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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Stoxx Europe 600 index have dropped for third consecutive day and reached the lowest level since the start of this year as specialists speculate that elections in Greece could take place as early as 10 of June. The index lost 0.5% of its value by noon in London and around 10% from its peak this year in mid-March.
USD
Facebook increases the share offering by 25% to 421.2M shares to collect near $16B. At the offering's price of $34-$38 per share Facebook is rushing towards the largest technology IPO in the history. Production of utilities, mines and factory's in the U.S. surpassed expected 0.6% level and increased by 1.1% in April.
GBP
The number of unemployed people for January-March decreased to 2.63 million, 45,000 down on the quarter, the Office for ...
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Housing Starts Break 700K for the Third Time Since 2008
Housing Starts Break 700K for the Third Time Since 2008
Housing starts rose to 717K units in April, ahead of market expectations for 685K. Revisions were also positive, bringing the level of housing starts in March to 699K from a previously reported 654K. Housing starts are up 29.9% from their levels a year ago.
The rise in total starts was led by multi-family starts, which rose 3.2% to 225K. Singlefamily starts were up 2.3% to 492K units.
Building permits, on the other hand, fell 7.0% to 715K units. The decline was due to a 20.8% fall in multi-family permits, following a 32.3% increase in March.
Key Implications
Housing starts appear to have reached a new plateau above 700K in the first few months of 2012. While we do not expect a major resurgence in housing construction over the ...
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Wall Street Goes Higher On Housing Starts, Industrial Production Data
Wall Street opened green higher on Wednesday, following the three-day slide for the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index, as better than expected housing starts and industrial production reignited optimism about the economy.
American equities rose at the opening following governmental reports that showed output at manufacturing, mines and utilities increased 1.1 percent in April. Homebuilders broke the ground on more homes than forecast in the same period.
Housing starts rose 2.6 percent to a 717 thousand annual rate last month, the Commerce Department reported early morning. Analysts called for a median annual rate of 685 thousand. Building permits fell to 715 thousand in the same period.
Sentiments went somehow neutral with ongoing political crisis in Greece and speculation the nation will ...
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Crude recovers some losses but its momentum remain negative
After falling to the lowest in six months after talks to form a new Greek government failed yesterday, crude recovered some the losses trading around the $93.00 level as the dollar is losing momentum trading around 81.25.
Crude is trading as of this writing around today’s opening at $93.12, while the lowest for today is found at $91.79, the lowest in six months, while the highest is found at $93.42. Brent is trading around $111.46 after falling 0.69%.
The Greek President Karolos Papoulias failed yesterday to form a ruling coalition, raising concerns that Greece will to exit the euro zone after June’s elections during which the far-left anti-bailout party Syriza is expected to win.
Also weighing down on sentiment was the expected rise in the US crude inventories during the week ending in ...
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A mild relief on Merkel, upbeat U.S. data
After the deep selloff markets recover some of earlier losses triggered by fears of “Grexit”, after politicians failed to find a common ground and name a new coalition government. Meanwhile Angela Merkel in an interview with CNBC reiterated following many European politicians “I want Greece to stay in the Euro” giving markets a minor relief, and a reason to rebound in a normal pullback after being oversold.
The EUR/USD decently off lows, the pair has traded the lowest since January today at 1.2680, and currently trading around 1.2750. Meanwhile, U.S. housing sector continues to show recovery, as building permits fell to 715,000 last month, however March permits were revised upward to 769,000. Housing starts rose to 717,000 units, while March reading of 654,000 was revised to 699,000. On ...
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Housing starts rebound in April, permits fall
Housing starts rose more than expected in April, according to a government report on Wednesday that offered signs of a nascent housing recovery, even though permits for future building fell after touching a 3-1/2 year high the prior month.
The Commerce Department said housing starts increased 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000 units. March's starts were revised up to a 699,000-unit pace from a previously reported 654,000 unit rate.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to 680,000-unit rate. Compared to April last year, residential construction was up 29.9 percent.
The housing market is showing some signs of life after collapsing six years ago, but remains hobbled by a glut of unsold homes.
However, rising demand for rentals, which has ...
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USD is Preferred Haven
USD is Preferred Haven
USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures.
EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...
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Euro Sell-Off Accelerates As Greece Will Hold Now Elections
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Fresh elections in Greece further support core bonds
- German bund came off the contract highs at the start of the session on better German Q1 GDP data. The move didn't last long however and the announcement of fresh Greek elections marked an intraday U-turn. This morning, the German Bund future and US Note future once again reach new contract highs.
- Currencies: euro sell-off accelerates as Greece will hold now elections.
- On Tuesday morning it looked temporary that the euro might enjoy some breathing space as the German Q1 growth was much stronger than expected. However, the rebound had no momentum at all. The euro was again hammered as talks on the formation of the Greek government collapsed. Is the euro heading for a free fall? ...
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