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As Manufacturing ImprovedTitle:
Euro Rebounds, Focus On The UK Inflation
The euro (EUR) edged higher to 1.2824 rebounding from 1.2724 against the US dollar on hopes that EU leaders will agree on steps to fight the debt crisis in Europe. Investors expect the French President Francois Hollande to suggest joint eurozone bonds at the EU meeting in Brussels on May 23. The idea of joint bonds can help with funding difficulties for some heavily-indebted eurozone countries but that policy has been rejected by Germany before. EU leaders are also expected to focus more on growth and ways to help Greece stay in the euro. The single currency remains under pressure as the market is worried about Spain’s growing financial problems as well as developments in Greece ahead of a repeat election in June.
The US dollar (USD) stumbles against a basket of currencies on an improved ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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BoJ Rate Decision the Highlight for Asia this Week
Asian markets are waiting heavy data during the upcoming week starting with the Bank of Japan decision and the release of HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI for China.
The Bank of Japan has left rates between 0.0% and 0.10%, in order to support the nation’s growth against the current instability and although inevitable will not change rates, investors await any move with more stimulus as the USDJPY falls below 80 levels again.
The Japanese economy showed signs of recovery where last week the decline in machinery orders slowed in March, as well as recording more-than-expected expansion during the first quarter to begin exiting deflation that faced the nation’s economy since 2011.
The BOJ is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged and keep monitoring markets closely with a slight ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible.
USD
As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99.
GBP
Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Mario Draghi, the ECB President, insisted on Greece to stay in the Euro bloc during his public speech on Wednesday regarding the possibility of Greece withdrawal from the Eurozone. Nevertheless, according to him, the ECB will stick to its anti-inflation mandate. The ECB President's comments came after Irish and Belgian central banks reported that Greek exit would not be disastrous for the Eurozone.
USD
Jobless claims in the U.S. didn't live up to the expectations that it will decrease by 5K and remained unchanged, at 370K level, in the week from 6th to 12th of May. Amount of people on rolling unemployment claims increased by around 18K while the number of people on prolonged payments decreased by around 45K. 31 out of 52 states or territory's reported ...
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Greece Fears Pressure, BoE Cuts Growth Forecast
Greece Fears Pressure, BoE Cuts Growth Forecast
The euro (EUR) recovered a little yesterday against the dollar edging higher to 1.2758 from 1.2681 as risk sentiment in the market improved slightly. Investors remain worried about Greece's ability to avoid bankruptcy and stay in the euro ahead of Greece's second election. Greece put a senior judge Panagiotis Pikramenos to be the leader of the Greek caretaker government until election on June 17. The single currency may remain under pressure on fears that a Greek exit from the euro may have a serious impact on countries such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. Some Greek banks were moved to an emergency funding assistance program due to the deteriorating quality of their capital.
The US dollar (USD) strengthened against a basket of currencies ...
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Euro Sell-Off Accelerates As Greece Will Hold Now Elections
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Fresh elections in Greece further support core bonds
- German bund came off the contract highs at the start of the session on better German Q1 GDP data. The move didn't last long however and the announcement of fresh Greek elections marked an intraday U-turn. This morning, the German Bund future and US Note future once again reach new contract highs.
- Currencies: euro sell-off accelerates as Greece will hold now elections.
- On Tuesday morning it looked temporary that the euro might enjoy some breathing space as the German Q1 growth was much stronger than expected. However, the rebound had no momentum at all. The euro was again hammered as talks on the formation of the Greek government collapsed. Is the euro heading for a free fall? ...
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