will give a new buy signal
- Short below 1.00. The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of June 25th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair ADU/USD continue its correction and is moving towards 1.0.
Indicators are mitigated.
We are neutral between 1.00 and 1.01.
We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position:
- Long above 1.01. The breakout of 1.02 will give a new buy signal
- Short below 1.00. The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of June 22th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis