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Arrest The Euro’s DeclineTitle:
US payrolls release
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
In a typical prelude to aUSpayrolls release, FX markets traded in very tight ranges in Asia until newswires reported speculation of a nuclear incident inNorth Korea. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo later rejected the idea, but not before EURUSD broke to new 15-month lows, and AUDUSD dropped 20 pips. Expectations for a buoyant payrolls report are still running high after the December ADP employment report came in strongly above expectations at +325k. Our analysts note though that the figures may not be a forward indicator of stronger official BLS payroll numbers today, and they keep their forecast for private payrolls unchanged at +150k (headline +125k).
End-of-year reconciliations of payroll records typically result in an artificially high ADP ...
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