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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible. USD As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99. GBP Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...

While the euro remained bearish against its main currency rivals throughout yesterday's trading session, it avoided falling to a new four-month low against the US dollar. The marketplace was unusually calm, as a bank holiday in Europe resulted in limited movements among the most traded currency pairs. As we close out the week, traders will want to note that another slow news day may result in low liquidity in the marketplace. Typically, low liquidity situations can result in exaggerated movements among currency pairs and commodities for seemingly no reason. Any mention of additional euro-zone worries may result in a significant drop for the euro. Economic News USD - Manufacturing Data Causes USD to Tumble The US dollar tumbled vs. the Japanese yen during the afternoon session yesterday, ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Industrial producion is a imely reminder that firstquarter GDP will likely show a contracion." - Marin van Vliet, an economist at ING Industrial producion in the Eurozone contracted unexpectedly in March, Eurostat data showed on Monday. Producion fell 0.3 per cent from February, when it rose 0.8 per cent. USD "The fear factor is definitely higher." - Madelynn Matlock, a fund manager at Hunington Asset Advisor U.S. stocks retreated on Monday on a poliical impasse in Greece. GBP "I can’t see even after the next Greek election a government appearing that will be able to do anything else than perhaps manage the Greek exit." - Simon Sole, chief execuive officer of Exclusive Analysis Ltd. U.K. stocks tumbled on Monday. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 1.97%, or ...

(Reuters) - European shares rose while the single currency languished near 10-day lows on Thursday as investors waited to see if a gloomier economic outlook would prompt the European Central Bank to hint at further stimulus measures at a policy meeting. Fears in the debt market that the deepening euro zone recession and a two-notch downgrade would hit Spain's ability to fund itself eased after the government sold new three- and five-year debt although its borrowing costs rose sharply. But the spotlight is on the world's major central banks after surprisingly weak economic data from the United States and across the European Monetary Union (EMU) rekindled concerns about the strength of the global economic recovery. "Given the recent weakness in the EMU economy indicators, we suspect the ...

The Week Ahead Highlights US employment data in focus Bank of Japan underwhelms RBA likely to cut The SNB talks tough on the Swissie Is the UK economy really that weak? The Eurozone's growth pact US employment data in focus Earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its 2-day policy meeting. The bank kept policy on hold and upgraded the economic assessment, however comments from Ben Bernanke - which did not provide any new insight in our view - kept Treasury yields low, equity markets supported, and the dollar soft with QE3 speculation back into focus. Fed projections showed upwards revision to real GDP growth with forecasts of 2.4%-2.9% for 2012 up from the prior 2.2%-2.7% estimate and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 7.8%-8% ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Core bonds hit by profit taking, non-core bonds gain - Risk aversion ebbed away following Monday's rout, leading to some modest profit taking in core bonds. Non-core bonds did well and yield spreads versus Germany narrowed. Spain and the Netherlands outperformed yesterday. Investors will stay largely sideways today, ahead of this evening's FOMC statement and press conference of Mr. Bernanke. - Currencies: Euro slightly higher as tensions ease - On Tuesday, most markets saw a setback on Monday's sharp sell-off in risky assets. In this move, EUR/USD returned to the 1.32 area, but a technically significant break didn't occur. EUR/GBP came near the 0.8143 August 2010 low. Today, the focus of currency trading will be on the Fed. The ...

Fundamental News Today’s highlights: FOMC Member Fisher Speaks (U.S, 16:30 GMT) Sentix Investor Confidence (EUR, 8:30 GMT) CB Leading Index (MoM) (GB, 09:00 GMT) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called for new steps to curb “shadow banking” operating beyond standard oversight while saying the economy has far to go before fully recovering from the credit crisis. “The heavy human and economic costs of the crisis underscore the importance of taking all necessary steps to avoid a repeat of the events of the past few years,” Bernanke said yesterday in a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia, according to an article published by Bloomberg, Tuesday. The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary easing to counter deflation, resisting pressure from lawmakers who five days ...

A little more than a year ago, a very successful professional investor declared, “If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.” Since that declaration, house prices have continued drifting lower in most parts of the country. The Case-Shiller index of national home prices is down about 4% year over year. Even so, we’re betting this professional investor was merely early…not wrong. US housing isn’t just cheap; it is the cheapest it has been in more than 40 years. And when one considers the possibility that inflation may rear its head soon, housing looks even cheaper still. If you think we’re crazy, you’re not alone. The housing market is a complete bust right now. The following ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD China‘s official manufacturing PMI released over the weekend came in at 53.1 (cons. 50.8), substantially beating consensus opinion. The Australian dollar was the main beneficiary and climbed over 100 pips at the Asia open, although the rally eventually lost some steam after a very weak Australian building approvals report. The weekend PMI was all the more surprising given investors had been mentally prepared for a soft print after the weak private sector flash estimate released over a week ago. The weekend PMI is likely to continue to set a positive tone throughout the week, although US data releases such as ISM and non-farm payrolls will also be key. In particular, the data comes at a crucial moment for AUD given the RBA is scheduled to ...