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As The Gap BetweenTitle:
The Endgame of the Greek Crisis
Forex News and Events:
It has taken two-and-a-half years, and nearly USD 300bn of IMF/EU funds for markets to finally weigh in a more probable than not exit of the debt-laden country. Greece’s EMU exit is imminent for the second time in the last six months. Surprisingly though, the trigger for the recent gloomy expectations for Greece was not exclusively of an economic nature but also politics. During May 6 elections, the Greeks expressed their unwillingness to abide by the agreed-upon austerity measures. It wouldn’t have been a very dangerous position had Greece been solvent, but regardless of EU officials’ reassurance of continued help for Greece throughout the process, the country would run out of funds for the next installments due end of June and early July. In addition to markets ...
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Euro rebound stalls, focus shifts to EU summit
(Reuters) - The euro's rebound from four-month lows stalled on Tuesday, failing to break above technical resistance, though traders said selling could be limited at least until an informal meeting of European leaders this week.
Traders have been reducing their massive bets against the common currency in the past couple of days, taking note of prospects - however slender - that EU leaders may agree measures to bolster investor confidence in the euro zone on Wednesday.
With speculators' short positions on the euro at a record high, traders were wary of the potential for short-squeeze, despite worries about stability of the banking system in Spain and political gridlock in Greece.
"If someone is selling the euro now, I would rather use that as a chance to take profits (from euro short ...
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Oil turns upwards, Greece still weighs
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose back towards $108 per barrel on Monday, after last week's falls, supported by tension between Western countries and Iran as talks were resuming this week and further lifted by the possibility of growth stimulus in China.
Fears of a Greek exit from the euro continued to weigh, however.
A summit of the Group of Eight major economies at the weekend failed to deliver any signal Europe would act quickly to address the risk of a chaotic Greek exit from the euro, leaving investors on alert and curb an upturn in oil prices.
"Gains may be short-lived as EU politicians as usual are having a hard time agreeing on anything. However (there is) an interesting week ahead with the European debt crisis posing a risk on the downside and the potential for nuclear talks with ...
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Is Facebook Weighing on the Euro or is the Euro Weighing on Facebook?
It has been a lacklustre day post the G8 meeting at the weekend (yawn), the drop in Mark Zuckerberg's net worth seems to be more of a talking point than the continuing Eurozone crisis. But, the Eurozone banking index gives it all away. Bankia, Santander and the usual Spanish suspects all turned lower as we headed into London's lunchtime, which dragged the overall European banking sector down to its lowest level since November 2011. Within a matter of hours EURUSD followed suit and is making fresh lows of the day at 1.2730 (at the time of writing).
Official EU disappointment
Although a temporary bottom may be in place at 1.2624 in EURUSD, the G8 summit highlighted a couple of things that remain negative for the single currency: 1, how divided the Eurozone (and the world) is about how to ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 21th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD has opened on a small bullish gap but continues to move just above the support at 0.7550.
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (dotted purple lines).
The bearish movement seems to be lead by a bearish slant (purple line).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.77 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.7550 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.75 and 0.7450
In case of return above 0.77, we will be neutral between this level and 0.78.
The breakout of 0.78 will give a buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 18th, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
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Analysis: In India, muddled leadership leaves economy adrift
"Dear God," wrote economist Rajeev Malik as he called on the Almighty to help India's "rudderless" government in a biting critique that underscored a growing frustration at home and abroad with the stewardship of Asia's third-largest economy.
Writing in India's Business Standard newspaper, the well-respected Malik echoed the exasperation of Indian and foreign business groups pressing for the government to swiftly implement major economic reforms and formulate a coherent strategy to deal with its mounting problems.
Another newspaper said India could be heading to a Greek-style crisis.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress Party blames unreliable allies in his coalition government for blocking major reforms aimed at opening up the economy to much-needed foreign investment and tackling ...
Title:
Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
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Technical analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on May 18th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/GBP pair:
The pair EUR/GBP has continued its rebound and is currently testing a pullback on the resistance at 0.8050.
All indicators are bullish.
The bearish gap which ocurred at the opening is still not filled in.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still moving into a bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8050 is resistance.
A return below 0.80 will comfort our bearish feeling.
The breakout of 0.7950 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.79.
In case of return above 0.8050, we will be neutral between this level and 0.81.
The breakout of 0.81 will give a buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP pair of May 17th, 2012
EUR/GBP Analysis
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